Friday Forecast: SDS Staff picks 5 Week 11 matchups against the spread
By Ethan Stone
Published:
Just 3 weeks remain in the regular season, and the latest CFP rankings would have 5 SEC teams in the Playoff if the season ended today.
Will that number change this week? For Saturday’s slate the SDS staff picked games featuring 3 current SEC Playoff teams, plus some massive Big 12 and ACC matchups in Tucson and Dallas. That still sounds strange, huh?
Let’s jump right in.
(All odds are via DraftKings, finalized on Thursday, November 12. Point spreads might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 11 Picks ATS
Here’s how the SDS crew picked 5 college football games in Week 11 (against the spread). A note: Spenser Davis will be back for the College Football Playoff.
Want to make some picks with the SDS crew? Think some of us are just flat out wrong? Take a look at our guide of the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus ahead of Week 11.
2026 Season Records
- Spenser Davis: 26-27
- Andy Olson: 21-32
- Adam Spencer: 26-27
- Ethan Stone: 35-18
Mizzou at Georgia (-15.5)
Andy Olson: You’d say most teams are due for a bit of a letdown after Georgia’s last two wins. Kirby Smart, though, won’t let that happen at home for UGA after the Auburn loss (which gets weirder by the week). PICK: Georgia -15.5
Adam Spencer: As a Mizzou grad, I’m offended by this line. Making the spread 15.5 points is confusing and disrespectful. Make it 14.5 points if you think Georgia will win by 2+ touchdowns. Make it 16.5 if you think Georgia will win by 2+ possessions. Give me my Tigers to fight hard and cover valiantly. PICK: Mizzou +15.5
Ethan Stone: This feels like a spread that will be decided in the final minutes. Georgia’s been fantastic against the run this season, and Mizzou has struggled to run the ball in big games. Not great on paper for the Tigers. That said, this is Mizzou’s last chance. If the Tigers beat Georgia, Kentucky and Oklahoma they’ll at least be under consideration for a spot in the Playoff. Considering that and the generous spread, I’ll lean Mizzou to at least put up a fight. PICK: Mizzou +15.5
Utah (-2.5) at Arizona
Andy Olson: As impressive as Utah has been, I can’t pass up Arizona getting points at home. The Wildcats have been strong at home, and they have a great run defense. PICK: Arizona +2.5
Adam Spencer: As impressive as Arizona has been, I can’t pass up Utah under a field goal on the road. The Utes have been strong away from home, and they have a great run offense. PICK: Utah -2.5
Ethan Stone: It was a scary sight when Texas Tech’s offensive line strangled Arizona’s defensive front on Halloween. The Red Raiders rushed for 328 yards and 2 touchdowns. Utah’s offensive line is arguably the best in the Big 12 and its rushing offense is averaging the 12th most yards per game in the country. Don’t think the Wildcats are built to win this one. PICK: Utah -2.5
Texas at LSU (-4)
Andy Olson: Arch Manning is downplaying that facing LSU is personal for him, but let’s be real, playing in Tiger Stadium is a big deal for a New Orleans native. Manning got the W against his uncles’ teams (Tennessee, Ole Miss), and I like him to show up in his Louisiana homecoming. PICK: Texas +4
Adam Spencer: Earlier this season, there was a confusing spread where South Carolina was favored at home against a Tennessee squad that had just blown out Alabama. It was a classic “Vegas knows something I don’t” game. I took South Carolina (I believe I was the only staff member to do so) and it, of course, won. This feels like something similar. My heart says Texas wins, but this line is so shocking to me I have to go with LSU here to fade myself. PICK: LSU -4
Ethan Stone: Let’s see if Adam can do it again. Texas feels locked in right now. The Longhorns have played well on the road this season and Sam Leavitt hasn’t proved to be a clutch quarterback through 10 weeks. PICK: Texas +4
Wake Forest at SMU (-1.5)
Andy Olson: I think Wake’s strong ground game and stingy defense will show up on the road. PICK: Wake Forest +1.5
Adam Spencer: The vibes are good at Wake Forest right now after the Demon Deacons signed a deal to bring coach Jake Dickert back. Great move. Give me Wake Forest to take another step toward the ACC Championship Game. PICK: Wake Forest +1.5
Ethan Stone: This is a hugely important game for Wake Forest. I don’t think the Demon Deacons will fall on their face, and they’ve played well on the road so far. Sorry, graphic. PICK: Wake Forest 1.5
Florida at Kentucky (-3.5)
Andy Olson: Florida is down bad right now. Apparently, the offense is unable to score without Vernell Brown III, and he’s out again. Kentucky has dominated the series with Florida in recent years, and that should continue Saturday night. PICK: Kentucky -3.5
Adam Spencer: I also like Kentucky in this bounce-back spot. The Wildcats got embarrassed by a great defense at Tennessee. Now they return home against a Florida defense that no one would describe as great. Kentucky gets back on track with a comfortable win. PICK: Kentucky -3.5
Ethan Stone: Facing Florida’s defense at Kroger Field the week after battling Tennessee’s in Neyland Stadium is exactly what the doctor ordered for Will Stein‘s Wildcats. Florida is playing gross football right now. Can’t take the Gators in this spot. PICK: Kentucky -3.5
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Ethan Stone is a Saturday Down South News Editor and an advocate for the return of the Seattle Supersonics.
