It’s a new regime and a fresh start for Auburn in 2021. What that means remains to be seen, but the anticipation for the Bryan Harsin era is palpable.
Here are some best- and worst-case scenarios that could shape the upcoming season for the Tigers as they work to climb back up the pecking order in the SEC West Division.
Best-case
1.Bo Nix develops into an All-SEC QB
The 3rd-year starter is poised to take the next step in his development. By most evaluations, Nix has underperformed in 2 seasons under center despite an interesting statistic that shows only Ole Miss’ Matt Coral returning with more passing yards in the SEC.
If Nix can latch onto Harsin’s offense, under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, it would go a long way in helping the Tigers improve upon last year’s 6-5 record. It certainly appears that as Nix goes, so go the Tigers. So, his development in the new system is critical to Auburn’s success in 2021. If he doesn’t take the next step, how long will the new coaching staff wait? Transfer TJ Finley will see snaps one way or another.
2. Offensive line develops into a game-changing force
This ties in with Nix’s development. If an offensive line, which was rebuilt last season, has matured like most believe it has, the offense could be purring like a kitten, a very large one, come time for SEC play.
The Tigers play all 4 nonconference games before opening conference play. A trip to Penn State in Week 3 will be a bit daunting, but the other 3 are against teams that will be classified as “cupcakes.” That should give the boys in the trenches plenty of time to jell.
3. Ceiling record/bowl landing spot
So, we’re talking best-case scenario here. The first step, a giant one at that, would be an upset of Penn State in Happy Valley. A win there would likely push the Tigers to a 4-0 start. A more realistic beginning would have the Tigers at 3-1 entering SEC play. And then the gauntlet begins.
The Tigers open conference play with one of the toughest back-to-backs anywhere. At LSU to kick off league play, followed by the Georgia game at Jordan-Hare. A split of those two games would be about as best-case scenario as it gets considering the Tigers haven’t bitten the Dogs since 2017, although they’ve split the last 6 games at home with Georgia, and winning in Baton Rouge hasn’t been any easier over the years. Auburn hasn’t won in Tiger Stadium this century.
Two of the next three games are on the road, at Arkansas and Texas A&M, with a home game against Ole Miss sandwiched in between. Taking 2 of 3 there would be huge and certainly a possibility.
Home games with Mississippi State and Alabama, with a visit to South Carolina wedged between those closes out the regular season. Again, 2 of 3 wins there are certainly possible.
If you tally it all up that’s an 8-4 season, with 3 road losses and an Iron Bowl setback, which still should translate into a decent bowl game. Perhaps a Gator Bowl invitation is in the offing? We shall see. It should be interesting.
Worst-case
1. Injury to Tank Bigsby
The Tigers can’t afford an injury to this up-and-coming All-American. He will not only spark the run game, but also help Nix keep defenses honest as he continues his development under center. Sure Shaun Shivers has proven to be a serviceable running back when called upon, but Bigsby makes the run game, and consequently Auburn’s offense rolling. He is, without question, the most important player on Auburn’s roster and arguably the most important on any offense in the SEC.
2. WRs don’t develop
The Tigers lost their top 7 receivers from last year — and there was a sizeable gap after the Seth Williams-Anthony Schwartz-Eli Stove trio. The returning group accounted for just 2 TD receptions last year, so quick development will be critical to Nix’s growth as well as the offense as a whole.
Georgia transfer Demetris Robertson should help tremendously, but if he doesn’t get help from the remainder of the bunch, he’ll be easily negated with double teams.
3. Floor losses
ESPN’s FPI projects a 7-5 season. The Tigers have to break even in SEC road games or else this season could turn nasty. An early loss at Arkansas after the monstrous back-to-back with LSU and Georgia could be catastrophic. Looking down the schedule, a home loss to Mississippi State could be equally distressing, as would a loss on the road at South Carolina.
All are possibilities that would put Harsin on the hot seat even before he ever settled into the job. The floor, then, would be a 5-7 freefall that likely would include key injuries and inconsistent quarterback play.
Glenn Sattell is an award-winning freelance writer for Saturday Down South.
