The Fearless Prediction spent the bye week in deep meditation, trying to find the answers to life’s biggest questions.
What is our purpose on this planet? How can we better serve our fellow man? And most importantly… how, coming out of a timeout, do you miss a handoff on the biggest play of the season?
Tennessee’s Playoff hopes are simple. Win out and the Vols make the field of 12. Lose just one of their final 4 games and they would probably be out of the Playoff picture and start waiting for their bowl game. And yes, the Fearless Prediction is fairly confident that non-Playoff bowl games still exist.
For now.
This weekend, Tennessee will host Kentucky. This is an era of massive change in college football, but one thing has held steady over the decades and that’s the Vols’ domination of this rivalry. UT and UK have played annually over the last 41 years. Tennessee has won 38 of those games, with Kentucky only winning 3 times. In recent years, Josh Heupel is 5-0 against UK.
But Kentucky’s new coach, Will Stein, has turned that program around with lightning speed. The Wildcats are 7-1 and tied at the top of the SEC. Kentucky hasn’t won an outright conference title since 1950 and has never even played in the SEC Championship Game, which started in 1992. If UK wins out, it’ll play in that game in its final year of existence. Starting in 2027, there will be no more SEC Championship Game, as the soon-to-be-expanded Playoff takes another victim.
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Tennessee is 6-2, with its losses each coming by a field goal. If the Vols could play a cleaner game, they might be undefeated. Tennessee is averaging 7.6 penalties per game, putting it near the bottom of the FBS. In its last game, Tennessee helped South Carolina considerably as the Vols were flagged 12 times, with 3 of those penalties wiping out TDs. Playing at home will help, but mistakes like those have been way too common in the Josh Heupel era.
The Vols’ passing game is a struggle bus. Whether its Faizon Brandon or George MacIntyre taking snaps, the Vols are only throwing for 181.5 yards per game. But on the ground, the Vols are gaining 213 rushing yards per game. If it feels like this offense is one-dimensional, you aren’t far off. Tennessee is 116th in passing in the FBS, while ranked 16th in rushing. RB DeSean Bishop is the best player on this UT offense, gaining 119.6 yards per game. That places him among the best in the country. Offensively, Tennessee is a middle-of-the-road team, currently gaining 394.5 yards per game, good enough to be ranked 61st in the FBS in total offense.
Much like in 2024, it’s the defense keeping Tennessee in Playoff contention. The Vols have a solid group, with future NFL Draft picks like DT Xavier Gilliam leading the way. They only give up 288.4 yards of offense per game, ranking them 15th in the FBS. The Vols also lead the nation in sacks with 35.
As for Kentucky, the stats are not mind blowing. The Cats’ offense is gaining 386.4 yards per game (68th nationally) with their defense allowing 362.6 yards per game (72nd nationally). A skeptic would say that UK’s 2 go-for-broke OT victories over South Carolina and LSU prove that the line between 7-1 and 5-3 is paper-thin. But it doesn’t matter if you win by an inch or a mile. Winning’s winning (shoutout Dominic Toretto).
QB Kenny Minchey was buried on Notre Dame’s depth chart. Since transferring to Lexington, he’s become one of the SEC’s breakout stars. Minchey averages 219.4 yards passing per game, and has completed 69% of his passes, with 14 TDs and most importantly, only 1 INT. He has 2 solid receivers to throw to in Willie Rodriguez and Kenny Darby. They’ve combined for 77 receptions, 831 yards and 6 TDs this season. CJ Baxter is rushing for nearly 70 yards per game.
Defensively, LB Grant Godfrey leads the Wildcats with 72 tackles. DE Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace has 7.5 tackles for loss and 5 sacks this season.
It’ll be an SEC night game at Neyland Stadium, which is unfortunately an increasingly rare occurrence. Tennessee’s “Dark Mode” experience with black jerseys and pregame in-stadium light show is a fan favorite, and those fans have had 3 weeks to rest their vocal cords since the ear-splitting Alabama game. It should be a rowdy crowd.
The Fearless Prediction has the Commodore 64 computer working around the clock to come up with these prognostications, and we absolutely take that information into account. But sometimes you just have to look to the history book. Tennessee almost always beats Kentucky. And in a time of absolute change in the sport, some things have to stay the same.
Right?
Fearless Prediction: Tennessee 21, Kentucky 14
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Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
