Bill Connelly unveiled the first edition of his weekly SP+ picks on Sunday, and included in the projections is his metric’s take on how the non-conference showdown between Auburn and Baylor will shake out on Friday night.
Connelly’s SP+ takes a variety of statistics into account to formulate an overall ranking for ESPN, and it is also able to predict the final scores of games.
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When it comes to the Tigers and Bears, SP+ sees Auburn coming out on top, but only by the narrowest of margins. The metric favors the Tigers by a single point and gives them a win probability of 53%.
The projected final score of 28-27 would hit below the game’s spread of -2.5 in favor of the visitors. Connelley’s SP+ also has the under hitting in this scenario, as the 28-27 scoreline would fall below the 57.5 line for the game.
The slim margins should come as no surprise for a matchup that figures to feature a pair of dark horse teams in their respective leagues.
Despite a rocky 2024 campaign, spirits are cautiously high on the Plains as Jaxson Arnold transfers in at quarterback and a host of talented skill position players join him. With the Tiger defense projecting to be stingy again, Hugh Freeze is hopeful that 2025 can be the breakthrough season he’s been seeking since his return to the league.
Meanwhile, Baylor limped out to a 1-4 start last year but rallied down the stretch to finish with an 8-5 record. Star quarterback Sawyer Robertson returns along with a plethora of familiar faces, and Dave Aranda believes his team has what it takes to return to the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2021.
The two sides kick off at 8 p.m. ET in Waco, Texas, and the game will be broadcast by FOX.
Current sports editor with the Enterprise-Journal in McComb, Ms. Mizzou grad '24 and college athletics enthusiast.
