ESPN’s FPI predicts every game on South Carolina’s 2026 schedule
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ESPN’s FPI sees some potential tough sledding for a South Carolina program that is trying to become relevant in the SEC and College Football Playoff discussion this fall.
LaNorris Sellers’ follow-up season didn’t go quite as planned in 2025 after his breakout 2024 campaign, and the Gamecocks stumbled to a 4-8 record. No SEC title discussion, no Playoff discussion and not even a bowl game. South Carolina barely won an SEC game last fall, managing just 1 victory against 7 losses.
But last year was last year, and Shane Beamer‘s crew led once again by Seller wants to put last year in the distant past. The FPI, like a lot of other things, will provide some motivation, as despite some chatter about South Carolina having a revival season under Beamer in 2026, the game-by-game ledger sees things a little differently.
ESPN’s Football Power Index isn’t necessarily a direct indication of what will happen on the field. After the FPI gave South Carolina a huge chance to get off to a 3-0 start, putting them as a heavy favorite to take care of Kent State, Towson and then Mississippi State in its SEC opener, things on paper are expected to get a lot tougher.
That rough sledding could start in Week 4 at Alabama, because starting with that matchup in late September, South Carolina is only favored by the FPI in 2 more games, against Kentucky and Arkansas. Other than that, the FPI isn’t kind, but it’ll be up to South Carolina to prove the FPI wrong as it aims for that bounce-back season with Sellers leading the way.
Here is the game-by-game breakdown by the FPI:
- Sept 5: Kent State Golden Flashes | 98.1% chance to win
- Sept 12: Towson Tigers | 99.2% chance to win
- Sept 19: Mississippi State Bulldogs | 77.3% chance to win
- Sept 26: Alabama Crimson Tide | 21.1% chance to win
- Oct 3: Kentucky Wildcats | 74.5% chance to win
- Oct 10: Florida Gators | 37.9% chance to win
- Oct 24: Tennessee Volunteers | 49.4% chance to win
- Oct 31: Oklahoma Sooners | 24.9% chance to win
- Nov 7: Texas A&M Aggies | 30.5% chance to win
- Nov 14: Arkansas Razorbacks | 64.1% chance to win
- Nov 21: Georgia Bulldogs | 20.0% chance to win
- Nov 28: Clemson Tigers | 38.9% chance to win
South Carolina’s implied regular-season win total of 6.36 probably wouldn’t satisfy many in Columbia, not with the preseason hope swirling around the program. But the FPI is just a number, or a series of numbers, and the Gamecocks can prove it all wrong starting on Sept. 5 at home against Kent State.
With South Carolina desperate to become relevant in the SEC this season after a down year in 2025, here is what the Kalshi market is currently saying about the Gamecocks’ potential win total for the 2026 season:
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
