We have officially reached the closing stretch of the 2025 regular season. It’s crunch time.
The Saturday Down South staff returns to give their ATS picks for the top Week 12 college football games.
Let’s dive in.
(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 12 college football picks
Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 12. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.
Clemson at No. 20 Louisville
Spenser Davis: Louisville’s loss to Cal last week was absolutely inexcusable. Miller Moss has quietly become one of the ACC’s least-efficient quarterbacks in recent weeks. Over his last 3 games, Moss is averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt and has more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2). With that being said, I’m still taking Louisville to cover this number at home. Clemson didn’t really out-play Florida State by that much last week despite a 14-point margin. I think Louisville will be fired up to play this game and will be much more effective than it was last week against Cal. PICK: Louisville -2.5
Andy Olson: The line seems about right to me, as this is a game I’d expect Louisville to win by a field goal. My concern is with the Cardinals having a tough path to the College Football Playoff. But they’re not mathematically eliminated, so there shouldn’t be any quit on display Saturday. PICK: Louisville -2.5
Derek Peterson: Louisville has played one good game since the start of October, and that was against a Miami team notorious for screwing around in ACC play. The Cardinals have grown remarkably inefficient on offense and Clemson has averaged close to 40 points over its last 4 with Cade Klubnik in the starting lineup. PICK: Clemson +2.5
Adam Spencer: The ACC is a complete crapshoot this year. Anyone can seemingly beat anyone on any given Saturday. (Or Friday, such as it were.) I’ll flip a coin and say it landed on Louisville here. Give me the Cardinals to stay in the ACC title game mix. PICK: Louisville -2.5
Ethan Stone: Louisville is considerably less of a disaster than Clemson this season. Given the Cardinals are at home and only need 3 points, I’ll stick with Louisville. PICK: Louisville -2.5
South Carolina at No. 3 Texas A&M
SD: I like the Gamecocks this week. Texas A&M is coming off a big win and might already be looking ahead to a couple of weeks from now when it will face Texas. I’m also interested to see South Carolina’s offense without Mike Shula running the show. The Gamecocks are off a bye so we should see a good effort here as they look to build momentum for next season. PICK: South Carolina +19.5
AO: I went back and forth on this one. The matchups are all A&M but a couple outside factors swung me to the South Carolina cover. The Gamecocks may try some things that aren’t on the game tape with the recent OC change. With the morning kick in College Station, I wonder about A&M’s energy for a lesser SEC game. PICK: South Carolina +19.5
DP: I took the Aggies earlier in the week and I’m sticking with that pick here. I don’t think South Carolina is equipped to keep the Aggies’ front from running the game. PICK: Texas A&M -18.5
AS: This is yet another chance for the Aggies to make a statement to the Playoff committee. They’re right there lurking if Ohio State or Indiana has any sort of slip-up. I like the Aggies to take care of business on Saturday. PICK: Texas A&M -19.5
ES: I genuinely believe South Carolina is going to keep fighting until the season is over, no matter how much they lose. The Gamecocks are going to lose this one as well, but I think they’ll keep it close. PICK: South Carolina +19.5
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 22 Pitt
SD: If Notre Dame plays a clean game, this won’t be close. Pitt has a true freshman at quarterback in Mason Heintschel. He’s got 11 turnover-worthy plays in only 6 games this season, according to PFF. I think Notre Dame will win the turnover battle decisively and cruise to a big road win with CJ Carr leading the way. PICK: Notre Dame –10.5
AO: Pitt’s wins don’t stand out as all that impressive considering the opponents. Notre Dame is better tested. The Irish have dominated the ACC over the last few years, and I expect that to continue on Saturday. PICK: Notre Dame –12.5
DP: Too many points here. Pitt has looked different since switching quarterbacks and Notre Dame has essentially looked like itself on defense once in 7 games against power conference teams this season. PICK: Pitt +11.5
AS: Notre Dame can’t afford to let this opportunity to bolster its Playoff résumé slip by. The Irish not only need to win this game, they need to do it with some style points. PICK: Notre Dame -11
ES: Judging by Pat Narduzzi’s technically true comments this week, it doesn’t seem like the Panthers have the right attitude heading into this one. Notre Dame needs this and Pitt doesn’t. That just about settles it. PICK: Notre Dame –12.5
Arkansas at LSU
SD: I think Arkansas is live to win this outright. This would be a massive win for a Razorbacks program that has continued to fight under the leadership of Bobby Petrino. LSU, meanwhile, can’t wait to get to the offseason. I’m expecting Michael Van Buren to start for the Tigers, and we might get a sloppy performance out of the LSU offense. PICK: Arkansas +6.5
AO: Feels like this one sets up real well for Arkansas. The situations aren’t the same, but I think of how Florida played Georgia and then Kentucky. LSU probably emptied the tank against Alabama. Tiger Stadium in the daytime is not the same as a night game. If the Hogs are going to get an SEC win, this might be their best shot. PICK: Arkansas +5.5
DP: Has LSU figured out how to defend mobile quarterbacks yet? No? Well, that answers that. PICK: Arkansas +5.5
AS: I’m expecting pure and utter chaos in this game. Anything can happen. I wouldn’t be shocked if Arkansas found another creative way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the fourth quarter of this game, but I’ll back the Hogs to cover 6.5 points anyway. PICK: Arkansas +6.5
ES: I think Adam is spot on here. This feels like it’ll be close enough for Arkansas to win, at the very least. PICK: Arkansas +6
No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama
SD: Alabama hasn’t played well on offense in about a month. Ty Simpson has really struggled against pressure this season and now he has to face one of the best defensive lines in the country. I think we get a relatively low-scoring game here and I’d back the Sooners to keep it within the number (and have a chance to win outright in the fourth quarter). PICK: Oklahoma +6.5
AO: It would take a lot for me to pick against Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Oklahoma has a great run defense, but Bama leans on the passing attack anyway. Tide by a touchdown in a revenge game feels about right. PICK: Alabama -5.5
DP: Alabama can’t run the ball, but that hasn’t been detrimental to the bottom line since the opener. Oklahoma’s offense makes me worried; I don’t think there’s enough there to pull off another road win against a better team. PICK: Alabama -6
AS: Alabama is a beast at home. It has been since Nick Saban was prowling the sidelines and that hasn’t changed under Kalen DeBoer. I think the Sooners will keep it close in the first half, but Ty Simpson will have a second-half showing that puts him back into the Heisman Trophy picture. PICK: Alabama -5.5
ES: I was very unimpressed with Oklahoma when the Sooners beat Tennessee a few weeks ago. Tennessee played about as bad as it possibly could and still just about won it at the end. Alabama is on another level, especially defensively, and has been great at home this season. I’ll take the Tide by a touchdown or more. PICK: Alabama –
NC State at No. 15 Miami
SD: I’ve been fading Miami in spots like this for a while now but I’m going to give the Canes another chance. NC State’s defense is absolutely terrible. In their last 3 games, the Wolfpack have allowed 36 to Notre Dame, 53 to Pittsburgh and 36 to Georgia Tech. It’s remarkable NC State was still able to beat the Yellow Jackets despite conceding 8 yards per play. I think a Miami blowout is more likely, though. PICK: Miami -15
AO: Does anybody really know what we can expect from either team? Maybe the Hurricanes learned something from last year’s collapse. Perhaps Miami has some juice from its latest CFP ranking and will be looking to make a statement as it tries for an at-large bid. PICK: Miami -14.5
DP: There’s track meet potential with this game, which means a backdoor cover in garbage time is on the board. NC State, though inept defensively, has found a bit of a groove on offense in recent weeks. Plus, there’s no telling what headspace the Canes are in. PICK: NC State +15.5
AS: Isn’t this exactly the kind of game Mario Cristobal’s teams always falter in? NC State probably isn’t as good as the Louisville team that Miami lost to at home a few weeks ago, but I still like the Wolfpack to at least cover the spread here. PICK: NC State +15.5
ES: NC State’s defense is really terrible, but this is hard to pick because the Wolfpack are so hot and cold. Since Miami is similarly hard to read this season, I’ll take the massive spread in favor of NC State. PICK: NC State +15.5
No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC
SD: Iowa has one of the most efficient rushing offenses in the country and USC can’t stop the run at all. USC has more talent, but I think the Hawkeyes will be inspired in their first trip to USC since 1976. PICK: Iowa +7
AO: Iowa played Oregon much closer than I expected. But I feel like the weather and Kinnick Stadium in November deserve a lot of credit. I don’t see the Hawkeyes keeping up with this USC offense. PICK: USC- 6.5
DP: I have basically the same read on this game as Andy. Iowa shot its shot last week. No one has made the trip out to L.A. and kept it close against the Trojans. PICK: USC -6.5
AS: Iowa tends to make almost every game it plays a struggle for all involved. I think the Hawkeyes can keep this within a touchdown on the road. PICK: Iowa +7
ES: Iowa has honestly been really impressive this season. The Hawkeyes have a semblance of an offense, especially their run game, and force opponents to play their style. I don’t think that’s a good thing for Jayden Maiava given how Dante Moore performed last week against this defense. PICK: Iowa +7
Florida at No. 7 Ole Miss
SD: I can’t bet Florida at anything close to this number after seeing its effort last weekend against Kentucky. The dynamics around Lane Kiffin and Florida are certainly interesting, but I don’t think he’d have any issue with running up the score on the Gators if the opportunity presents itself. PICK: Ole Miss -14
AO: New Billy, same problem. The 2025 Florida Gators play terribly in true road games. Whether it’s DJ Lagway or Tramell Jones, I expect the UF quarterback to be under pressure early and often, making it a long day for the orange and blue on offense. PICK: Ole Miss -13.5
DP: A loss at Florida last season prevented one of the best teams in Ole Miss history from going to the CFP. I wonder if the memory of that carries more weight this week than the Florida distraction for coach Lane Kiffin. PICK: Ole Miss -10.5
AS: How much did Lane Kiffin learn from 2022 when his name was being mentioned at Auburn and his Ole Miss team cratered down the stretch? I think he’s a completely different person and coach than he was back then and I’m buying all the Kiffin stock I can. Give me Ole Miss to win this one big. PICK: Ole Miss -13.5
ES: Florida is saving its energy for next week so it can turn into the ‘85 Bears, just like it does every time Tennessee comes to Gainesville. On a real note, the Gators just lost by 30 to Kentucky, so I think Ole Miss can handle this. PICK: Ole Miss -14
No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia
SD: I’ve faded Georgia a lot this season but I think the Bulldogs win by a touchdown. Texas’s offensive line has not been good. UGA hasn’t managed much pressure this season, but I think it will be in the backfield often enough to bother Arch Manning on Saturday. I also like that Kirby Smart seems to have Sarkisian’s number. Smart beat Steve Sarkisian twice last season. PICK: Georgia -5.5
AO: Billy Napier visited Georgia practice this week. Look out for the Bulldogs to suffer from a self-inflicted error at the worst possible time. PICK: Texas +6.5
DP: I think we’re looking at a back-and-forth game here between 2 offenses that will try to dump it quick and short and let their playmakers work in space. I don’t trust Georgia. PICK: Texas +6.5
AS: Both of these teams played some of their best football in their last games. Texas is coming off a bye week, but I still like Georgia and Kirby Smart to get the job done at home and start a new home night game winning streak. PICK: Georgia -6
ES: Texas flopping against Ohio State and Florida on the road earlier this season makes an already easy decision that much easier. I’m not betting against Kirby Smart in this type of game. PICK: Georgia -6
TCU at No. 12 BYU
SD: BYU got smoked last week in Lubbock, but the Cougars played a little better than the final score might indicate. They were only out-gained by 1 yard per play in a game that finished 29-7. BYU had some flukey special teams plays go against it early and never really recovered against an elite Texas Tech defense. TCU does not have anything close to an elite defense. The Horned Frogs give up a ton of explosive plays and have a mediocre-at-best secondary. I think BYU will be much better at home this week. PICK: BYU -3.5
AO: This line feels like a bit of an overreaction to the Texas Tech game. The Red Raiders absolutely won that game in impressive fashion, but BYU had bad bounces and could have easily kept it closer if a few sequences went differently. I like the Cougars to bounce back strong at home. PICK: BYU -3.5
DP: BYU did this last season, opening the season with a roar only to fall apart down the stretch. A comprehensive beating in Lubbock puts the Cougars in familiar territory, but not out of the Big 12 title picture just yet. They can stabilize by beating a TCU team that hasn’t looked right on offense in weeks. PICK: BYU -3
AS: BYU still has everything to play for. The Cougars have been nearly impossible to beat at home. They’ll bounce back in a big way and cover this spread in Week 12. PICK: BYU -3.5
ES: A great Texas Tech quarterback just kind of exposed BYU’s secondary, and the Red Raiders didn’t really have all that great of a game. BYU always loses late in the year before completely imploding, so I like TCU straight up here. PICK: TCU +3.5
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
