The Saturday Football crew is back for another week to provide picks against the spread for 10 of the biggest games in college football.
Here’s how things stand after four weeks:
- Ethan Stone: 23-17
- Spenser Davis: 22-18
- Derek Peterson: 19–21
- Paul Harvey: 18–22
Let’s dive in.
No. 10 Utah at No. 19 Oregon State (-3.5)
Spenser Davis: Utah has an elite defense, but its offense has been steadily getting worse without Cam Rising in the lineup. I’m betting this is the week where the dam breaks. PICK: Oregon State
Paul Harvey: Oregon State suffered a wakeup call loss in Week 4 against Washington State, and it’s possible Utah experienced its wakeup call despite a win over UCLA. The defense of the Utes will travel, but what’s the deal with Cam Rising? I don’t believe Utah can keep this trend going without Rising in the lineup, so give me the Beavers. PICK: Oregon State
Derek Peterson: We’ve got two games of Good DJ U and two games of Not Good DJ U. Whoever shows up in this one will have a huge hand in the outcome. Oregon State needs Uiagalelei to be a difference-maker against a defense that might just be one of the best in the country. I don’t think UCLA’s defense is getting enough credit for what it did a week ago against the Utes, and I don’t think Oregon State’s defense is quite as good. PICK: Utah
Ethan Stone: This is an impossible game to pick for me specifically. Not only do I just not have much of a read on Utah this year, but Cam Rising’s questionable nature (he… is going to play this season at some point, right?) makes it that much tougher. Utah has skirted fate long enough without Rising, I’m not sure the Beavers will lose this one at home if he doesn’t go. PICK: Oregon State
No. 8 USC (-21.5) at Colorado
SD: I have almost no faith in Colorado’s defense to stop USC. And yet, I’m going with the Buffs here. I think this line is probably an overreaction to Colorado’s very public failure last week in Eugene. But this game is at home, and Lincoln Riley has not been good historically when asked to cover 21+ points vs. conference opponents. His record at USC against the spread is 2-3. At Oklahoma, he was 6-10 in that spot as a head coach. PICK: Colorado
PH: Colorado will probably score more this week than the Buffs did against Oregon, but I don’t believe they have an answer for Caleb Williams. Simple as that. PICK: USC
DP: Two things. First, USC is among the country’s very best at creating tackles for loss and sacks while Colorado is among the country’s five worst teams at allowing such plays. Second, USC is No. 2 nationally in rushing yards per carry. Can you guess No. 1? It’s Oregon. I see no reason why USC can’t do exactly what Oregon just did to this Colorado team. What happened in Eugene didn’t happen because it was played in Eugene, so I don’t think this game being in Boulder means much. PICK: USC
ES: Yeah, sorry Colorado. I don’t trust the Buffs without Travis Hunter and even if I did, I’m mad at Colorado for forsaking me last week. Williams will have a field day Saturday against a Colorado defense that simply laid down for the Ducks last Saturday. PICK: USC
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No. 22 Florida at Kentucky (-1)
SD: I picked against Florida against Tennessee, and that was clearly a mistake in hindsight. But that game was in Gainesville. I’ll take the Wildcats in Lexington. PICK: Kentucky
PH: Florida has already burned me this season, but Kentucky has won 3 of the last 5 in this series. With another tossup on deck, I’ll take Mark Stoops and company at home. PICK: Kentucky
DP: Give me Kentucky at home. I think a mistake from the Gator offense is the difference in a battle of two pretty good defenses. PICK: Kentucky
ES: Kentucky may have the best run defense in the SEC, but their best competition to this point has been Vanderbilt. I can’t trust that in the slightest. I’ll usually roll with the home team here in a pick ‘em situation, but I’m gonna put faith in the Gators to take care of business Saturday. PICK: Florida
Clemson (-6.5) at Syracuse
SD: Since 2017 (Dino Babers’ 2nd season at Syracuse), the Orange are 1-5 straight up and 5-1 against the spread vs. Clemson. With that being said, I think this is a bad spot for Syracuse to catch the Tigers. Clemson is the more talented team and will be desperate to pick up an ACC win this weekend. Fair or not, I’d expect Clemson to take some of its frustrations out on the Orange. PICK: Clemson
PH: It’s hard to get a read on Clemson, but to hear Dabo Swinney tell it, this group is comparable to the 2016 title squad. I’m not buying that, but I will buy the Tigers to win by at least a touchdown against Syracuse. PICK: Clemson
DP: I still think Clemson has been unfortunate with some of its mistakes this season (seven fumbles, five lost, all in horrible spots). This week will probably tell us whether that misfortune will continue throughout the year or start to course-correct. The Tigers are still a top-20 team in SP+, balanced offensively and defensively in terms of efficiency. I will stump for Dabo Swinney one more time at the risk of getting burned. PICK: Clemson
ES: I do not think Clemson is a bad football team. The Tigers are not up to par with what they were a few years ago, but even on the road the Tigers should be able to deliver one less undefeated team in the ACC. PICK: Clemson
No. 24 Kansas at No. 3 Texas (-16.5)
SD: Kansas has struggled a bit the last couple weeks with really bad teams — Nevada and BYU. Its win over Illinois from earlier this season isn’t looking as good, either. I think Texas will take care of business here at home. PICK: Texas
PH: Maybe I’m just used to the “Texas is (not) back” era to fully buy into this line. I think the Longhorns win, and they probably win by double digits/ But for as much as Texas might be back, this is not the Kansas football program of old. PICK: Kansas
DP: Sadly, no “Texas lost to Kansas in football” jokes to be had this year. PICK: Texas
ES: Do we remember last season when Kansas started 5-0 then finished the year 6-7? Yes, I know Jalon Daniels was hurt to end the year, but that’s just what happens when the Jayhawks started matching up with the best of the Big 12. I believe a similar cycle will start this week against the Longhorns. Texas by 20. PICK: Texas
No. 2 Michigan (-17) at Nebraska
SD: Michigan is winless against the spread so far this season. In fact, the Wolverines are missing the number by more than 8 points on average. I’m not backing them as a 2-touchdown favorite on the road until that changes. I think Michigan wins, but remains in cruise control. PICK: Nebraska
PH: Jim Harbaugh has the rest of the country right where he wants them, doubting Michigan and his ground-and-pound program after some sluggish starts early in the season. Nebraska’s run defense has been a bright spot, but this matchup isn’t like the rest to start the season. PICK: Michigan
DP: This is my Pat McAfee moment — my blind faith, play to the crowd pick. Nebraska is No. 2 nationally in run defense, allowing just 1.8 yards a carry through four games. The Huskers get a signature defensive performance. I believe in Heinrich Haarberg. Nebraska parties like it’s 1997. PICK: Nebraska
ES: Call me crazy all you want, but Nebraska might be able to make some noise here. Michigan is playing its first road game of the season heading into a raucous environment. Heinrich Haarberg is physical at QB and has won 2 straight, albeit against bad opponents. In my opinion, Satterfield should continue rolling with him until he slips up. This is going to be my bold pick of the week, but I’ll take the Huskers to cover and lose by 14. PICK: Nebraska
No. 13 LSU (-2.5) at No. 20 Ole Miss
SD: LSU’s defense is going to pose a lot of the same problems for Ole Miss that Alabama did. Even in Oxford, I think LSU finds a way to win by a field goal or more. PICK: LSU
PH: This feels like a trap no matter how I pick it. LSU looks like the better team and I get Ole Miss is trying to forge a path forward after the loss to Alabama, but I’m not entirely sold on the Tigers as a road favorite. I’ll flip a coin and roll with the Lane Train. PICK: Ole Miss
DP: Riding with my Playoff pick (why did I do this?) to not suffer a second loss before the calendar changes to October. Lots of confidence here, can’t you tell? PICK: LSU
ES: I’ve had the opinion that Ole Miss should win this game for a while now, but I think I’m going to walk it back here. I just don’t love the vibe out of Oxford right now. The Rebels feel deflated after dropping again to Alabama, and the recent departure of Michael Trigg (even if he didn’t do much this year) can’t exactly be a locker room booster. Maybe I’m reading into it too much, but I’ll go with LSU on the road. PICK: LSU
No. 9 Oregon (-27) at Stanford
SD: I’m looking for any reason to not take Oregon here, but I can’t find one. This could be a lookahead spot for the Ducks, as their next game will be against Washington on the road. But Oregon is idle in Week 6, so it’s not exactly a classic lookahead spot. Oregon should win going away. PICK: Oregon
PH: I’m not sure Dan Lanning or the Ducks care too much about making a statement in this game. I’m also not sure it really matters either way. PICK: Oregon
DP: A lot of the narrative here this week has been that Stanford just finds a way and keeps it uncomfortable in this matchup. But this isn’t the same Stanford team. Well, maybe it is, at least in the sense that the defense is still broken — 6.4 yards per play, 120th nationally. The last running quarterback the Ducks faced ate them up a bit. However, I think Stanford’s “you run, I pass” system at quarterback takes away a bit of the dual-threat dilemma from a defensive perspective. Oregon looks legit, and I think the Ducks continue to roll. PICK: Oregon
ES: Oregon by 40. PICK: Oregon
No. 11 Notre Dame (-5.5) at No. 17 Duke
SD: The only real team Duke has played so far this season was Clemson. The Tigers’ offense, which is much worse than Notre Dame’s, lit up Duke to the tune of 422 yards. Clemson rushed for more than 200 yards and almost certainly would have won if not for a pair of turnovers deep in the red zone. Getting this number under a touchdown is a gift. PICK: Notre Dame
PH: This is a tough one because I think both teams are for real. Despite the late rally given up to Ohio State last week, look for the Irish defense to be the key on the road. PICK: Notre Dame
DP: GameDay in town. Night kick in front of a national TV audience. Duke has a chance to start a season 5-0 for the first time since 1994. I think the Blue Devils are going to give Notre Dame absolutely all it can handle. They have a top-five defense (Clemson ran 83 friggin’ plays to get over 400 yards), have won ugly, have won with a dominant ground game, and won big last weekend without that ground game. PICK: Duke
ES: This game will be so much fun, but here’s what I see. Duke beat up on a good, not great Clemson team in Week 1. But it’s so hard to read Week 1 in college football. Remember that Florida team that looked dreadful against Utah? They’re currently ranked. My point is, the Duke we saw in Week 1 may not be the Duke that shows up against a Notre Dame team that was about 5 inches away from being a top-five team in the country right now. I think it’ll be close, but I’ll roll with Hartman and Co. PICK: Notre Dame
South Carolina at No. 21 Tennessee (-12)
SD: I’m selling South Carolina in this spot. The Gamecocks’ best performance this season, by far, was a 10-point loss to a Georgia team that hasn’t had to get out of neutral yet in 2023. The offensive line is bad and I’m not sure the defense is going to travel. Oh, and I’m sure the Vols would love to run it up on South Carolina after what happened last November. PICK: Tennessee
PH: South Carolina looked competitive in a hard-fought loss to Georgia a few weeks ago. That game was even in Athens, so I’m not sure Knoxville is going to scare the Gamecocks. Ultimately, 12 points is just a bit too rich for me considering how the Vols have looked week to week. PICK: South Carolina
DP: I like Spencer Rattler — 12th in QBR, 13th in EPA — to make things super uncomfy for a Tennessee team at home that hasn’t looked great against a pedestrian crop of quarterbacks. PICK: South Carolina
ES: Give me South Carolina to cover here every single day of every single week. I don’t trust this Tennessee team at all right now. South Carolina has played everyone tough and Spencer Rattler continues to improve while Tennessee’s secondary continues to falter. I think the Vols will come out with more fire this time around compared to last season, but I personally don’t see a blowout here. PICK: South Carolina
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
