Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Clemson. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 17-team ACC.
Previously: Boston College | Cal
* * * * * * *
Survival of the fittest.
It’s not just a phrase to describe the process of natural selection in nature. It’s just as relevant to the ever-changing landscape of college football.
There’s a reason the top programs stay on top. And it’s not because they’re bigger, deeper and faster than the opposition. Although that helps, the Alabamas, Ohio States and Georgias the world maintain their spots atop of the food chain because of their ability to evolve and embrace new rules and concepts as they come along.
Things such as the transfer portal and players being compensated for their name, image and likeness.
Adapt or get left behind.
It’s a choice Clemson’s Dabo Swinney may soon have to make.
The winningest coach in school history and 2-time national champion has built a program that has become the gold standard of the ACC since taking over for Tommy Bowden midway through the 2008 season. The Tigers have amassed 8 conference championships, 6 College Football Playoff appearances and 2 national titles on his watch. But there have been signs of slippage over the past 3 seasons.
The drop-off hasn’t been dramatic. But it has been noticeable.
Last year’s team finished 6th in the ACC behind Louisville, NC State and both Techs. Even though this year’s team, at No. 14 in the recently released AP preseason poll, will start the year outside the national top 10 for the first time since 2015, Swinney is confident that his team is closer to a comeback than most are predicting.
“You’re talking about a few plays and the narrative is different,” he said. “That’s how close it is when you’re staying to make a College Football Playoff Final Four.”
Despite Swinney’s transfer portal aversion, this year’s Tigers have the talent to bounce back. They’ve added a pair of 5-star receivers to an offense led by returning starter Cade Klubnik at quarterback and a potential 1,000-yard rusher in Phil Mafah. The defense that has traditionally been their backbone is once again filled with potential 1st-round NFL Draft picks, including star linebacker Barrett Carter.
There’s also some momentum in the program after finishing 2023 on a 5-game winning streak. And a hunger to silence their growing number of doubters.
“We see everything. We keep receipts,” Carter said. “We’re tired of the disrespect. We know we had dudes the past couple of years, and we’ve fallen short in those years. It’s time for us to show what Clemson is about and bring Clemson back up to the top.”
Let’s break down the chances of that happening.
Transfer tracker
It’s a well-documented fact that Clemson is the only FBS program other than the service academies to not take in a transfer this season. But contrary to popular belief, Swinney insists that didn’t happen by design.
“We’ve signed a guy out of the portal 2 out of the past 3 years,” Swinney said. “This past year we had 1 spot where we were trying to get a couple of guys and we didn’t get them. It takes 2 to get that done. But I like our roster.
“The portal is a great tool for the players, a great tool for coaches. But for us, we just haven’t been a full-blown portal recruiting team because of the type of kids we’re getting and the retention we’ve had.”
The 2 transfers Swinney mentioned were both backup quarterbacks, Hunter Johnson in 2022 and Paul Tyson last year, who combined to throw 10 passes for 52 yards. Clemson hasn’t had a transfer make a significant contribution since the portal came into existence in 2018.
Swinney’s aversion to the portal is widely believed to be a reason why he wasn’t considered for the vacancy at his alma mater Alabama when Nick Saban walked away last winter. That’s not to say he would have left Clemson. But if he ever does, he said his approach to the portal would change drastically.
“If I took a job somewhere else, I’d be the greatest portal recruiter ever because half my roster would be gone and I’d have to go put it together,” Swinney said at the ACC Kickoff media event last month. “But if you study our team, our retention rate is as good as anybody in the country.”
Fresh faces
Among the many byproducts of Swinney’s avoidance of the transfer portal is the need for true freshmen to step in and make immediate impacts. The Tigers had 3 players fill that bill a year ago – defensive linemen Peter Woods and TJ Parker, and leading receiver Tyler Brown. This year’s class of nationally ranked recruits might have to play an even more important role given the number and caliber of players they’re replacing and the hole they’re being asked to plug.
“We’re very consistent with evaluating and recruiting our top prospects year in, year out,” Swinney said. “We think we’ve signed another excellent class. We’ll hold judgment on that until they go out there and do it. Certainly, on paper, we have some talented young men.”
Among the most talented – and important – is 5-star linebacker Sammy Brown. The 6-2, 235-pound Georgia native is the nation’s No. 1 prospect at his position, according to 247Sports. If that wasn’t a high enough standard to live up to, the ante will be upped even further because of the role he projects to fill as the replacement for All-American Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
He’s off to a promising start. Brown enrolled early and immediately caught the attention of returning All-ACC linebacker Carter with his physicality and aggressiveness.
“Sammy is wired differently,” Carter said. “ He’s come in hungry and driven with no ego at all. I’m glad that we have him in this program.”
On the offensive side of the ball, quarterback Klubnik is even happier about the arrival of blue chip additions Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore to beef up a lackluster receiving corps.
Of the 2, Wesco stands the best chance of making an immediate positive impression. His performance during spring practice, including a touchdown catch in the Orange-White Game, has led Klubnik to anoint him as “a dude” and “a difference maker.” Asked why he thinks so highly of his new teammate, Klubnik answered simply: “You’ll see.”
We will soon enough.
Klubnik’s time to shine
Klubnik hasn’t been a bust during his time at Clemson. But as the top-rated quarterback prospect in his class and the heir apparent to No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick Trevor Lawrence, he hasn’t exactly lived up to his high expectations either. Now entering his 3rd college season and 2nd as the Tigers’ full-time starter under the guidance of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, the pressure is on Klubnik to raise his game to an elite level.
“I want to start off really quickly in Week 1 and just continue to get better,” he said. “I’m just trying to be the best leader that I can be.”
Klubnik got off to a shaky start in 2023 and took a lot of the heat for the early season struggles that transformed the Tigers from preseason favorite to ACC also-ran by the midway point in the schedule. Some of the criticism was earned. The talented, but erratic sophomore developed a turnover problem, with 5 of his 9 interceptions and all 5 of his lost fumbles coming during his team’s 4-4 start.
But he improved steadily as the season progressed, as did his team. Clemson finished with 5 straight wins, including a Gator Bowl victory against Kentucky in which Klubnik drove the Tigers to a game-winning touchdown in the final minute. His performance in the come-from-behind victory raised hope that he’s finally ready to fully blossom in 2024.
“It’s always great when you’re not starting over and you’ve got a guy that’s grown and had some experience under his belt,” Swinney said. “Cade is a great young man. A great talent. … We’re excited about Year 2 with him as our starter. Also with Garrett. It will be Cade’s first time to have the same (coordinator) in the same system. I think we all expect to see some great growth from that.”
Game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (L)
This game won’t affect the Tigers’ pursuit of another ACC championship and a return to the College Football Playoff. But it will give Swinney an idea of how competitive his team can be nationally. Pulling off an upset would be a much more reasonable ask if the game was at Death Valley or at a friendlier “neutral site” like the matchup 2 years ago at Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium. But this is in Atlanta. In the heart of Dawg country. Good luck.
Week 2: vs. Appalachian State (W)
It took 2 overtimes for North Carolina to put the Mountaineers away in Chapel Hill last season. And this year, Shawn Clark’s team has designs of earning the Group of 5 spot in the Playoff. Clemson better not sleep on App State. This could turn out badly if it does.
Week 3: Open
Week 4: vs. NC State (W)
The early season schedule doesn’t get any easier. State has won 2 of the past 3 from Clemson. But both of those victories came in Raleigh. This year’s game is at Death Valley, where the Tigers have won 10 straight from the Wolfpack. The Textile Bowl trophy returns to the Upstate.
Week 5: vs. Stanford (W)
Finally, a breather.
Week 6: at Florida State (L)
The showdown between the past 2 ACC champions isn’t just a potential showdown for this year’s regular season title. It’s also a clash of philosophies between the transfer-laden Seminoles and homegrown Tigers. Not to mention a reunion game for a certain former Clemson quarterback who now plays for Florida State. DJ Uiagaleli gets the last laugh.
Week 7: at Wake Forest (W)
Speaking of DJU, it took arguably his best performance in Clemson orange to pull out a double overtime victory the last time the Tigers played in Winston-Salem 2 seasons ago. This is a much different Deacons team. Klubnik won’t have to work as hard to get the victory this time.
Week 8: vs. Virginia (W)
Another opportunity to start building momentum for the back half of the schedule.
Week 9: Open
Week 10: vs. Louisville (W)
The Cardinals managed to avoid Clemson on its way to the ACC Championship Game a year ago. They aren’t as fortunate this year.
Week 11: at Virginia Tech (L)
Forget Enter Sandman. The Tigers are going to have their hands full trying to corral Kyron Drones and the stable of playmakers that surround him. And sackmeister Antwaun Ryland-Powell is the worst nightmare of a quarterback prone to making bad decisions. As Klubnik has shown a tendency to be.
Week 12: at Pittsburgh (W)
The Panthers are in rebuild mode. But weather in mid-November could potentially be a factor.
Week 13: vs. The Citadel (W)
Take care of business early and get the starters off the field. They’ll be needed for a much more important game against another in-state rival next week.
Week 14: vs. South Carolina (W)
The Tigers have a score to settle after the Gamecocks snapped their 40-game home winning streak in their most recent visit to Death Valley in 2022. They aren’t going to let that happen again..
2024 projection: 9-3 (6-2 ACC)
#ClemsonFamily
This isn’t just another season for Swinney. It’s a referendum on how his program is run and whether the philosophy that has worked so well in the past is still sustainable in the era of unlimited transfers and NIL.
It’s not a coincidence that all 5 teams that finished ahead of the Tigers in the ACC standings last year built their programs with a heavy reliance on the portal. And some have brought in even more free agents to reload for 2024.
Clemson, meanwhile, is relying on the continued development of its returning veterans – especially Klubnik – and the ability of its prized freshman class to live up to its vast promise sooner rather than later.
If that happens and the Tigers return to the top of the ACC, or at least into the top 2 that earn spots in the league championship game, Swinney can declare victory and go on with his business as usual. If it doesn’t, he’ll be faced with a similar choice to the one that led Saban to walk away from Alabama.
Adapt or get left behind.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
