Extra points: CFB Insider Matt Hayes’ weekly guide to college football
By Matt Hayes
Published:
Three separate industry sources told me Wednesday they expect the College Football Playoff to expand “sooner rather than later” — with the preferred plan consisting of 6 teams, not 8.
The CFP management committee – consisting of the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick — annually reviews the Playoff on a number of levels, including the format.
This year’s review brought the format into focus when Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott tried to get the management committee to expand this year’s Playoff to 8 teams because of the uncertainty from a season interrupted by the COVID pandemic.
But, as one P5 athletic director told me, “as soon as you expand the field, you’ve changed the dynamics of future seasons. Once the door is open, how do you close it?”
While Scott’s pitch wasn’t successful, it did, according to industry sources, turn a “portion” of the meeting toward format, present and future.
The impact of COVID has forced the management council to consider new revenue streams. Even with a truncated season in 2020, a majority of Power 5 teams will still take loans to help keep athletic departments afloat. The easiest access to revenue: expanding the Playoff.
Since the Playoff replaced the BCS series after the 2013 season, the logical next step in growth appeared to be 8 teams. But the management committee seems to be moving toward smaller steps, or 6 teams. Why?
— Keep the integrity of the regular season. The “every game matters” mantra has been the fabric of college football since long before the commissioners took control of the postseason in 1995 with the Bowl Alliance. The management committee is concerned about losing impactful November games, and fans waiting on a Playoff field that could already be determined.
— Rewarding 2 teams for special seasons. By moving to 6 teams, the format allows 2 teams to earn a first-round bye. So even if the field increases, there will still be a November race toward 2 coveted byes, further increasing the value of the regular season.
As far as Scott’s proposal to change this season’s format, one industry told me “there wasn’t much support,” and the idea of staying true to the CFP selection committee format of picking the 4-team Playoff (the 4 best teams) won’t change.
Scott’s concern is the Pac-12, because of its late start and potential postponements or even cancelations, might not give a Pac-12 team enough data points to sway the committee.
Even if the Pac-12 can pull off a complete 7-game season, they could have considerably less games played than the SEC (10 games), ACC (11 games) and Big 12 (10 games), and the Big Ten (9 games) – if those conferences also pull off complete seasons.
“I don’t think any of us know what will happen,” one industry source said. “You’re not going to reinvent the wheel on the fly.” …
Big (12) problems?
We’re barely a month into the Big 12 season, and already it appears the conference could have problems qualifying a team for the CFP.
Big 12 coaches are stressing the season is long and there are numerous unknowns, and there’s precedent: Oklahoma, upset at home last weekend by Kansas State, has earned all 4 of its Playoff spots with 1 regular-season loss – including after last season’s loss to Kansas State.
Oklahoma State, Texas and Baylor are the lone remaining unbeaten teams in the Big 12, and Texas — the most talented of that group – gave up 56 points last weekend in a win over Texas Tech.
Texas (vs. TCU), Baylor (at WVU) and Oklahoma State (at Kansas) shouldn’t be pressed this week. But when everyone in the pass-happy conference can score points quickly, no game is safe.
“Believe me, I’d love to be the guy who says you can’t give up that amount of points and be a Playoff team,” a Big Ten coach told me. “But until you’re on the wrong end of one of those (Big 12) offenses, you have no idea what you’re dealing with. Georgia had a terrific defense a couple of years ago, and Oklahoma did whatever it wanted for 4 quarters (in the CFP). And Georgia was a play away from winning the whole thing.” …
King of the Canes
Two ACC coaches told me earlier this week that D’Eriq King has completely changed the Miami Hurricanes – to the point that Clemson now has more competition in the ACC race.
Notre Dame, with 3rd-year starting QB Ian Book and strong lines of scrimmage, is the obvious first choice to potentially dethrone the 5-time defending ACC champion Tigers.
But King’s dynamic, dual-threat ability at the most important position on the field has dramatically changed the Canes. Miami hasn’t averaged more than 30 points in a season since 2016. Through 3 games, these Canes are averaging 43.3.
“That team is playing with a lot of confidence,” an ACC coach told me. “We all knew that once (Miami) got a quarterback, it was going to be difficult to deal with them again.”
The Canes’ young offensive line that struggled last season (Miami QBs were sacked 46 times) has drastically improved in pass protection, and King’s play has raised the level of play around him on the offense.
Miami has a bye this weekend before traveling to Clemson on Oct. 10. King has 7 total TDs (6 pass) and hasn’t thrown an interception, and has completed 67% of his passes.
RB Cam’Ron Harris and TE Brevin Jordan have quickly become two of the ACC’s most dangerous players.
“What makes Miami dangerous is (King) can throw accurately off schedule. He doesn’t have to be set and framed,” another ACC coach told me. “So no matter what Clemson can do with its (defensive) front and blitz packages, Miami has an answer with a guy who thrives in those pressure spots.” …
Mike Leach, ladies and gentlemen …
Since 2001, when Mike Leach accepted his first head-coaching job at Texas Tech, the SEC has had more than 50 coaching changes.
Not one school seriously considered hiring Leach until Mississippi State this offseason. Then Leach’s offense went out and set an SEC record for passing yards in a game. In his first game at Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs play host to Arkansas on Saturday, an Arkansas defense that gave up 211 yards and 2 TD in less than 3 quarters to former walkon QB Stetson Bennett. Leach’s offense might break the records it set last weekend.
“I don’t know, dumb decisions?” Hall Mumme said when asked why Leach hadn’t been hired by college football’s elite conference sooner. “I mean, I don’t know how you see it any other way. The thing people don’t get is Mike is the best teacher of the game I’ve ever been around. He’s the best offensive line coach I’ve ever been around. He could say I’m done with being a head coach, and go coach the offensive line in the NFL, and they’d be raving about his coaching ability.”
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
