First and 10: Brian Kelly isn’t leaving LSU, a’ight? But 2024 is shaping up as a critical year in the rebuild

1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

This isn’t the way Year 3 was supposed to begin, these buildouts formatted and fairly predictable.

They surely don’t start by losing both coordinators and gutting the defensive staff days after another 10-win season.

“All of this build toward confidence and evaluating what you need to do in the offseason,” LSU coach Brian Kelly said after a comeback ReliaQuest Bowl victory over Wisconsin. “To be the kind of defense and offense to win a championship.”

That’s the key here, and moving forward. Kelly wasn’t hired to win 10 games.

He was hired to win a national title. He was hired to do what Nick Saban and Les Miles and Ed Orgeron did before him over the past 2 decades.

So when another 10-win season came and went last week, when offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock accepted the same poison at Notre Dame, and when Kelly fired defensive coordinator Matt House (and 3 defensive assistants), the buildout hit a hiccup.

Now there are new systems to learn on both sides of the ball. New terminologies, new play-callers, new chemistry.

Whoever plays quarterback (more on that later) will do so without star receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas (NFL Draft), and without starting tailback Logan Diggs (transfer portal).

And that’s just the offense.

Kelly made the first big move of the offseason late last week when he hired Blake Baker — one of the nation’s top young DCs — away from Missouri. There’s nothing quite like improving your team and hurting an SEC rival in the process.

But understand this: Baker had a better defense with better personnel — by a long way — at Missouri. He walks into the LSU job with the heaviest defensive lift since before Saban arrived at LSU in 2000.

When LSU gave up nearly 400 yards passing to a Wisconsin offense that couldn’t throw the ball with efficiency all season, it capped a horrifically bad run for a unit that had become the backbone of the program since 2000. The defense, at all 3 levels, has produced some of the best players in the game over the past 2 decades.

Then came the 2023 season, when LSU finished 13th in the SEC in total defense (108th nationally) and 13th in scoring defense (81st nationally). The Tigers haven’t given up an average of 33 points in SEC games (in non-COVID seasons) in decades.

Baker (and Kelly) must hire 3 position coaches (defensive line, 2 secondary), and LSU needs impact players from the portal — the same situation it was in last season.

The rebuilt 2023 defense, which had double-digit transfers starting games, was the critical problem in all 3 losses (Florida State, Ole Miss, Alabama) — where the Tigers gave up 142 points (47.3 ppg.).

LSU has 5 commitments from the portal, none of whom were impact defensive players in 2023.

“For us, it’s been recruiting development and retention,” Kelly said. “And you do that, but you can’t do it really effectively when you’re, say, 3-9 or 4-9. But when you have back-to-back 10-win seasons and you’re doing it with bowl victories as well, that build on it going into the offseason certainly helps a lot.”

2. The focal point

The worst part about another 10-win season — is there anything bad about a 10-win season? — is the way it unfolded.

LSU wasted a rare season from quarterback Jayden Daniels, whose Heisman Trophy-winning season was just as impressive as Joe Burrow’s in 2019. The difference: Burrow won a national title, with a defense that did enough when it had to — and most certainly wasn’t elite.

But the step down from Daniels to Garrett Nussmeier or AJ Swann will put more pressure on a rebuilt defense with a new coordinator. Kelly looked outside the box for the DC hire — most coaches hire those they know for coordinator positions — and maybe he does the same with the OC job.

There are numerous options for the job, including current head coaches (Jason Candle of Toledo, Joe Moorhead of Akron), and OC’s (Charlie Weis Jr. of Ole Miss, Kendal Briles of TCU, Willy Korn of Liberty).

Maybe Kelly gives the OC job to Joe Sloan, LSU’s quarterbacks coach who helped develop Daniels over the past 2 seasons from a quarterback who showed flashes but wouldn’t make difficult throws, to one who completed more than 70% of his passes and made every throw.

Nussmeier played well against Wisconsin, and Sloan and passing game coordinator/wide receivers coach Cortez Hankton were co-coordinators in place of Denbrock. Hankton’s work with the receivers has been impressive, and it wouldn’t be a shock for Kelly to continue with co-coordinators in 2024.

Whoever gets the job, there most certainly is a quarterback competition. Not because Nussmeier hasn’t earned the job or isn’t ready (he is), but because of Kelly’s history with the position. He’s always looking to upgrade, to push a starter to play his best.

He added another strong-armed, talented backup when Swann — the former Vanderbilt starter — committed to LSU. He will push Nussmeier in the spring, and more than likely in fall camp.

Kelly once won the Big East at Cincinnati playing 3 quarterbacks. He won big at Notre Dame playing 2 quarterbacks.

Don’t think it can’t or won’t happen again.

3. Completing the buildout, The Epilogue

Before we go further, let’s eliminate this nonsense: Kelly isn’t leaving for Michigan.

While I believe Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is headed to the NFL and the job will be open soon after Monday night’s Playoff National Championship Game, Michigan OC Sherrone Moore is the favorite to get the job and almost certainly will.

The only thing that could keep Michigan from elevating Moore is his role in 1 of 2 current NCAA investigations into the program. Moore was suspended for 1 game this season for his role in allegations of improper contact with recruits during the COVID season.

Kelly isn’t leaving a job at LSU — where he has everything he could want financially, and with state of the art facilities and a favorable geographic footprint — after setting up LSU over the past 2 seasons.

He believes he’s close in Baton Rouge, that his philosophy has taken hold and the Tigers have shown in each season that they can compete at the highest level of the sport.

“Now my focus will be on 2024, and 2024 will be (completing) the staff and putting our staff in the position to take this team to a championship level,” Kelly said.

4. Change is coming

Florida coach Billy Napier tried to hire Ole Miss OC Charlie Weis Jr., but Weis eventually decided to stay in Oxford, multiple sources told Saturday Down South.

This is a clear sign that Napier — if he finds the right fit — is trying to hire an OC/play-caller and move more toward CEO coach.

Napier is Florida’s quarterbacks coach, offensive coordinator and play-caller (forget about titles to other staff members), and the offense struggled for much of his 2 seasons. The Gators began to play better offensively the 2nd half of this season before an injury to QB Graham Mertz.

The move to hire an OC/QBs coach and play-caller is as much about finding a consistent offense as it is Napier taking more control of the rest of the team. The Gators have struggled mightily with pre-snap penalties and mistakes on offense, and missed tackles and blown assignments on defense.

The entire operation on both sides of the ball has been off for much of his 2 seasons. Hiring an OC/QBs coach would allow Napier to be more hands-on with the rest of the team.

Other candidates include Liberty’s Korn, former USF coach and Clemson OC Jeff Scott, and Memphis OC Tim Cramsey.

5. The Weekly 5

The top 5 season-openers for the 2024 season.

• 1. Notre Dame at Texas A&M
• 2. LSU vs. USC (Las Vegas)
• 3. Georgia vs. Clemson (Atlanta)
• 4. Miami at Florida
• 5. Colorado State at Texas

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible SEC player. This week: Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright.

“A productive back who has shown durability the last 2 seasons. He has straight-line speed, and he has some breakaway ability if he gets to the 2nd level. He’s not going to consistently run between the tackles in our league, getting 20-25 carries a game. That’s not who he is. But he has that ability to find a crease and explode through it. He has proven he can absorb big hits, and go to the next play. If you’re averaging 6-7 yards a carry in (the SEC), I don’t care what system you’re playing in, that’s productive.”

7. Powered UP

This week’s 2024 Power Poll, and 1 big thing.

1. Georgia: Despite nearly 20 players leaving for the portal — and with a handful of impact players coming in from the portal — this is still the team to beat in 2024.

2. Alabama: Coaching or personnel, something has to change on the offensive line. The Tide have given up 112 sacks and 255 tackles for loss over the past 3 seasons — despite playing with mobile (and elite) quarterbacks.

3. Texas: Horns have to get better on the lines of scrimmage to not only compete on a weekly basis in the SEC but make a deep run in the 2024 Playoff.

4. Ole Miss: It doesn’t matter the how or why, Rebels have lost elite production from the tailback spot with Quinshon Judkins entering the portal.

5. Missouri: Want to know the impact of Georgia State transfer RB Marcus Carroll? He had 15 carries for 87 yards and 1 TD against LSU in 2023, and 5 carries for 57 yards against South Carolina in 2022 — in his only games against Power 5 teams.

6. LSU: We’ll get a good idea of the LSU rebuild in Week 1 against USC, the first SEC vs. Big Ten matchup of the newly reformed super conferences.

7. Tennessee: This offseason feels a lot like 2023: A backup quarterback (Joe Milton III) plays well late, leading into increased expectations. Can Nico Iamaleava be more in 2024 than Milton was in 2023?

8. Texas A&M: The hiring of Mike Elko — and the end of Jimbo Fisher’s coaching uncertainty — has overshadowed significant losses by the Aggies to the transfer portal.

9. Oklahoma: Don’t put too much into QB Jackson Arnold’s performance in the bowl loss to Arizona. It was his first start, against a hot team, and OU gave up on the run (Arnold threw 45 passes).

10. Kentucky: All the offseason talk has been about offensive additions. As important: the prevention of offensive losses. WRs Dane Key and Barion Brown are returning to Lexington, as is LT Marques Cox — and all 3 could’ve moved on to championship-ready programs.

11. Auburn: Hugh Freeze says QB Hank Brown needs an opportunity and maybe it happens in 2024. Or maybe Auburn is waiting to see what happens with quarterbacks in the spring portal. Or both.

12. Florida: Maybe we’re underestimating Napier and his staff’s ability to develop players. It’s his roster now, how does it play out moving forward?

13. South Carolina: Unless there’s movement in the spring portal, the Gamecocks enter 2024 with veteran Luke Doty, rising sophomore LaNorris Sellers and incoming freshman Dante Reno battling for the starting quarterback job.

14. Arkansas: One of the most overlooked transfer portal signings this offseason: the Hogs landing Utah RB Ja’Quinden Jackson, a rising 4th-year junior who had 797 yards and 9 TDs in 2023 while sharing the position. He’s big (6-2, 228), and has been clocked at 4.4 in the 40.

15. Mississippi State: Bulldogs have been hurt by lost starters in the portal, but new coach Jeff Lebby added one of the top 3 receivers in the portal: UTEP’s Kelly Akharaiyi, who 1,033 yards receiving 2023 and averaged 21.5 ypc.

16. Vanderbilt: Of all the departures (and starters lost) to the portal, none are more disappointing than DE Nate Clifton (USC) and and LB Ethan Barr (Washington), teams captains in 2023.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: What’s your gut on Quinn Ewers? Does he stay at Texas or go to the NFL, and if he returns, does he win the job? — Walter Vison, Dallas.

Walter:

Before we get into the idea of redshirt freshman Arch Manning beating out Ewers for the starting job, let’s begin with the assumption that Ewers is returning. Frankly, I don’t see why he wouldn’t. He needs to sharpen his decision-making and mechanics, and this is a loaded year for quarterbacks in the NFL Draft.

Now think about JJ McCarthy. Michigan’s quarterback played poorly last year in a Playoff semifinal loss to TCU, and his growth in a 2nd full season as a starter has been remarkable. He’s not a numbers guy because Michigan’s offense isn’t quarterback-based, but he was a completely different player from last year’s Playoff to this year’s.

Ewers still hasn’t played a full season at Texas because of injury, and a 3rd season in Auston could translate to something rare under coach and play caller Steve Sarkisian. Another season in the offense, a productive season without injury in the SEC, and Ewers could be the first quarterback selected in the 2025 draft.

Best guess is former No. 1 overall recruit Arch Manning will take a big step in Year 2 under Sarkisian. Most quarterbacks make their biggest moves in Year 2 because the game slows down and knowledge of the offense expands. He will be a much better quarterback in 2024.

Will he be good enough to beat out Ewers? Doubtful, if Ewers continues to progress. I don’t think that’s a concern for Ewers when exploring the idea of leaving for the NFL.

More than anything, it’s his health. He has had 2 shoulder injuries (1 on each shoulder) in 2 years at Texas. Does he return and gamble that he’ll stay healthy behind an offensive line that clearly was a problem in 2023 — or does he leave for the NFL and hope his Combine and Pro Day workouts and interviews move him into the 1st round?

Underclassmen have until Jan. 15 to declare for the 2024 NFL Draft.

9. Numbers

21. South Carolina was tied for last in the SEC in sacks, and the 21 sacks were actually 1 better than the 2022 season total of 20.

It should come as no surprise that the Gamecocks added edge help in the portal with Georgia Tech’s Kyle Kennard, a late bloomer who had 6 sacks as a senior in 2023 and opted for 1 more college season instead of leaving for the NFL.

He has 12.5 career sacks, and the plan is to play him as the weak side edge. The staff still believes rising sophomore Desmond Umeozulu — a top 125 recruit from the 2023 class — can be an impact edge rusher. There’s also hope that Pittsburgh transfer DT DeAndre Jules can provide interior disruption in the pass game.

South Carolina has 67 sacks in coach Shane Beamer’s 3 seasons, a measly 22.3 sacks per season. The Gamecocks more than likely aren’t done addressing the pass rush from the portal.

10. Quote to note

Alabama coach Nick Saban: “This team probably improved from the South Florida game and the Texas game as much as any team I’ve ever coached. That takes a lot of hard work. A lot of people being very committed to doing things that they need to do to self-assess and improve their game.”

Matt Hayes

Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB