It all comes down to this. Conference championship matchups will be set. The College Football Playoff bracket will be shaped. But, maybe most importantly, bitter rivalry feuds will be fought.
It’s Week 14, otherwise known as Rivalry Week across college football, and the Saturday Down South staff is back to give their ATS picks for the top games.
Let’s dive in.
(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 14 college football picks
Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 14. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.
Ole Miss at Mississippi State
Spenser Davis: People have been talking about fading Ole Miss because of the Lane Kiffin situation for 2 weeks now. The effects of this are way overblown, in my opinion. This line should be closer to double digits. I’ll happily take the value on the Rebels. PICK: Ole Miss -7
Andy Olson: I get that crazy things happen in the Egg Bowl and Lane Kiffin might be a bit distracted, but I’m not sure there’s much to worry about for Ole Miss here. Mississippi State has the worst rushing defense in the SEC. The Rebels have Kewan Lacy. This shouldn’t be close. PICK: Ole Miss -7
Derek Peterson: I’m all over Mississippi State here. Yes, the Rebels have had 2 weeks to prepare. Maybe the Kiffin stuff is overblown, but usually the obvious here is what plays out. I’ve seen enough of these situations to know it’s just hard for a team to block out the noise and lock in. Plus, I project this to be closer in part because I think Mississippi State is pretty decent. If the Bulldogs take the plunge and make the change at quarterback, they’re live to win outright. PICK: Mississippi State +7.5
Adam Spencer: Even if Lane Kiffin is distracted, the Rebels have too much talent. All they have to do is give the ball to Kewan Lacy 30 times and let him run for 300 yards against this Mississippi State defense like Ahmad Hardy did. PICK: Ole Miss -7
Ethan Stone: I agree with my colleagues. The Rebels should be able to score pretty much whenever they want, and while the Bulldogs have no doubt been waiting for this one, I don’t think this will ever be close. PICK: Ole Miss -7
Iowa at Nebraska
SD: Nebraska does not want to throw it much with Dylan Raiola out for the year. It’s usually hard to win games that way in 2025, but you can do it against Iowa if you play good defense. The Hawkeyes have had 4 of their last 5 games decided by less than a touchdown. With the Huskers at home, I think they’ll keep it close. PICK: Nebraska +6
AO: Nebraska will surely play better than it did against Penn State, but I feel like I’ve been burned whenever I doubt Iowa. PICK: Iowa -5.5
DP: I don’t think this will be 2016/2017-era Iowa domination, but I do think the trend of 1-score games between these 2 teams can break this year. Nebraska cannot stop the run to save its life and without quarterback Dylan Raiola, the offense has become extremely one-dimensional. TJ Lateef threw 7 times for 7 yards against USC when he came in for Raiola initially, and he averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt with a 57% completion rate against Penn State a week ago. Hawkeyes control the line, control the game. PICK: Iowa -6
AS: Nebraska has a backup quarterback and Iowa looks really good lately. Give me the Hawkeyes to cover. PICK: Iowa -5.5
ES: Nebraska may be a little banged up, but I think this has all the makings of an ugly game. I’ll take the points. PICK: Nebraska +6
Georgia at Georgia Tech
SD: Georgia Tech gets up for this game every year. UGA is a bit overrated and will be looking ahead to the Playoff win or lose. PICK: Georgia Tech +14
AO: I’m not crazy about laying 13.5 in a rivalry game, but I expect Gunner Stockton to carve up this Georgia Tech defense. PICK: Georgia -13.5
DP: Georgia should put up a dizzying amount of points on this crumbling Georgia Tech defense. So, given the Haynes King factor, I’m taking Tech to sneak in the back door. PICK: Georgia Tech +13.5
AS: Georgia Tech’s defense is bad. Georgia’s defense hasn’t been elite this year, but the Dawgs are peaking at the right time. I’ll take Georgia to cover. PICK: Georgia -13.5
ES: I think Georgia wins this one, but Haynes King is still Haynes King and this Georgia Tech offense is really good when he’s on. I don’t think this will be a one-sided affair. PICK: Georgia Tech +14
Texas A&M at Texas
SD: I sort of expected to be on Texas this week. The Aggies will be headed into a hostile environment, and Texas is still very talented. But with the price under a field goal, I think Texas A&M will be the right side. PICK: Texas A&M -2.5
AO: Texas is a real tempting Rivalry Week home underdog, but that’s not enough to overlook the run struggles. The Longhorns just can’t get a ground attack going, and that won’t get it done against this A&M team. PICK: Texas A&M -2.5
DP: I think Mike Elko is the real deal, so I’m fairly confident A&M won’t no-show in this game, which is arguably one of the biggest games a Texas A&M ball club has played in a long, long time. A&M doesn’t need to beat Texas to get into the CFP, but A&M can send a statement by beating Texas and I think Elko will want to do that. Expect lots of points here, and I like getting the better team under a key number. I trust the Aggies more. PICK: Texas A&M -2.5
AS: This week, I’m just going with the strategy of picking the top-tier teams to separate. Texas A&M is on a different level than Texas this year. Even in Austin, winning by a field goal should be doable for the Aggies. PICK: Texas A&M -2.5
ES: I really struggled with this one, which makes me lean Texas A&M. The Aggies have just found ways to win this season, and this is a favorable line. I wouldn’t feel great about this pick either way. PICK: Texas A&M -2.5
Arizona at Arizona State
SD: Arizona State smoked a really bad Colorado team last week, which might be why the price on Arizona is so good here. I’m happy to fade Jeff Sims in this spot. PICK: Arizona –1.5
AO: Arizona State with the points at home in a rivalry game? Dilly dilly. PICK: Arizona State +1.5
DP: The Territorial Cup is one of the best rivalries in the sport. Just in the last 5 meetings, we’ve had a 70-7 win, a 59-23 win the other way, and then a 49-7 return beatdown. The Sun Devils have been doleing out batterings of the Wildcats in recent years, which has amped up the animosity factor to another level. This Arizona team is legit, and I think the defense could carry the day. The turnover issues in Jeff Sims’s game persist; he has 2 picks and 3 lost fumbles in his last 3 games for ASU. Only 5 FBS defenses have gotten their hands on more pass attempts this season than Arizona. PICK: Arizona -1.5
AS: Yeah, I think the wrong team is favored. Arizona State at home. This is going to be a close game, but I’ll take the 2 points happily. PICK: Arizona State +2
ES: Arizona State gets the points at home here? Uhhhhh. PICK: Arizona State +2
Ohio State at Michigan
SD: I fully expect Ohio State to win outright, but I think the Wolverines will keep this within double digits. Michigan is a good team and Bryce Underwood is entering this game with a ton of confidence. Plus, Ohio State might not have Jeremiah Smith or Carnell Tate available for this matchup. I don’t see an Ohio State blowout on the road. PICK: Michigan +10.5
AO: This really should be the year Ohio State snaps the streak in The Game. OSU’s defense is so strong, the offense shouldn’t have to do too much, though it’s obviously plenty capable. Granted last year’s result really didn’t make sense, I’m rolling with the Buckeyes. PICK: Ohio State -10
DP: Perfect storm spot for Michigan. The Wolverines already know they have a psychological edge in this matchup, and they’re entering the game riding a 5-game winning streak. Ohio State hasn’t played a serious team since Illinois, and the Ryan Day factor is a thing that just has to be considered. PICK: Michigan +10.5
AS: This Ohio State team is different. Last year’s team won the national title, yes, but this year’s Buckeyes are even better. I think they finally get over the hump and take down Michigan in convincing fashion. PICK: Ohio State -9.5
ES: Before I looked at this spread, I told myself I would be picking Michigan no matter what if the spread was double digits. Given that Michigan has been a thorn in Ryan Day’s side, I’m confident in this one. PICK: Michigan +10.5
Miami at Pitt
SD: Miami punched in a touchdown late against Virginia Tech last week in an effort to gain some style points. With a line under 7, that might not be as impactful this week, but it tells me everything I need to know about where Miami’s mindset is going into this week. I think the Hurricanes take care of business against a true freshman QB and make a loud statement for the committee to consider. PICK: Miami -6.5
AO: The Pitt defense is second in the ACC in interceptions with 14 and has taken a conference-leading 4 of those back for touchdowns. Enter Carson Beck. We might not be talking about Notre Dame vs. Miami after this weekend. PICK: Pitt +7
DP: No clue what to make of Pitt right now, but I know I don’t trust Carson Beck. PICK: Pitt +7
AS: I’ll just take Pitt with the hook. Miami should probably win this, but we all know what happens to the Hurricanes when they’re supposed to win. PICK: Pitt +7.5
ES: Pitt has demolished good defenses with its passing game, but the Hurricanes boast the best secondary the Panthers have seen all year. This feels like it’ll be a close game, but I think the Hurricanes will barely cover the spread. PICK: Miami -6.5
Clemson at South Carolina
SD: I’ll still take them, but I don’t think I need these 3 points. Clemson wins outright on Saturday. PICK: Clemson +3
AO: I’m kind of surprised by this line based on what both teams have done this year. Shane Beamer is talking a lot about next year already. I’ll gladly take Clemson with the points. PICK: Clemson +3
DP: Ah, two of the most disappointing teams in all of college football this season. Clemson is 4-7 ATS this fall, though 2 of those ATS victories have come in the last 3 weeks with outright wins over Florida State and Louisville. South Carolina has 6-5 ATS on the year, covering 3 of its last 4. I think the South Carolina run of form is more real. Florida State and Louisville both stink. PICK: South Carolina -2.5
AS: I’m with Spenser on this one. I think the Tigers win in Columbia outright. PICK: Clemson +3
ES: The Gamecocks are at home and always bring it against Clemson. Admittedly, I’d feel better if USC had the points, but I’ll roll with the home team here. PICK: South Carolina -2.5
Vanderbilt at Tennessee
SD: I’ve been torn on what to do with this game all week. Vanderbilt is legit and I’ve had my issues with the Vols this year. But Neyland Stadium is a powerful homefield advantage and I think I trust Tennessee’s wide receivers to be the difference-making unit in this game. PICK: Tennessee -2.5
AO: In Diego Pavia, I trust. He was terrible in this game last year and has long had it circled. You don’t get to play Florida every week, Tennessee. Commodores keep this one close. PICK: Vanderbilt +3
DP: Dores as the dogs, one final time. PICK: Vanderbilt +3.5
AS: I think Diego Pavia does enough to at least earn himself an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony and the Commodores keep their Playoff hopes alive. PICK: Vanderbilt +3.5
ES: I’ve been calling for a Vanderbilt win here for a long time, and that’s not gonna change now. The Vols have yet to beat a competent team this season, and Pavia wants this one after whiffing against Alabama. PICK: Vanderbilt +3
Alabama at Auburn
SD: No one really noticed because Alabama turned the ball over 3 times, but the Crimson Tide moved the ball really well on Oklahoma a couple weeks ago. Frankly, I can’t believe this line is under a touchdown. PICK: Alabama -5.5
AO: It’s no secret that Alabama hasn’t been a dominant road team under Kalen DeBoer. I don’t know how much I buy into Auburn voodoo or Jordan-Hare being haunted, but AU will definitely get a boost being the home team. This feels like a dangerous spot to have concerns in the run game (against real teams, not Eastern Illinois). PICK: Auburn +6.5
DP: I’m on Auburn this week. The Crimson Tide can’t run the football and Ty Simpson has repeatedly made mistakes in late-game moments that tighten games. Not to say Simpson isn’t clutch. He has delivered in “need to have it” spots for the Tide, but they’ve been in those spots, in part, because of their own errors. Inside Jordan-Hare at night, Auburn should have enough juice. PICK: Auburn +6.5
AS: I think this game will be tight going into halftime. It’ll have Jordan-Hare in a frenzy and have Alabama fans everywhere sending mean tweets about Kalen DeBoer. Then the Tide will pull away in the second half. PICK: Alabama -5.5
ES: Anything can happen at the Iron Bowl, but there are too many eyeballs on this one for Alabama to lose. The Tide won big games against Georgia and Tennessee already this season. Kalen DeBoer does a good job getting his teams ready for games like this, and I like the Tide by a touchdown. PICK: Alabama -5.5
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
