ESPN’s SP+ projects the final score of LSU-Ole Miss top-10 showdown
By Andrew Olson
Published:
One of the most anticipated games of the 2026 college football season will be played in Week 3. On Saturday, Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford as the head coach of the No. 7 LSU Tigers as they take on the No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels.
Ahead of the top-10 matchup between Kiffin’s current team and his former team, Bill Connelly shared ESPN’s SP+ projection for the final score in Oxford. SP+ has this year’s Magnolia Bowl going to the Tigers by a score of 29-22.
Connelly’s SP+ predates his joining ESPN and was previously featured at Football Outsiders. He defines SP+ as a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency. SP+ is closely followed by college football bettors for its score projections and how they relate to the point spread and over/under for total points in the game.
In this case, SP+ suggests taking LSU and the under. On Kalshi, LSU is favored to win by 2.5 points, per the market. The total for the game has been set at 58.5 total points for the over/under.
LSU and Ole Miss both enter Week 3 with 2-0 records. Both teams picked up wins over ACC squads in Week 1 and played tune-up contests in Week 2.
The Bayou Bengals defeated Clemson 51-10 in a blowout to kick off the Kiffin era. LSU improved to 2-0 with a 45-14 win over Louisiana Tech in Week 2.
Ole Miss beat a ranked Louisville 41-38 squad to open the 2026 campaign. Pete Golding‘s Rebels defeated Charlotte 41-9 in Week 2 to improve to 2-0.
Saturday’s showdown is set for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff, airing on ABC.
Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaign of Fred Taylor.
