Friday Forecast 2025: SDS staff picks against the spread for Week 13

The Saturday Down South staff returns to give their ATS picks for the top Week 13 college football games.

Let’s dive in.

(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece might not necessarily reflect current odds.)

Week 13 college football picks

Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 13. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.

No. 22 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma 

Spenser Davis: I think Oklahoma wins, but I like Mizzou against the number at anything over a touchdown. The advanced metrics suggest OU was highly fortunate to win last weekend in Tuscaloosa. Missouri might be out-matched in Norman, but I don’t think Oklahoma’s offense is good enough to truly separate. Even if OU gets up by a couple scores, Mizzou could find the back door late. Pick: Mizzou +7.5 

Andy Olson: I’m making this pick with Beau Pribula questionable and I’d rather not have QB uncertainty, but this is more about the Oklahoma defense playing at home. This Sooner run defense is the real deal. I think OU might join the exclusive club of teams to contain Ahmad Hardy. PICK: Oklahoma -7 

Derek Peterson: Oklahoma leads the nation in rushing success rate allowed. The Sooners have the tools to bottle up Ahmad Hardy, and that will make things difficult on Beau Pribula, should he actually return. I held out for this to dip under a touchdown and I got it. PICK: Oklahoma -6.5 

Adam Spencer: This is a bad spot for Mizzou. Even if Beau Pribula is able to play, he’s not going to be the dynamic guy we saw earlier this year. Ahmad Hardy can still go for 100-plus yards, but I don’t think the Tigers will be able to finish in the red zone well enough to win this game. PICK: Oklahoma -6.5 

Ethan Stone: I like the Sooners here, assuming Zollers is starting at QB for the Tigers. I think he’ll be a good player for Mizzou, but he struggled mightily against Texas A&M and will have to face a similarly tough Sooners defense in Norman. One that forces a lot of turnovers, too. Admittedly, I do wonder if Oklahoma can put enough points on the board, but I’ll ride the hot hand. PICK: Oklahoma -7.5 

Louisville at SMU 

SD: I question how much Louisville has left in the tank after back-to-back crushing losses to Clemson and Cal. The Cardinals don’t have much to play for this season with a 4-3 record in ACC play. SMU, though, could land an ACC Championship Game berth if things break right. SMU also has an elite rushing defense, which makes the Mustangs a tough matchup for a Louisville offense that’s much more efficient on the ground than through the air. PICK: SMU -2.5 

AO: Louisville was a dreadful watch in the Clemson game, and it’s hard not to expect the same or worse as the Cardinals limp to the finish line. PICK: SMU -2.5 

DP: I like SMU to keep the Louisville offense sputtering. Miller Moss puts the ball in danger far too often and the SMU defense is not a unit you want to flirt with. PICK: SMU -2.5 

AS: It’s late in the season and you can’t hold anything back now. I heard someone say that once. I’m going with Louisville here because all the other guys are picking SMU. This is my chance to make up some ground. I believe in you, Jeff Brohm! PICK: Louisville +3 

ES: These teams are going in completely opposite directions. I’ll take that trend to continue, especially with the Mustangs at home. PICK: SMU -2.5 

No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon 

SD: It’s Week 13 and I’m still not sure how good Oregon is. It’s been a mixed bag week-to-week for the Ducks this season despite their nearly-perfect record. I think USC’s passing offense has an edge in this game. Maybe Oregon just gets enough explosive runs to win by multiple touchdowns, but I think the Trojans can keep this within 10. If they get a couple turnovers, they might even be live to win outright. PICK: USC +10.5 

AO: I like Oregon to win at home, but this feels like too many points for a Ducks team that isn’t dominating every opponent. PICK: USC +10.5 

DP: USC hasn’t won a game like this in a while, and Oregon is a threat to jump out to an early lead. At home, given everything at stake, USC fights hard but Oregon pulls it out. PICK: Oregon -9.5 

AS: The Trojans are fighting for their Playoff lives. They can’t absorb this loss and still make the 12-team field. I expect them to fight hard, even though I’m picking Oregon to win outright. USC can at least make it interesting in the fourth quarter. PICK: USC +10.5 

ES: Both these teams move the ball well enough for me to believe USC can keep it closer, at least. Trojans are flying way under the radar. PICK: USC +10 

Arkansas at No. 17 Texas 

SD: I don’t know how many times Arkansas can get off the mat. I’ll buy Texas coming off a beatdown loss against Georgia that was probably a bit closer than the final score indicates. Texas was over-matched in the trenches against UGA but should have an advantage in this game. This Arkansas defense has been bad enough that I expect Steve Sarkisian will have some pretty good answers. Texas should comfortably win by double digits at home. PICK: Texas -8.5  

AO: Despite all these close losses, Arkansas isn’t showing any quit under interim coach Bobby Petrino. The Razorbacks will certainly be up for Texas, a rivalry that’s a bit slept on in the SEC community. I like a woo pig cover. PICK: Arkansas +9.5 

DP: I like the Longhorns. I’m not sure how much Arkansas has left. Texas, on the other hand, probably still believes it has an outside shot at making the CFP. PICK: Texas -8.5 

AS: This seems like a no-brainer to me. Arkansas loses every game by 1 score in humiliating fashion. The Longhorns’ offense is inconsistent (to put it politely). I, for one, cannot wait to see what creative way the Hogs find to lose this game in the fourth quarter. PICK: Arkansas +9.5 

ES: Arkansas keeps every game close. I also wonder how Texas will respond after Georgia thumped them last week. PICK: Arkansas +9.5 

Duke at North Carolina 

SD: Duke has been really underwhelming down the stretch. North Carolina lost last week too, but the Tar Heels also showed some real signs of life over the middle part of the season. UNC has to win out in order to make a bowl game. I think we’ll see a really strong effort from Carolina at home on Saturday. PICK: North Carolina +7 

AO: The season got off to a really rough start for UNC, but the Tar Heels actually have a decent defense these days. Considering the rivalry, I’ll take the home dog with points. PICK: North Carolina +7 

DP: Duke is fading. Give me the Tar Heels at home. PICK: North Carolina +7  

AS: I have no idea what to expect from this game. I’m picking Duke just to fade Bill Belichick one more time. The Blue Devils score a big win in a road rivalry game. PICK: Duke -6.5 

ES: Duke has a quarterback, and while it is a rivalry game, everything about North Carolina is the opposite of what I want a team I’m betting on to look like. PICK: Duke -6.5 

No. 18 Michigan at Maryland 

SD: I think this line is about right but I’ll take the Wolverines to win by a couple touchdowns. Bryce Underwood has been a bit underwhelming this season, but Michigan’s passing success rate is still solid. The rushing stats are elite. On the other side, Maryland’s offense has been putrid for a power-conference team this season. I don’t love laying this many points with Michigan on the road (especially with Ohio State on deck), but I will in this case. PICK: Michigan -13.5 

AO: Maryland made the interesting decision to retain Mike Locksley for 2026. With that clarity on the future, the Terrapins might play a bit better on Saturday. I’ll take the points and see if the Terps can deliver the cover as a big underdog at home. PICK: Maryland +14.5 

DP: Slightly concerning to back the Wolverines as a 2-score favorite a week before the game of their season, but that’s how bad the Maryland offense has become. The Terps have no run game to speak of and the Wolverines will likely try to generate some momentum heading into the finale after back-to-back lackluster outings. PICK: Michigan -13.5 

AS: I’ll take the hook here. I don’t think Maryland is as bad as it has played this year. I also don’t trust the Michigan offense to truly blow out anyone. Beating Purdue by 5 and Northwestern by 2 doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in that regard. PICK: Maryland +14.5 

ES: Four-game winning streak, meet 6-game losing streak. Maryland has rolled over for some of its opponents this season, and Michigan is chasing a Playoff spot. Even in a potential lookahead spot, I like Michigan to win by a lot. PICK: Michigan -14 

Pitt at No. 16 Georgia Tech 

SD: For some reason, no one seems to recognize how bad Georgia Tech’s defense is. It’s reprehensible. The Yellow Jackets are 129th out of 134 FBS teams in EPA-per-play allowed this season. I love Pitt in this spot coming off of a blowout loss to a Notre Dame team that’s a legit national title contender. PICK: Pitt +3 

AO: Pitt’s resume as a 7-3 team is pretty weak, and Pat Narduzzi really made a fool of himself before the Notre Dame blowout. I don’t see the Panthers bouncing back on the road. Georgia Tech should be able to win this by a field goal. PICK: Georgia Tech -2.5 

DP: This is the season for Georgia Tech. If the Yellow Jackets lose this game, it probably doesn’t matter what happens against Georgia. If they win, they should make the ACC title game. Pitt hasn’t been able to stop anyone lately either. PICK: Georgia Tech -2.5 

AS: If this was in Pittsburgh, I’d pick the Panthers to cover. However, the game is in Atlanta, so give me the Yellow Jackets to win by 3+ points. I also love the over for this game since, as Spenser mentioned above, Georgia Tech is atrocious defensively. PICK: Georgia Tech -2.5 

ES: Pittsburgh’s defense has not been good against good quarterbacks this season, so I don’t think either team will have trouble moving the ball. I lean GT with home-field advantage. PICK: Georgia Tech -2.5 

Nebraska at Penn State 

SD: I don’t think Nebraska trusts its quarterback. TJ Lateef has thrown the ball 22 times in 2 games since taking over for the injured Dylan Raiola. Nebraska has run the ball 67% of the time in November, which ranks 8^th nationally behind the service academies, Rice, and a few other teams who clearly don’t trust their quarterbacks. I just question whether or not that type of offense will have any meaningful success now that so much of what Nebraska wants to do is on tape. PICK: Penn State -8 

AO: Eight points feels like a bit much considering Nebraska’s defense and ground game. I’ll go for the Husker cover. PICK: Nebraska +8.5 

DP: Nebraska won’t do much to expose its young quarterback, but that’s fine because neither of these teams can stop the run. I think it’ll be a fight. PICK: Nebraska +9.5 

AS: If Dylan Raiola was still healthy, I’d pick Nebraska to at least cover, and maybe even win outright. As it is, I’ll take the Penn State rushing attack to give the Nittany Lions an early lead and then the defense to shut down TJ Lateef and company. PICK: Penn State -8 

ES: Both of these teams have played a lot of close games this season. I don’t see why this one should be any different, especially with Nebraska having the better-performing defense entering this one. PICK: Nebraska +8 

No. 20 Tennessee at Florida 

SD: I liked what I saw from Florida in Oxford last weekend. The Gators are still fighting. This is also Florida’s first home game since firing Billy Napier, so I imagine Billy Gonzales will have his team ready to go. Tennessee’s defense has been horrible for much of this season too, so look out for some big plays downfield from DJ Lagway. I think this game is decided by a field goal either way. PICK: Florida +4.5 

AO: Florida saw upset bids in Jacksonville and Oxford slip away in the fourth quarter. A little “We Are The Boys” and “I Won’t Back Down” with The Swamp sold out may help the Gators finish in a rivalry game. PICK: Florida +4.5 

DP: Don’t like the Tennessee defense. But I haven’t loved DJ Lagway either this season, and a ton of key skill guys are either out or questionable in the game. PICK: Tennessee -3.5  

AS: Are Tennessee’s corners playing? They aren’t? OK, Florida keeps it close then. PICK: Florida +4.5 

ES: Tennessee doesn’t beat Florida in Gainesville, and these Vols are generationally talented at getting in their own way. With my season record in mind, and as a UT alum, accept this pick as me giving my all, Vol Nation. PICK: Florida +4.5 

No. 11 BYU at Cincinnati 

SD: I view BYU as significantly overrated entering Week 13. The Cougars should have at least 1 or 2 more losses this season, and I think they could get surprised by Cincinnati on the road this weekend. PICK: Cincinnati +2.5 

AO: I suppose blowing out TCU was enough to get me back on the BYU bandwagon. This isn’t my most confident pick of the week, but I’ll take the Cougars for a 1-score cover. PICK: BYU -2.5 

DP: Off back-to-back losses, expect Cincinnati to show up. Running back Evan Pryor is expected to return to the lineup after missing the last 2 games. He’ll make a difference. PICK: Cincinnati +3 

AS: Brendan Soresby is fun to watch. BYU has flirted with disaster on a few occasions this year. Even if BYU does end up winning this game, it’ll be by 1 or 2 points, maybe even in overtime. PICK: Cincinnati +2.5 

ES: Cincinnati just fumbled any shot it had of legitimately competing for anything with losses to Utah and Arizona across the past few weeks. I like the Cougars to roll here. PICK: BYU -2.5