ESPN’s FPI predicts the outcome for every game of Ole Miss’s 2026 season
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ESPN’s FPI is aware that Trinidad Chambliss is back and could be better than ever during the 2026 season, but that hardly means Ole Miss is destined to roll through the SEC this fall as it chases another spot in the College Football Playoff.
Chambliss is ready to resume punishing defenses from the quarterback position under first-year head coach Pete Golding. Ole Miss, which is ranked 9th in the Preseason AP Poll, will open the season in the spotlight with a primetime Sunday night showdown against No. 24 Louisville in the Music City Kickoff in Nashville. That Sept. 6 clash (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) will launch a season firmly in the spotlight because Lane Kiffin might be gone from Oxford but there are still national championship hopes bubbling there this fall.
ESPN’s Football Power Index favors the Rebels in every game this season except 4 — a home battle with LSU in Kiffin’s much-anticipated return, a road battle against Texas, and November showdowns at home against Georgia and on the road against Oklahoma. It’ll be a challenging journey to try to get back to the Playoff, and here is the game-by-game listing of how the FPI believes things might go in 2026 for the Rebels:
- Sept 6: Louisville Cardinals | 69.1% chance to win
- Sept 12: Charlotte 49ers | 98.3% chance to win
- Sept 19: LSU Tigers | 44.1% chance to win
- Sept 26: Florida Gators | 50.2% chance to win
- Oct 10: Vanderbilt Commodores | 68.2% chance to win
- Oct 17: Missouri Tigers | 67.8% chance to win
- Oct 24: Texas Longhorns | 16.2% chance to win
- Oct 31: Auburn Tigers | 68.0% chance to win
- Nov 7: Georgia Bulldogs | 31.0% chance to win
- Nov 14: Oklahoma Sooners | 37.7% chance to win
- Nov 21: Wofford Terriers | 99.5% chance to win
- Nov 27: Mississippi State Bulldogs | 84.7% chance to win
The FPI gives Ole Miss an implied regular-season win total of 7.35, which points to the Rebels’ difficult schedule in being an underdog (for now) in 4 of their 9 SEC games. That implied win total won’t be nearly enough to get Ole Miss back to the Playoff, so it’s going to have to buck those FPI percentages and win a few of those games that the FPI isn’t favoring the Rebels to win. It all begins for Ole Miss on that Labor Day Weekend Sunday night in the Music City.
With Chambliss back in the fold, Ole Miss has a chance to do more special things this season, carrying over the magic from the 2025 campaign. Here is what the Kalshi market is currently saying about the Rebels’ potential regular-season win total for the 2026 season:
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
