ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome of every game on Alabama’s 2026 schedule
Published:
From 2009-2024, the Alabama Crimson Tide never slotted lower than No. 5 in college football’s preseason AP poll. Just like they have everywhere else, though, the times in Tuscaloosa have changed. Kalen DeBoer‘s team sits at No. 13 to open the 2026 campaign, its lowest preseason ranking in nearly two decades.
Following a legend is difficult. Nobody envies Deboer taking the Alabama gig right after Nick Saban, but nobody’s making apologies for him, either. The Crimson Tide have a standard, and that standard must be met.
For Deboer to remain in the saddle long-term, he needs to produce a true College Football Playoff championship contender. This year’s team could be one; ESPN’s Football Power Index sees Alabama as an underdog in just 2 games this season.
- Sept 5: East Carolina Pirates | 94.6% chance to win
- Sept 12: Kentucky Wildcats | 82.5% chance to win
- Sept 19: Florida State Seminoles | 81.7% chance to win
- Sept 26: South Carolina Gamecocks | 78.8% chance to win
- Oct 3: Mississippi State Bulldogs | 85.2% chance to win
- Oct 10: Georgia Bulldogs | 41.9% chance to win
- Oct 17: Tennessee Volunteers | 59.1% chance to win
- Oct 24: Texas A&M Aggies | 58.2% chance to win
- Nov 7: LSU Tigers | 43.8% chance to win
- Nov 14: Vanderbilt Commodores | 75.6% chance to win
- Nov 21: Chattanooga Mocs | 99.6% chance to win
- Nov 28: Auburn Tigers | 77.6% chance to win
A 10-2 record in the first year of 9 conference contests would be a strong showing, and out-perform the Tide’s expected win total of 8.79, per FPI.
Alabama opens the season versus East Carolina on Sept. 5 (12:00 p.m. E.T., ABC).
