Bye?
More like bye, bye, bye, bye.
Getting a free pass into the College Football Playoff quarterfinals didn’t turn out to be any advantage for the top 4 teams in the bracket.
Some extenuating circumstances were involved, including a quirk in the selection process that overseeded conference champions Boise State and Arizona State and an injury that sidelined Georgia quarterback Carson Beck.
But in a win-or-go-home scenario, none of that matters.
Each of the top 4 seeds lost, leaving No. 5 Texas, No. 6 Penn State, No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 8 Ohio State to battle it out for the national championship.
Here are some first impressions on what to expect when the Nittany Lions take on the Irish in the Orange Bowl and the Longhorns lock horns with the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl:
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
Orange Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 9, 7:30 pm ET
The Nittany Lions have benefitted from the path of least resistance into the semifinals by beating SMU, the last at-large team into the field, and Group of 5 representative Boise State, which was only the higher seed because of the rule rewarding champions of the top 4 rated conferences, in the opening 2 rounds.
They won’t get any more scheduling breaks from here on out.
Not only will Penn State be facing by far its most difficult Playoff test, but it will also be fighting history. Coach James Franklin is just 4-20 against top-10 teams during his tenure in Happy Valley and 2-17 in his last 19 games among the nation’s elite. And one of those victories was Tuesday night’s 31-14 Fiesta Bowl triumph against Boise.
The game promises to be a low-scoring affair.
Notre Dame ranked No. 3 among FBS teams allowing only 13.6 points per game before holding Georgia to just 10 in Thursday’s Sugar Bowl victory. It’s a unit, anchored by linebacker Jack Kiser and safety Xavier Watts, that thrives on its quickness and a knack for creating turnovers.
The Irish lead the country in takeaways. They’ve forced 31 turnovers — including 2 against the Dawgs. That doesn’t bode well for Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar, who has been erratic at times and like his coach, hasn’t fared well against top competition. He made big plays against Boise (3 TD passes, matching his season-high), but he’s 0-4 with a completion percentage of just .480 against top-10 teams.
While Allar and Penn State will have to cope with Notre Dame’s speed, his counterpart Riley Leonard and the Irish’s trio of fleet running backs will be equally challenged by the physicality of All-American linebacker Abdul Carter and a Penn State defense that allows only 15.8 points per game. The Nittany Lions are also adept at forcing takeaways, with 18 interceptions, including 4 in their 2 previous Playoff games.
The early line from ESPNBet sportsbook has set the Irish as a 1.5-point favorite. But if there’s an advantage to be gained in what figures to be a toss-up game, it’s the time element. Because Penn State played its quarterfinal game on Tuesday and Notre Dame’s was postponed 24 hours to Thursday because of the New Year’s Eve tragedy in New Orleans, the Nittany Lions will have 2 extra days to rest and prepare.
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 8 Ohio State
Cotton Bowl
Friday, Jan. 10, 7:30 pm ET
This matchup is a study in contrasts. Not just in style. But how they negotiated their way through the first 2 rounds to get here.
Ohio State has made it look easy in lopsided wins against Tennessee and previously undefeated, top-ranked Oregon. Ryan Day’s team has put the hammer down early and its opponents away quickly while erasing any lingering doubts raised by its annual loss to rival Michigan.
Texas, meanwhile, raised more questions than answers after escaping its quarterfinal matchup against Arizona State in double overtime at the Peach Bowl on Wednesday. The Longhorns got off to a flying start. But struggled to put away the Sun Devils.
The why is important: Texas’ offensive line is banged up and it couldn’t contain ASU star Cam Skattebo in the running game or passing game.
Those issues could be a fatal flaw for Steve Sarkisian’s team against an opponent that has used an aerial blitz to outscore its opponents 55-10 in the first half of its 2 Playoff wins.
It’s essential for a Texas defense that ranks No. 3 nationally and whose 6 Playoff sacks are the most among the final 4 teams to pressure Ohio State quarterback Will Howard. Barely bothered in the pocket by either Tennessee or Oregon, he’s responded with his 2 best performances of the season. Star wideout Jeremiah Smith has been so spectacular that opposing coaches and NFL types already are saying the freshman sensation is NFL-ready — now.
After riddling the Volunteers for 317 yards and 2 touchdowns, Howard and Smith teamed up to do a little Duck hunting in the Rose Bowl. Howard threw for 319 yards, 187 of which went to Smith, along with 2 of his 3 touchdown strikes.
Texas will counter with a secondary unlike most. Jahdae Barron is a unanimous All-American, and Andrew Mukuba is a playmaker. Both have 5 interceptions this season. Barron most likely will shadow Smith, but at 6-0, 200, he can’t match up physically with OSU’s 6-3, 216-pound star.
Short of coming out in maize and blue instead of its customary burnt orange, Texas’ best bet against the Buckeyes is to follow the strategy Michigan used to freeze Ohio State out of the Big Ten Championship Game and temporarily raise the temperature under Day’s seat — among the fanatical fringe, anyway.
Dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Put Howard under duress and force him into making mistakes. And wear down the Buckeyes’ top-ranked defense with an effective running attack.
The third of those elements will depend largely on the health of the Longhorns’ offensive line. But while some of their inability to run the ball against Arizona State can be blamed on the absence of starting right tackle Cameron Williams, who missed the game after suffering a knee injury against Clemson, their ground game has been inconsistent even with him in the lineup.
Texas won’t have to pile up 292 rushing yards like it did against Clemson to beat Ohio State and earn a shot at the national title, but it will certainly have to produce more than the 31 it got against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and 53 it managed against the Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl to give itself a realistic chance.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
