ESPN’s FPI is putting its trust in star running back Ahmad Hardy and Mizzou as the Tigers get ready to face Virginia in the Gator Bowl on Saturday night in Jacksonville.
The bowl bash between SEC and ACC programs will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, and at about that time Virginia will start facing the reality of trying to slow down Hardy in primetime. Hardy had a monster season in 2025 in his first year in Columbia after transferring from Louisiana-Monroe, and he’ll be the Cavaliers’ problem on Saturday night.
Hardy piled up a whopping 1,560 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns this fall, averaging 6.5 yards per carry and basically punishing every SEC defense along the way. He’ll be in the spotlight in the season-ending bowl game to try to get the 8-4 Tigers to 9 wins this season, a little over a week after it was revealed that Hardy was returning to Mizzou for the 2026 season.
For now, Hardy wants to make sure that Mizzou ends its 2025 season the right way, and ESPN’s FPI believes it has a great chance to do just that. The FPI is giving Eli Drinkwitz‘s team a 65.6% chance to beat the 10-3 Cavaliers, who are coming off a crushing overtime loss to Duke in the ACC title game.
Virginia was so close to being in the College Football Playoff, and now the Cavaliers will face the cold reality of having to tackle Hardy all night in Jacksonville, with those Playoff dreams dashed.
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
