Only 1 school — Oregon — reached the College Football Playoff without a regular-season loss last year. Halfway through this 2025 campaign, just 11 teams remain unbeaten. The odds of anyone replicating the Ducks’ feat, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, aren’t great.
ESPN spotlighted the rest-of-season outlook for college football’s undefeated teams on Wednesday morning. Ohio State (36.1%) and Miami (29.4%) have the best opportunities to win out, according to ESPN’s FPI. Meanwhile, neither Ole Miss (3.0%) nor Texas A&M (2.2%) has a top-5 chance at avoiding a loss before the CFP.
With Penn State’s implosion, Ohio State has no truly tough opponent on its schedule until Rivalry Week. The Buckeyes have a greater than 85% chance to beat everyone they’ll face — Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, and Rutgers — leading into “The Game” at Michigan. Even then, Ohio State has a 74.5% win probability, per FPI, against the Wolverines. If the Buckeyes are going to have a loss before the CFP, it may have to come against Indiana or Oregon in the Big Ten title game.
Miami’s schedule lays out similarly to Ohio State’s, except it offers 2 potential slip-up spots: at SMU (Nov. 1) and at Pitt (Nov. 29). FPI gives the Hurricanes a 73.9% chance to beat the Mustangs and a 78.3% chance to defeat the Panthers. Miami has at least an 84.9% win probability in its other 5 games.
Ole Miss and Texas A&M, obviously, have much tougher slates to traverse than their Big Ten and ACC brethren. The Rebels travel to Georgia (30.3% win probability) and Oklahoma (50.5%) each of the next 2 weeks. If Lane Kiffin can get through those battles unscathed, Ole Miss has a shot to make the SEC Championship without a loss.
The Aggies would have to win at LSU, Missouri, and Texas — in addition to Arkansas this weekend — to get to Atlanta unblemished.
