November has arrived, and that brings matchups that will shape the look of the College Football Playoff. The Saturday Down South staff returns to give their ATS picks for the top Week 10 college football games.
Let’s dive in.
(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 10 college football picks
Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 10. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.
Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State
Spenser Davis: I like Penn State this week. This line was somewhere around Ohio State –4.5 back in the summer. The Nittany Lions, for as much as they’ve disappointed, have not been blown out yet this season. They almost beat a pretty good Iowa team in their first game without James Franklin. I think Penn State keeps this one closer than expected. PICK: Penn State +21.5
Andy Olson: Penn State is rested, coming off a bye week. The Nittany Lions still have talent. It doesn’t matter. PSU won’t be able to hang with Ohio State, especially in Columbus. This Buckeye team is a juggernaut. PICK: Ohio State –20.5
Derek Peterson: Inexperienced quarterbacks have been bad against the Ohio State defense all season, and now an inexperienced quarterback who didn’t look solid in his last game has to play in Columbus. I like the Buckeyes. PICK: Ohio State –20.5
Adam Spencer: I’m glad I waited until Thursday night to make my picks. Ohio State is down to –19.5 at DraftKings, and that’s what I’m taking. I just think this will be a game where the Buckeyes are so firmly in control that they take their foot off the gas pedal in the second half. I’d worry about Ohio State –21.5 and even Ohio State –20.5, but at –19.5, I’ll ride with the Buckeyes. PICK: Ohio State –19.5
Ethan Stone: Penn State has zero shot here. Ethan Grunkemeyer looked awful against Iowa’s defense and Ohio State is on another level entirely. On top of that, the Nittany Lions have to travel to Columbus. I would be very surprised to see Penn State score more than 2 touchdowns. PICK: Ohio State –20.5
Navy at North Texas
SD: Anytime a ranked team is an underdog against an unranked foe, I typically side with the side that Vegas thinks more highly of. In this case, it’s relatively easy. North Texas has an excellent quarterback in Drew Mestemaker and Navy has one of the worst-performing secondaries in the nation. North Texas struggled with Army earlier this season but I like that the Mean Green have seen this style of offense already once this season. PICK: North Texas –6.5
AO: This presents a fascinating contrast of styles. I like Navy to keep it close by limiting North Texas’s possessions. Not sure about the final score, but I feel good about the Midshipmen covering this spread. PICK: Navy +7
DP: North Texas is having an outstanding season, but I can’t rinse the taste of that 63-36 loss to South Florida from my mouth. It was a huge game, and USF blew it open with 28 third-quarter points. The Bulls ran for 306 yards that day, with 5 different players recording an explosive run. And that wasn’t the worst performance of the season from the UNT run defense. I’ll take the Midshipmen. PICK: Navy +7
AS: I’ll go with North Texas in this one. The Mean Green still have an outside chance of a Playoff berth and they get the Midshipmen at home. They won’t be in a mood to mess around on Saturday. PICK: North Texas –6.5
ES: Navy boasts the No. 1 rushing offense in the country in yards per game and averages the 12th-most rushing attempts per game. North Texas is allowing opponents 190 rushing yards per game, which ranks 120th in the nation. And on top of all of that, Navy gets the points. PICK: Navy +6.5
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas
SD: Texas was terrible last week, but I expect this to be a really difficult road game for the Commodores. Vandy hasn’t played particularly well on offense on the road this season. Texas’s offense is also coming off of its best SEC game of the season against Mississippi State. The Texas defense should also be better this week as it expects safety Michael Taaffe to be back in the lineup. Arch Manning’s status is a question, but he’s trending toward playing. PICK: Texas –2.5
AO: I respect that Texas has found ways to win after stumbling in The Swamp, but I just can’t trust its offense. The Longhorns have repeatedly struggled to run the ball against non-Oklahoma SEC teams. Arch Manning put up some great numbers at Mississippi State, but what if Bad Arch shows up again Saturday? I’ll ride with the Commodores. PICK: Vanderbilt +2.5
DP: I don’t like anything about the Longhorns’ profile right now, and I don’t trust Arch Manning to string together consecutive good performances. But I also think this is a dangerous spot for Vanderbilt. I guess I should have gotten the tighter number earlier in the week; I was holding out to get Texas as a dog. Oh well. PICK: Texas –2.5
AS: I don’t know what to make of this game with the Arch Manning situation. Is he going to play? Does it matter if he plays? The Texas defense will be the story of this one, regardless. How contained can it keep Diego Pavia and the Commodores? Again, this is one where I’m glad I waited until Thursday night to make my picks and get Vanderbilt at +3.5 on ESPN Bet. PICK: Vanderbilt +3.5
ES: Texas cannot play like it did against Kentucky and Mississippi State and expect Vanderbilt to not walk away with a win. The Commodores don’t make many mistakes and Diego Pavia is playing at a high level. Plus, Vanderbilt probably has the best offensive line in the SEC apart from Texas A&M. I think Vandy will keep this going. PICK: Vanderbilt +2.5
Army at Air Force
SD: Air Force has the worst FBS defense in the country and I’m not sure it’s close. Air Force’s offense is elite, but Army’s body of work is just more impressive. The Black Knights have also won 6 of the last 8 meetings in this series. PICK: Army +1.5
AO: Air Force has not been good at defense this year (thankfully, this is just about the gridiron). I’m not ready to put much stock in one good game against Wyoming. I’ll take the Cadets. PICK: Army +1.5
DP: I just can’t trust the Air Force defense. PICK: Army +1.5
AS: I don’t have anything to say about this game that hasn’t already been said. Air Force’s defense has been atrocious. This should be a classic service academy showdown with lots of running plays and some physical (if not elite) defense. PICK: Army +1.5
ES: It’s a toss-up between 2 well-conditioned teams who can run the ball yet struggle to defend the run. At elevation. It feels like this one could get weird, so I’ll go with the home team. PICK: Air Force -1
Duke at Clemson
SD: I have been wrong on Duke in both directions in multiple games this season. I’m picking Clemson in this game strictly because I can get it at –2.5. If this line was 3.5, I’d take the Blue Devils. Clemson has a lot more talent and is coming off of a bye, too. PICK: Clemson –2.5
AO: I took SMU over Clemson previously because of the Cade Klubnik situation, but Chris Vizzina showed he can handle being QB1 when called upon. I’ll take the Tigers at home here. PICK: Clemson –2.5
DP: Duke is probably the better team, but that hasn’t mattered in key spots this season because the Blue Devils have managed to shoot themselves in the foot. They gave the ball away like candy in a loss to Illinois. A fumble return then burned them in the loss to Georgia Tech. PICK: Clemson -3
AS: I’ll ride with the home team in this one. Clemson is playing for its dignity in this one. Falling to 3-5 on the season would have even more fans becoming disgruntled with Dabo Swinney. He gets a 1-week reprieve from criticism with a comfortable home win. PICK: Clemson -3
ES: These teams are inconsistent at best, but Duke has performed better on the road than Clemson has at home this season. I’ll take the points in a toss-up. PICK: Duke +3
No. 5 Georgia vs. Florida (Jacksonville)
SD: I love this spot for Florida. The Gators should get an interim coach bump and they’ll face a Georgia team that’s only lost once but has been in close games with mediocre teams quite a bit this season. This Florida roster is really talented and I’m excited to see what Billy Gonzales can get out of it this weekend. PICK: Florida +7.5
AO: Florida-Georgia (the correct name for this game) just means more when it’s played on your birthday weekend every year. The Andylytics note that years that end in 5 have gone well for the Gators. Steve Spurrier’s squad put up Half a Hundred Between the Hedges in 1995. Ten years later, Urban Meyer picked up his first of 5 wins against Georgia. In 2015, Mark Richt went out with a whimper. PICK: Florida +7.5
DP: With the potential for new wrinkles off a bye week, I like Florida against a wildly overrated Georgia team. PICK: Florida +7.5
AS: I was all set to pick the Bulldogs here and say that the interim coach bump is overrated. Then I read Andy’s section on the “Andylytics” for this game. And after checking the season-long Friday Forecast records and seeing that he’s in first and I’m in last, who am I to argue with the Andylytics? PICK: Florida +7.5
ES: There’s too much uncertainty surrounding how Florida is going to react to being without Billy Napier for a Florida pick here. Georgia is simply the safer pick. PICK: Georgia -7
South Carolina at No. 7 Ole Miss
SD: I’m happy to sell Ole Miss coming off of its big win in Norman. Oklahoma missed a lot of opportunities on offense in that game. If the Sooners had won, I wonder if this line might be on the other side of 10 or 11. This is also a crucial game for South Carolina’s bowl hopes. I think we get a really good effort out of the Gamecocks and they keep this within the number: PICK: South Carolina +13
AO: Every SEC game has been close for Ole Miss this season. South Carolina has been pretty unpredictable, but I think Shane Beamer gets a strong effort from his team as this is salvage-the-season time. I like the Gamecocks with the points. PICK: South Carolina +12.5
DP: I keep thinking about last season’s win over Georgia and subsequent loss to Florida, and I keep wondering if that same Ole Miss team is going to show up against the Gamecocks. If it does, South Carolina will obviously cover this 2-score spread. If Ole Miss is actually focused on the task at hand, they should handle a bad SC team. PICK: Ole Miss -12.5
AS: If there’s one coach who knows how to handle coaching carousel rumors involving his name, it’s Lane Kiffin. He’s been through it so many times with so many different results that I think he’s mastered how to react to the rumors. I expect Ole Miss to be on a warpath toward the Playoff starting this weekend. PICK: Ole Miss -12
ES: Beamer gets his teams ready to play in November. Kiffin and the Rebels, meanwhile, are past the toughest part of their schedule and only need to ride the waves to the College Football Playoff. At the very least, I think the Gamecocks keep this one close. PICK: South Carolina +12.5
No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee
SD: I could see this one going either way but I think Oklahoma is live to win outright. Brent Venables did pretty well against Josh Heupel when these teams met last season, and that will be the key matchup in this game. On the other side of the ball, I expect OU’s offense will be able to move the ball pretty consistently against a Tennessee defense that’s been among the most disappointing units in the country this season. PICK: Oklahoma +3.5
AO: Much is made of Oklahoma’s 12.5 points per game, but Texas and Ole Miss showed everyone that it’s not impossible to score on OU. The Sooners need this to be a low-scoring game, but the Tennessee offense has too much firepower. Vols roll on Rocky Top. PICK: Tennessee -3
DP: Oklahoma will try to make it a low-scoring game. In such a situation, I trust Tennessee’s offense to come through in the clutch more than OU’s. If Tennessee puts points on the board and turns this into a bit more of a chase, I don’t trust OU to keep up. PICK: Tennessee -2.5
AS: I think Tennessee wins this one by exactly a field goal, so I could really take my pick of Oklahoma +3.5 or Tennessee –2.5. I’ll go with the Vols, though. The way Joey Aguilar airs it out down the field is special. Sure, Oklahoma will likely come up with a turnover or 2, but I don’t think John Mateer’s thumb is healthy enough for the Sooners to keep pace with the Vols. PICK: Tennessee –2.5
ES: It feels like neither fanbase feels good about this game, but the Vols are just tough to beat in Neyland. This is where Tennessee thrives, and I’m not sure Mateer is 100% healthy enough to properly torch a bad Vols secondary. Tennessee has beaten itself a lot this season, but being at home mitigates that problem. A lot of reasons to like the Vols here. PICK: Tennessee -3
No. 23 USC at Nebraska
SD: You’re going to hear a lot about Lincoln Riley’s road record this week, particularly when traveling multiple time zones away from Southern California. None of that matters as much as this: Nebraska can’t stop the run. At all. Not even a little bit. USC is second in the entire country in rushing success rate, per Game on Paper. PICK: USC -6
AO: USC has had some road woes this season, but a few advantages give me confidence in the Trojans. Nebraska may have protection issues against the USC pass rush. The Trojans have one of the Big Ten’s best ground attacks, and we all know Jayden Maiava can air it out. PICK: USC -6
DP: Nebraska can’t stop the run and it can’t protect its quarterback. The Huskers also haven’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016. That drought will eventually end, but I’m playing the odds here. PICK: USC -4.5
AS: Lincoln (Riley) visiting Lincoln (Nebraska)? Abraham (Lincoln) would have loved this matchup. This game will come down to what happens when USC tries to throw the ball. The Trojans have the best passing offense in the Big Ten. The Huskers have the second-best pass defense in the B1G. I’ll give the slight edge to the Trojans. PICK: USC –4.5
ES: I don’t trust USC’s road record against a good Nebraska team, and I like this spread for the Huskers. PICK: Nebraska +6
No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah
SD: This is too many points. Utah is a physical team and that goes a long way against most Big 12 opponents. But Cincy has already played — and performed relatively well against — teams like Nebraska and Iowa State. Cincy also has the better quarterback in this matchup in Brendan Sorsby. I’ll take the points. PICK: Cincinnati +10.5
AO: I generally default to backing Utah at home, as Rice-Eccles is a tough place to play. This time, it’s too many points to lay with the Utes. PICK: Cincinnati +10.5
DP: It looks like Devon Dampier is going to play for Utah, which blew the hooves off Colorado last weekend with Dampier’s backup handling the offense. The Utes have only played 1 close game all year — a 24-21 loss to BYU — so, in that way, I guess the 2-score spread makes sense. Outside of that, I can’t come up with a reason why this number is so large. PICK: Cincinnati +10.5
AS: Cincinnati isn’t getting enough respect. Brendan Sorsby is a true dual-threat quarterback who can, at the very least keep this score within 10 points. PICK: Cincinnati +10.5
ES: Utah, home or away, has struggled against good offenses this season. The Utes fell to the 2 best they played this season — Texas Tech and BYU. This one being in Salt Lake makes me lean Utah, but the spread is just too much here to take the Utes. PICK: Cincinnati +10
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
