The Saturday Down South staff returns for another week to give their ATS picks for some of the top college football games.
Let’s dive in.
(Editor’s note: All odds for this piece might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 9 college football picks
Here’s how the crew picked 10 of the biggest games in Week 9. If you want to bet alongside the guys, check out our guide on the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus at your shop of choice.
No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma
Spenser Davis: I don’t fully trust Oklahoma’s offense to take advantage of Ole Miss’s obvious weaknesses on defense. And while OU’s defense is elite, it was good last year too but that didn’t stop Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss team from clearing 6 yards per play against the Sooners in Oxford. There’s also the potential for bad weather in Norman this weekend, which could lead to a tighter game. PICK: Ole Miss +5.5
Andy Olson: I think college football’s favorite social media poster might be a bit distracted heading into this game. That said, even if Oklahoma wins, I think Ole Miss has too much offensive firepower to lose by more than 5 points. PICK: Ole Miss +5.5
Derek Peterson: Ole Miss went from 5 to 8 in the AP poll after failing to stop Georgia a single time last weekend. I don’t think we’re properly reacting to the level of defense being played over there right now. This team gave up 23 to Kentucky. OU’s defense will be the best Ole Miss has faced this season, and Trinidad Chambliss looked shaky on the road last week. I like the Sooners here. PICK: Oklahoma -4.5
Adam Spencer: I’m taking the points. I think this will be a close game in Norman. Ole Miss struggled defensively against Georgia last week, but let’s not put Oklahoma’s offense in the same tier as Georgia’s. A steady diet of Kewan Lacy helps shorten this game and it ends within a field goal either way. PICK: Ole Miss +5.5
Ethan Stone: Oklahoma’s defense, combined with Ole Miss’s defensive performance last week against Georgia, makes me think the Rebels will have some trouble with this one. PICK: Oklahoma -5.5
No. 16 Virginia at North Carolina
SD: North Carolina showed some fight against Cal last week and ended up covering a number that looked too big. But I think we get a really strong effort from a Virginia team that almost lost to Washington State last week. PICK: Virginia -10.5
AO: UNC could be playing a Virginia high school team and I still wouldn’t take the Tar Heels. PICK: Virginia -10.5
DP: For all its flaws, North Carolina is still a brand name in the ACC, and that gives Virginia an opportunity to validate its start. (To a degree.) North Carolina sucks. I generally try to be more measured, but let’s be real. Against all FBS competition this season, they’ve underperformed expectations by 50 points. With no evidence of a semi-competent defense residing in Chapel Hill, I think UVa rolls. PICK: Virginia -10.5
AS: UNC is a mess. Virginia is one of the surprises of the season. Pablo Torre might have plenty more to talk about with regard to Bill Belichick after another bad loss for the Tar Heels. PICK: Virginia -10.5
ES: I am not picking North Carolina anymore this season. PICK: Virginia -10.5
No. 18 South Florida at Memphis
SD: I have no problem backing Memphis even after its shocking loss to UAB last weekend. I think the Tigers probably got caught looking ahead and I don’t see much evidence that USF is nearly a touchdown better than Memphis. Brendon Lewis’s injury status is a concern, but I’ll take the Tigers at this number even if he can’t go. PICK: Memphis +6
AO: USF has been an offensive juggernaut in conference play. I don’t have the strongest confidence with how much the Bulls win by, but I have a better feeling about them covering than the Tigers. PICK: South Florida -6
DP: I got Memphis at a tighter number earlier in the week and I think I’m OK with that. South Florida’s recent form has been impeccable, but Memphis now finds its season very much on the brink at home. I think that matters here. PICK: Memphis +4
AS: The question here is whether Memphis will be angry after an embarrassing loss to UAB or whether it will be shell-shocked and let one loss turn into 2. I’m predicting the latter. Give me USF to continue a march toward the College Football Playoff. PICK: South Florida -5.5
ES: South Florida walked into the Swamp and beat Florida. I can promise they aren’t afraid of the Memphis crowd here. Memphis also struggled against a good UAB offense last week, and South Florida’s offense is the best in the G5. Love the Bulls here. PICK: South Florida -5.5
No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina
SD: I think if Alabama was going to lay another egg, it would have come last week against Tennessee or the week before on the road against Mizzou. Backing Alabama on the road as a double-digit favorite under Kalen DeBoer is a bit of a dangerous game, but I just don’t think this South Carolina team has the juice to keep this within 2 scores. PICK: Alabama -11
AO: It would make for one heck of a story if Mike Shula figures out the offense this week and spoils Alabama’s season, but I don’t see it happening. The Tide have been rolling ever since that fluky loss in Week 1, and I expect things only get more miserable for the Gamecocks. PICK: Alabama -11
DP: Which is a more powerful predictive charm? Kalen DeBoer’s unstoppable black hoodie? Or the unsolvable enigma that is the unranked road underdog vs. Alabama? In all seriousness, I think it would take some serious voodoo for South Carolina to pull something here. The offense is broken to a remarkable degree. Alabama is rolling, and capable of winning in a ton of ways. PICK: Alabama -11.5
AS: These are the games that Kalen DeBoer loses. He has an absolutely incredible record against ranked teams. It’s road games against unranked foes that have given him trouble the past 2 years. I think South Carolina’s defense does enough to keep this game uncomfortably close, even though I do think the Tide manage to win outright. PICK: South Carolina +12
ES: I grappled with this one because we’re nearing the end of the season, and this one is in Columbia. It’s time for South Carolina to inexplicably become the best football team on the planet, right? Right after a big Alabama win over Tennessee, too. On the other hand, the Gamecocks appear to have completely given up and looked awful against both teams of consequence they played at home earlier this season. No late-season surge this time, SC. PICK: Alabama -11.5
No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt
SD: Back-to-back road games for Mizzou after playing its first 6 contests of the year in Columbia. Vandy’s biggest weakness is its secondary and Mizzou doesn’t have a downfield passing attack to make the Commodores pay. I like this matchup and spot for Diego Pavia and Co. PICK: Vanderbilt -2.5
AO: I doubted Vanderbilt as being for real much of this season. I know I’m late to the party, but after the LSU game, I’m sold on Diego Pavia and this season’s Commodores. Mizzou should keep this close, but I’ll take Vandy by a field goal at home. PICK: Vanderbilt -2.5
DP: I think points will be tough to come by for both squads, but with the Vandy number still sitting under the key number of 3, I’m rolling with the Commodores at home. PICK: Vanderbilt -2.5
AS: Can we give Diego Pavia the Heisman Trophy now? The guy is incredible, and I don’t think there’s a team in the world that can stop him now. Vanderbilt is a Playoff team, and Clark Lea should be getting more Coach of the Year hype (darn you, Curt Cignetti). Vanderbilt absolutely rolls in this one. PICK: Vanderbilt -2.5
ES: Mizzou had serious trouble stopping Ty Simpson in their lone loss earlier this year, and Diego Pavia can be equally as much of a pest in that regard. This one is essentially a tossup, so give me the home team to keep this incredible season going. PICK: Vanderbilt -2.5
No. 11 BYU at Iowa State
SD: I don’t love this Iowa State team, but this is a perfect spot to sell high on BYU. The Cougars are coming off of a rivalry win over Utah and have a potential top-25 matchup with Texas Tech on deck (after an open date in Week 10). Iowa State is off a bye and is 9-6 against the spread in the Matt Campbell era when coming off of extra rest. PICK: Iowa State -2.5
AO: Considering homefield advantage, this matchup is in toss-up territory. I’ve been impressed by the Cougars and will take them with the points on the road. PICK: BYU +2.5
DP: I’d like a word with the joker who keeps making us pick BYU games. I haven’t known what to make of the Cougars for 2 years now. But when you have an unbeaten, top-15 team that is an underdog on the road to an unranked squad, there’s a reason for it. Iowa State was on the other side of this earlier this season against Cincy. Consider this Episode II: Attack of the ‘Clones. PICK: Iowa State -2.5
AS: Bear Bachmeier, LJ Martin, and company won me over with the showing against Utah in the Holy War. Iowa State is a tough place to play, but the Cougars don’t even need to win to cover. I think the wrong team is favored here, so I’ll take the points. PICK: BYU +2.5
ES: BYU does nothing but win close games. They’re 3-0 in one-score games this season. Seeing the line calls for a close game, I’m picking the Cougars. PICK: BYU +2.5
No. 23 Illinois at Washington
SD: I like Illinois a lot this week. Washington hasn’t played well against a competitive team in several weeks. The Fighting Illini are tougher and should be able to go into Seattle and keep this within a field goal. PICK: Illinois +4.5
AO: I was a little disappointed Washington didn’t come close to covering against Michigan. UW will be better back in Husky Stadium, but I think this one gets decided by a field goal. I’ll take an Illini cover. PICK: Illinois +4.5
DP: Legacy Big Ten teams coming across the country to face Washington in Seattle are 1-3 ATS the last two years. Ohio State is the only team to cover its respective number. Illinois also got creamed the last time it visited the PNW. The Illini haven’t seen a quarterback like Demond Williams Jr. yet this season. I’m happy to go Sailgating in Seattle and sit on my island here. PICK: Washington -3.5
AS: I do like this Washington team. The Huskies should probably be toward the end of the top 25, not unranked. Yes, Illinois has been blown out by Ohio State and Indiana, but I mean, look at what those teams are doing this year. Illinois is a tier below the Buckeyes and Hoosiers, but probably a tier above Washington. PICK: Illinois +4.5
ES: Illinois is undefeated against teams not currently in the AP Top 2. Washington, on the other hand, has yet to score 10 points when I bet on them this season. PICK: Illinois +4
No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State
SD: Texas is pretty bad, that goes without saying. But this number seems pretty short to me, considering Texas’s defense is still really good. Mississippi State has been surviving on Blake Shapen deep balls and explosive runs from Fluff Bothwell. I think Texas will shut down the Mississippi State passing game and Bothwell is questionable due to injury. PICK: Texas –7
AO: I have no faith in Arch Manning and this Texas offense against a Mississippi State team that is sure to give an inspired effort at home with the cowbells going. I’m not quite there on picking the upset outright, but I’m all over MSU to cover. PICK: Mississippi State +7.5
DP: I agree with Spenser’s assessment. The Texas defense against the Mississippi State offense tips this game. PICK: Texas -6.5
AS: I think Texas wins this game, but the Longhorns are just a frustrating team to watch right now. The offense is what it is at this point. We’re more than halfway through the season. Why are we still waiting for Arch Manning to look like a Heisman Trophy contender? This will look a lot like the Kentucky game last week, but like last week, the Longhorns’ defense will ensure that Texas is ahead on the scoreboard when all is said and done. PICK: Mississippi State +7.5
ES: Texas has looked absolutely terrible on the road this season, and Mississippi State is still looking to end their SEC win streak, and, alternatively, have looked great at home this year. Who knows if they’ll end that streak, but MSU can definitely cover this spread. PICK: Mississippi State +7.5
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU
SD: I do think this will be a close game, despite the fact that these programs appear to be heading in opposite directions. LSU will be playing desperate. But Texas A&M is just better, healthier, and more disciplined. I think the Aggies cover. PICK: Texas A&M -2.5
AO: Death Valley at night is one of the most popular spots to pick an upset, or at least a failure to cover. It’s tempting, but I can’t quite pull the trigger. This A&M team has won a lot of different ways. Something’s been off with LSU all year, and I don’t see that changing in Week 9. PICK: Texas A&M -2.5
DP: LSU cannot run the football and it’ll be starting a true freshman at left tackle against one of the best pass-rushing units in the country. It’s going to be a long, stressful night for Garrett Nussmeier. PICK: Texas A&M -2.5
AS: Texas A&M hasn’t quite put everything together all at once. When the defense struggles, the offense puts up points. When the offense struggles, the defense picks up the slack. That’s a good thing to have, and it’s led to a 7-0 record. But LSU is a tough place to play. The Death Valley atmosphere is going to be intense. Give me the Bayou Bengals to at least cover. PICK: LSU +2.5
ES: One of these teams can regularly run the football and the other cannot. PICK: Texas A&M -2.5
No. 25 Michigan at Michigan State
SD: It’s just too many points. PICK: Michigan State +14.5
AO: I’d like to take a double-digit home underdog in a rivalry game, but this Michigan State defense is playing too poorly to pick the Spartans. I’m not crazy about laying this many points, but I’ll take Michigan for another cover. PICK: Michigan -14
DP: Michigan State is horrible. Like, truly, truly horrible. Michigan ranks 14th in adjusted net EPA per play this season, according to Game on Paper. Michigan State is 114th — worse than the directional Michigan schools. Bryce Young has made mistakes this season, but he has also abused bad defenses. This might be the worst defense he’s seen yet. PICK: Michigan -13.5
AS: I agree with Spenser. I’d probably take Michigan –13.5, but 14.5 is a point too rich for my liking. The Spartans hang close and keep things within 2 scores of the Wolverines at home. PICK: Michigan State +14.5
ES: I think Michigan wins this one, but I like the Spartans to cover a rivalry game. They’ll have a little more juice in this one and return home after being on the road for 3 of their first 4 Big Ten games. PICK: Michigan State +14.5
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
