ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome for every remaining game on Oklahoma’s 2025 schedule
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The Oklahoma Sooners have been down and up in Brent Venables‘ tenure. The former Clemson defensive coordinator went 6-7 in his first and third seasons, but 10-3 in his second year. We’re still early in year 4, but this far, the even season history seems to be repeating itself.
Venables’ Sooners unsurprisingly dominated Illinois State 35-3 in their season opener. Their 24-13 dispatching of then-No. 15 Michigan, though — where they limited the Wolverines to just 288 yards, 75 of which came on one run — showed this team may be different. If Oklahoma can maintain that level of defensive strength alongside an explosive offense, Venables and Co. will be a real College Football Playoff contender come December.
Right now, ESPN’s Football Power Index doesn’t see the Sooners making the CFP. Their 19.9% chance ranks 24th in the country and 11th in the SEC. However, a few big wins would quickly shift those odds in their favor. And the opportunity for those, particularly in late October and early November, is plentiful.
- at Temple – 84.5%
- vs. No. 24 Auburn – 51.1%
- vs. Kent State – 99.0%
- vs. No. 7 Texas – 22.8%
- at No. 11 South Carolina – 39.7%
- vs. No. 17 Ole Miss – 36.4%
- at No. 15 Tennessee – 24.7%
- at No. 19 Alabama – 22.5%
- vs. No. 25 Missouri – 52.5%
- vs. No. 3 LSU – 54.8%
Yes, FPI only projects Oklahoma to finish 7-5. However, anything can happen in the Red River Rivalry. If the Sooners win that game and just one of the four ensuing matchups they’re currently predicted to lose, they’d be 9-3 with 5 ranked wins. In theory, that should be more than enough to earn a spot in the CFP.
For those contests to matter, Oklahoma must first take care of business against its inferior opponents. They travel to face one of them (Temple) on Saturday. Kickoff with the Owls is set for noon ET on ESPN2.
