First and 10: TCU is formidable, but Georgia’s biggest hurdle is the unrelenting pressure to repeat
By Matt Hayes
Published:
1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
They’re defending a national championship and protecting an unbeaten season.
And they’re running on fumes.
“Our players have had a long season,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said.
With 1 defining game to go.
There are 2 ways to look at Georgia avoiding the cliff in the Peach Bowl against Ohio State: The Buckeyes finally played to their elite potential, or a physically and mentally tired and overwhelmed champion is struggling to the finish line.
Either way, Georgia’s flaws have finally been exposed — at the worst possible moment.
Forget about Smart’s preseason mantra that Georgia won’t be hunted. It’s laughable at this point.
Georgia gets every team’s best shot every week. Next up: motivated and overlooked (sound familiar?) and 13.5-point underdog TCU in the Playoff National Championship Game.
For the final time this season, Georgia will be measured against the only way this ride is allowed to end: a national title.
Those expectations have inked an indelible mental toll on the 11-month journey to repeat as champions, and Georgia is breaking down in front of our eyes.
Not because it isn’t the best team in the nation, or isn’t prepared or is getting outcoached. They’re running on fumes because they’ve been dragging the grind of defending the national title, of reaching the top of a rare mountain you’ve already scaled, for an entire year.
We’ve seen it over and over in the BCS/CFP era: Uber-talented championship teams trying to repeat are doomed at the worst possible moment by the physical and mental toll of repeating. Of being the hunted.
— 2002: Miami’s overtime loss to Ohio State in the national title game.
— 2005: USC’s last-second loss to Texas in the national title game.
— 2009: Florida’s blowout loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game.
— 2014: FSU’s blowout loss to Oregon in the Playoff semifinal.
— 2019: Clemson’s blowout loss to LSU in the national title game.
All teams with deep and talented rosters full of future NFL players. All taken down, in part, because of the grind of the season.
And the expectations of perfection.
2. TCU’s moment
What Georgia flaws, you say? Look harder.
Before leaving under concussion protocol, Ohio State All-American wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. was a serious problem for the Georgia secondary.
Imagine what TCU star wideout Quentin Johnston, who had 6 catches for 163 yards against Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal, will do to the suddenly leaky Georgia secondary.
Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud got hidden, gutting rush yards on scramble plays to slow down the Georgia pass rush.
Imagine what TCU’s Max Duggan — a stronger, faster and tougher runner — will do to a Georgia front 7 that hasn’t been nearly as disruptive as last season.
Ohio State used exotic blitz combinations to confuse Georgia’s pass protection, which included first-time starting right tackle Amarius Mims. Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett, who hadn’t been sacked in 7 games (and only 7 times all season), was sacked twice and the passing game was consistently affected.
Imagine what TCU’s unique 3-3-5 defense — which gave Michigan’s Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line fits all game — will do to a Georgia offensive line that hasn’t faced an elite pass rush all season. The Frogs had 4 sacks, 13 tackles for loss and constantly harassed athletic Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy.
Bennett admitted after the Peach Bowl that he played “about 30 minutes of bad football.” It might have been closer to 45 — and what happens against another unique scheme with an athletic front 7?
Bennett looked lost at times trying to decipher Ohio State’s multiple and combination coverages — and deal with the pressure.
Now imagine Bennett throwing against the best cornerback combination in the nation with Thorpe Award winner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton, and underrated nickel corner Millard Bradford. And doing so while avoiding exotic blitz packages from TCU’s front 7.
Translation: If you think the Georgia offense was discombobulated for 3 quarters against Ohio State, expect more of the same against TCU.
“They use angles and leverage with that unique front to shoot (gaps) and disrupt,” an NFL scout told me. “That’s not the biggest group, but they’re athletic as hell. If you can’t get your hands on them, you’ll be reacting all game.”
An ominous statement for the final leg of the Georgia journey.
3. The grind, The Epilogue
The worst thing that could’ve happened for Georgia was beginning the season with a 49-3 whitewash of top-10 Oregon.
That raised expectations to an unthinkable level — and everything else was downhill except the Tennessee game. Why wouldn’t they think (consciously or not) the Playoff would be, too?
Ohio State was blown out in its only true test of the season against Michigan, and Georgia knew what it could do with Michigan from last year’s Playoff. TCU? Come on, the Big 12?
But there Georgia was, in the halftime locker room, trying to find a way to keep it together. At one point, center Sedrick Van Pran — the most respected player on the roster — was yelling at his teammates to “wake up.”
Fortunately, Bennett did at the right moment.
In the 4th quarter of 3 Playoff games over the past 2 seasons, Bennett has 312 yards and 5 TDs.
Georgia got away from the run too often in the Peach Bowl (3 running backs averaged 9.6 yards per carry). Its best offensive threat (TE Brock Bowers) was virtually ignored for 3 quarters.
Nothing looked right — until Bennett did.
Earlier in the week, Smart said Bennett had overcome a lot, emphasizing that “He’s overcome us when we didn’t want him out there.”
Smart could’ve made a move in the Peach Bowl, too. Could’ve inserted talented backup Carson Beck when Bennett looked confused by (take your pick), the rush, the coverage, his poor throws.
Bennett’s first 2 passes of the 4th quarter were incomplete and led to a punt. His next was incomplete, too — and led to another punt. In his last 3 drives of the 4th quarter, Bennett completed 10-of-11 for 190 yards and 2 TDs.
Don’t confuse the issue: The guy who Georgia did everything to keep off the field will be the difference against TCU, too.
4. Moving on
Numerous NFL scouts I’ve spoken to believe Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien will leave for the NFL to take the same position with the Patriots.
That move would leave Alabama coach Nick Saban with a defining decision: finding an offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach and play-caller for an inexperienced quarterbacks room.
Don’t be surprised if former Florida coach Dan Mullen is high on Saban’s list of potential replacements. Mullen has a history of developing quarterbacks (Alex Smith, Chris Leak, Tim Tebow, Dan Prescott, Kyle Trask), and is considered one of the game’s best play-callers.
Unless Saban decides to add a quarterback from the transfer portal, the Tide will enter spring practice with redshirt freshman Jalen Milroe (who started and beat Texas A&M this season), freshman Ty Simpson and incoming freshmen from the 2023 recruiting class. That quarterback room screams the need for an experienced, hands-on teacher.
The prevailing theme now in the coaching community is the longer you’re out, the tougher it is to get back in as a head coach. Presidents and athletic directors want new and/or fresh, and rising stars.
Luke Fickell, Deion Sanders, Kenny Dillingham, Ryan Walters, Alex Golesh. There are exemptions for unique situations (see: Nebraska, Auburn), but for the most part, it’s young and/or new, and rising stars.
Mullen is young (50), but he’s been in the game for more than 2 decades. That might play in favor of Mullen taking a job with Saban instead of sitting out another season and hoping to land a job for 2024.
5. The Weekly 5
Top 5 matchups in the Playoff National Championship Game:
1. Georgia CB Kelee Ringo vs. TCU WR Quentin Johnston
2. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett vs. TCU CBs Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton
3. Georgia DT Jalen Carter vs. TCU G Steve Avila
4. Georgia front 4 vs. TCU QB Max Duggan
5. Georgia TE Brock Bowers vs. TCU NB Millard Bradford
6. Your tape is your résumé
An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: LSU WR Kayshon Boutte.
“I’m not surprised he’s coming out. It didn’t fit there with (LSU coach) Brian Kelly from the jump. The talent is obvious. The elite speed, the fluidity, the ability to high point, constant, strong hands. He’s physical, he engages in the run game. What’s not to like? Individual interviews are important for all guys, and that’s where we’ll get an idea of what happened this season and why it didn’t fit.”
7. Powered Up
This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: biggest portal pick up (so far):
1. Georgia: WR Dominic Lovett, Missouri: 56 catches, 3 TDs, 15.1 ypc. in 2022.
2. Alabama: TE CJ Dippre, Maryland: 30 catches, 3 TDs, 10.5 ypc. in 2022.
3. Tennessee: LB Keenan Pili, BYU: 62 tackles in 2022, 190 career tackles in 4 seasons.
4. LSU: CB Denver Harris, Texas A&M: Twice suspended former 5-star had 3 PBUs in 2022.
5. South Carolina: TE Trey Knox, Arkansas: 81 career catches, 9 TDs in 4 seasons.
6. Mississippi State: CB Khamauri Rogers, Miami: Former 4-star was reserve in 2022.
7. Ole Miss: WR Chris Marshall, Texas A&M: Twice suspended former 5-star had 11 catches in 2022.
8. Arkansas: Edge John Morgan, Pittsburgh: 14.5 career sacks.
9. Kentucky: QB Devin Leary, NC State: Career TD/INT ratio of 64/16 over 4 seasons.
10. Missouri: WR Theo Wease, Oklahoma: 64 career catches, 10 TDs in 3 seasons.
11. Florida: DT CamRon Jackson, Memphis: 41 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack in 2022.
12. Auburn: TE Rivaldo Fairweather, FIU: 28 catches, 3 TDs, 15.2 ypc. in 2022.
13. Texas A&M: CB Tony Grimes, North Carolina: Former 5-star had 97 tackles, 1 INT, 19 PBU in 3 seasons.
14. Vanderbilt: Edge Aeneas DiCosmo: 26 tackles, 1.5 sacks in 2022.
8. Ask and you shall receive
Matt: Kentucky helped Will Levis become a first-round NFL Draft pick, why wouldn’t he play in the bowl game? — Larry Dunn, Louisville.
Larry:
The easy answer is Levis had too much future earnings to lose if he were to sustain a serious injury. I will never argue against any player opting out of a bowl game to protect his financial future.
However, you make a very good point: What was Levis before he arrived at Kentucky? What was he before UK offensive coordinator Liam Coen developed him in 2021?
That doesn’t mean he owes anything to Kentucky; he paid back that development with a 10-win season in 2021, and by sticking it out during the 2022 regular season when the offensive line was a mess and he was getting beaten up weekly.
There’s never an easy answer to these things. I know this: Bryce Young and Will Anderson staying and playing in Alabama’s bowl game is rare — and will be rarer with each passing season.
9. Numbers
38. The inefficiency at quarterback at Auburn has been staggering the past 3 seasons. Auburn’s quarterbacks combined to throw 38 TDs against 23 INTs in that span and failed to complete 60 percent of their passes.
New coach Hugh Freeze hasn’t added a quarterback yet from the portal (he will), but considering his track record, there will be a complete turnaround at the most important position on the field.
In Freeze’s 4 seasons at Liberty, 3 different quarterbacks had a TD/INT ratio of 98/45, and ran for 31 TDs.
10. Quote to note
Alabama coach Nick Saban: “I think we had a little bit of a taste in our mouth that if we had a dominant performance, it would show people that we probably did deserve to do a little better than we did in terms of the Playoff picture.”
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
