Arkansas Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Razorbacks in 2026
By Adam Spencer
Published:
The Arkansas Razorbacks are entering a new era in 2026. Out is Sam Pittman. In is former Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield.
While the decision to hire Silverfield wasn’t met with the same enthusiasm as some other SEC hires this offseason (looking at you, LSU), it could prove to be a shrewd move in the long run.
But today, we’re not here to discuss the long run. We’re here to discuss the 2026 season.
This is part of our annual Crystal Ball series here at Saturday Down South, where we predict every regular-season game for each SEC team. Here’s who we’ve done so far:
Now let’s get into it with the 2026 Arkansas Razorbacks:
One Big Question: Can the defense stop anyone?
The story of the Arkansas defense in 2025 was more of a tragedy. The Hogs finished 16th (also known as last) in the SEC in scoring, allowing 33.8 points per game. That was 3.6 points per game worse than No. 15 Mississippi State.
Arkansas allowed the second most rush yards per game (185.9) and finished 13th in pass defense (239.3 ypg). The passing defense likely would have been even worse, but the Hogs suffered a couple of blowout losses that saw opponents running out the clock instead of airing it out.
The offense, by comparison, was actually really good. The Razorbacks were second in the SEC in rushing yards per game, 5th in pass yards per game and 5th in scoring offense.
There were 2 problems with the Arkansas statistical profile in 2025 — it couldn’t get stops and it couldn’t hold onto the ball. The Hogs were an SEC-worst -11 in turnover margin last season. QB Taylen Green was a dynamic player, but he made too many mistakes in key situations. Likely QB1 KJ Jackson will probably be a bit more careful with the football this fall. If the Razorbacks even experience a slight regression to the mean when it comes to turnovers, which are somewhat fluky every season, it’ll shine an even bigger spotlight on the defense.
So, can the defense take a significant step forward under the very-experienced Ron Roberts?
Let’s start with Quincy Rhodes Jr. coming off the edge. He’s a fearsome player and could work his way into the Round 1 mix in the 2027 NFL Draft. It’s always nice to have a guy like that, right?
Elsewhere? There’s not a ton to like. Safety Miguel Mitchell is the team’s top returning tackler, making 52 stops in 2025 (good for 6th on the team). Khmori House, a cornerback who transferred from North Carolina, is an interesting piece, making 81 combined tackles in 2025. That’s not necessarily a good thing for a cornerback, though. When your safeties and corners are your leading tacklers, that’s usually not a good sign.
Bradley Shaw had 50 tackles (5 for a loss) and 2 sacks last year at the linebacker spot. Can he up those numbers in a big way? The Hogs will also rely heavily on Howard transfer LB Ja’Quavion Smith, who had 49 tackles in 2025 (11 for a loss) and 4.5 sacks.
Elsewhere, there are plenty of questions about a defense in desperate need of answers.
Arkansas’s Projected Wins Total
Here’s what Kalshi has to say about Arkansas’s projected wins in 2026:
- Arkansas to win 4 or more games: 62%
- Arkansas to win 3 or fewer games: 42%
Use Kalshi promo code SDS when you click here to sign up today and you’ll earn a $25 bonus when you trade $25 worth of contracts:
Game-by-Game Predictions
Here’s how I see the 2026 season going for the Arkansas Razorbacks:
Week 1: vs. North Alabama (W)
Boom. The Ryan Silverfield era gets off to a roaring start with a convincing win over an admittedly less-than-stellar opponent. Still, a win is a win!
Week 2: at Utah (L)
There’s usually one of these wonky nonconference games every year, where we see an SEC team head west for what the home team almost always schedules as a late kickoff time. Auburn went out to Cal a few years ago. Mississippi State and Arizona State had a home-and-home series that featured a game in Tempe. They’re tough matchups for SEC squads and, even without head coach Kyle Whittingham, who is now at Michigan, Utah is the better team in this one.
Week 3: vs. Georgia (L)
Welcome to the SEC, Mr. Silverfield. Your first SEC home game is against a Georgia team that has won back-to-back SEC titles and is a College Football Playoff mainstay. Good luck.
Week 4: vs. Tulsa (W)
The Hogs get back in the win column and gain some confidence with a victory over a Tulsa squad that ranks No. 105 (out of 138 FBS squads) in ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Golden Hurricane were terrible against the run last year, and didn’t appear to improve it much this offseason. Braylen Russell goes off in this win.
Week 5: at Texas A&M (L)
Now we’re back to SEC play and Silverfield’s first road trip is a brutal one. He has to lead the Hogs into Kyle Field to take on the Texas A&M Aggies and the 12th Man. This is a game the Aggies can’t afford to lose if they want to make it back to the Playoff. Quincy Rhodes Jr. will make Marcel Reed run more than he wants to, but the Aggies will get the job done in College Station.
Week 6: vs. Tennessee (L)
Tennessee has a strong offensive line and a solid running back in DeSean Bishop. Arkansas allowed over 185 yards per game to opposing rushing attacks last season and I think that’s an area where the Hogs will struggle again in 2026. The Vols dominate time of possession and pick up a comfortable win.
Week 7: at Vanderbilt (L)
This is probably the prediction that will make Arkansas fans the most upset, but Clark Lea has made it so the Vanderbilt Commodores are no longer pushovers, especially at home. This is about the time of the year where freshman QB Jared Curtis should be hitting his stride. He’ll put up some numbers through the air and hand Arkansas another loss.
Week 8: OFF
Riding a 3-game losing streak and sitting at 0-4 in SEC play, the Hogs will welcome a week off before facing rival Mizzou.
Week 9: vs. Mizzou (L)
Ahmad Hardy should be back at full strength by this point in the season, and probably much earlier. I’m a firm believer that Austin Simmons is a good QB despite losing his job at Ole Miss to Trinidad Chambliss early last year. Mizzou’s defense should be… serviceable. That will likely be enough for the Tigers to make it 5-straight Battle Line Rivalry wins over the Hogs.
Week 10: at Auburn (L)
Silverfield brought a few key pieces of his offense at Memphis with him to Fayetteville. New Auburn Tigers head coach Alex Golesh brought basically his entire offense, including QB Byrum Brown and almost every pass catcher from last year’s USF squad. That, combined with the fact that this game is at Jordan-Hare Stadium, is why I’m picking Auburn.
Week 11: vs. South Carolina (W)
Arkansas won’t go winless in SEC play this year! The Hogs win a thriller against a South Carolina team that enters Week 11 after 3 weeks of facing Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Braylen Russell has his best outing of the year in SEC play and the Hogs pull off the win in front of the home crowd.
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Week 12: at Texas (L)
The Razorbacks end the year with a brutal pair of games. The Texas Longhorns will likely be gunning for a Playoff spot and possibly a spot in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. Arch Manning, Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo, Hollywood Smothers, Raleek Brown — that’s a tough offense for anyone to stop, let alone a defense that figures to rank toward the bottom of the league in most categories.
Week 13: vs. LSU (L)
In the final week of the regular season, an Arkansas team with not much to play for will face Lane Kiffin and an LSU Tigers squad that might be playing for everything. I have LSU making the Playoff as the No. 9 seed this year. Considering the Tigers could have 2 losses by this point in the regular season, this is a game they absolutely must win. They won’t take the Hogs lightly.
2026 Projection: 3-9 (1-8)
The Hogs lost 6 games by 1 score in 2025 and went 0-8 in SEC play. I expect more of the same this fall, albeit with a nice SEC victory to hang their hats on. Progress? Yes. Look for this team to finish with a slightly better defense. But this is a tough league, so the wins will have to wait until at least 2027.
Silverfield will need to hit the portal hard this coming offseason to improve top-end talent and depth. He knows that. The 2027 season is the one that should be judged more critically as long as there are a few positive signs along the way in 2026.
12-Team Playoff Berth? No
This should be pretty self-explanatory. The first step for Silverfield and the Hogs will be to get back to any bowl game, let alone the Playoff. Some progress is made in 2026, but the journey starts in earnest in Year 2.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
