ESPN’s SP+ has crunched the numbers on those cowbells that will be rampant in Starkville on Saturday afternoon, and it’s revealed what it believes the final score will be when No. 7 Alabama visits No. 16 Mississippi State in one of the most anticipated games of the 2026 college football season.
There is the backdrop of those cowbells, a glorious tradition of Bulldogs football, and one of the biggest games in recent memory at Davis Wade Stadium. The matchup between 4-0 teams will kick off at noon ET on ABC, with national attention focused on Mississippi State and its budding star quarterback, Kamario Taylor.
Both teams are also 2-0 in the SEC coming in, with Alabama currently about a touchdown favorite in the mega matchup.
Someone is going to walk off the field on Saturday with its first overall loss and first SEC loss, so who does ESPN’s SP+ believe it will be?
They see it as a close game, with the Bulldogs hanging tough but with the Crimson Tide getting the last laugh in a 32-27 victory. The projected margin given by SP+ is 5.4 points, so this margin of victory for the Crimson Tide is right in that margin range.
The SP+ is also giving Alabama a 63% chance to escape Starkville with its perfect record intact.
Here is the full listing of SP+ projected final scores for a loaded Week 5 of action:
While ESPN’s SP+ has its own thoughts on the Alabama-Mississippi State game, here is what the Kalshi market is currently saying about the Week 5 showdown between SEC ranked teams in Starkville:
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
