ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome for every game on Texas’s 2025 schedule
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The Texas Longhorns‘ first year in the SEC went about as swimmingly as one could hope. Steve Sarkisian‘s squad went 11-1 in the regular season, appeared in the conference championship game and finished 13-3. Their only losses came to Georgia (twice) and Ohio State, and 11 of their wins came by multiple possessions. They didn’t win the College Football Playoff, but they were a legitimate CFP championship contender.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Longhorns should be more than that in 2025. Texas boasts the No. 1 team in FPI and the best projected record (10.4-2.2) in the country. They’re one of two schools with a 100% chance — in simulations of the season — of winning 6 games (Penn State is the other). The Longhorns also are the only team with a greater than 80% chance to make the CFP. Georgia, in second, sits at 75.6%.
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The gulf between Texas and second place gets even wider when it comes to reaching the CFP title game. FPI gives the Longhorns a 38.7% chance of playing for their first championship in 20 years, and a 24.7% chance of winning the whole enchilada. Georgia’s numbers, in second place (23.9% and 13.6%, respectively) pale in comparison.
Unfortunately for Texas, we can’t just hand them the CFP trophy. There’s a reason we play the games. We could see someone knock the Longhorns from their perch on any given Saturday. That’s true right out of the gate, as Texas faces Ohio State in Columbus to kick off the season. And the SEC, as always, will be a gauntlet. Regardless, FPI favors the Longhorns in all 12 of their regular-season games and gives them at least a 70% chance at victory in 10 of them.
- Aug. 30 at Ohio State – 53.3%
- Sept. 6 vs. San Jose State – 98.7%
- Sept. 13 vs. UTEP – 99.0%
- Sept. 20 vs. Sam Houston State – 99.0%
- Oct. 4 at Florida – 70.3%
- Oct. 11 vs. Oklahoma – 84.5%
- Oct. 18 at Kentucky – 86.2%
- Oct. 25 at Mississippi State – 91.3%
- Nov. 1 vs. Vanderbilt – 94.4%
- Nov. 15 at Georgia – 54.3%
- Nov. 22 vs. Arkansas – 89.6%
- Nov. 29 vs. Texas A&M – 79.3%
You never truly know what will happen in college football. But barring a 2024 Florida State-esque disappearing act, Texas will be right in the thick of things come December and January. And with any luck, they’ll get to hoist the CFP championship trophy on a stage in Miami rather than on paper today.
