Friday Forecast: SDS Staff picks 5 Week 5 matchups against the spread
By Ethan Stone
Published:
October is here, and while it isn’t quite as strong as last week, we’ve got some great matchups on the docket. The Game of the Week is Alabama at Mississippi State, pitting 2 of the best quarterbacks in college football against the other as MSU looks to snap a 16-game losing streak to the Crimson Tide. Elsewhere, top 25 matchups such as Florida at Mizzou and Ohio State at Iowa are sure to deliver.
Let’s make some picks, shall we?
(All odds are via DraftKings, finalized on Thursday, October 1. Point spreads might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Week 5 Picks ATS
Here’s how the SDS crew picked 5 college football games in Week 5 (against the spread).
Want to join the SDS crew and make some picks? Take a look at our guide of the best sports betting apps to score a sign-up bonus ahead of Week 5.
2026 Season Records
- Spenser Davis: 10-13
- Andy Olson: 11-12
- Adam Spencer: 9-14
- Ethan Stone: 17-6
Alabama (-5.5) at Mississippi State
Spenser Davis: I think this could be a one-score game, but with the line under 6, I like Alabama to cover. I’m not sure the market is fully crediting Keelon Russell for how good he’s been so far this season. This Alabama team — and the offense in-particular — is very young, but the Crimson Tide have been dominant in the second half of games so far this season. PICK: Alabama -5.5
Andy Olson: This Alabama offense has truly been something else, but it’s a little harder to do that with the cowbells in Starkville. There has also been some interesting discourse about Kalen DeBoer keeping the team in Tuscaloosa on Friday and traveling on Saturday despite the early kick (way to go SEC/ESPN with that preseason window assignment!). I could see Bama by a touchdown, but this feels like the Bulldogs’ best shot in a long time and it may come down to a field goal. PICK: Mississippi State +5.5
Adam Spencer: This could be a sloppy first half. Alabama has struggled in the first 2 quarters in 3 of its 4 games thus far. Mississippi State has had to come from behind in each of its SEC victories this season. But what the heck. I’m riding the Kamario Taylor train until he gives me reason to jump off. Mississippi State at least covers the 5.5 points. PICK: Mississippi State +5.5
Ethan Stone: So much about this matchup reminds me of 2022 Alabama at Tennessee, but especially Alabama’s 16-game win streak over Mississippi State. If not now, when does MSU finally reclaim a win in this series? The intensity is going to be through the roof, and we’re going to see both quarterbacks put on a show. Similar to what Adam said: how can I go against Kamario Taylor and the Bulldogs with all this momentum heading into Week 5? PICK: Mississippi State +5.5
Florida (-5.5) at Mizzou
Spenser Davis: Classic let-down spot for Florida after back-to-back emotional wins over Auburn and Ole Miss. I think the Gators win but Eli Drinkwitz has consistently found ways to beat the number in these spots. Since 2020, Mizzou is 9-4-1 ATS as a home underdog. PICK: Mizzou +5.5
Andy Olson: One thing Adam and I can agree on this week is that there’s always a Simpsons quote. Take it away, Abe.
While some traditionalists Grampa Simpson’s age may not want to recognize Mizzou as a real SEC team, the Gators need to approach Saturday just like they did their first conference road game of the year at Auburn. Memorial Stadium has been a true house of horrors for Florida. But this is a different year, a different team. I trust Jon Sumrall to have UF ready. PICK: Florida -5.5
Adam Spencer: To continue with the Simpsons theme, allow me to quote Homer Simpson, even though it may as well have been something Eli Drinkwitz said:
The Mizzou coach has never met a clock he can’t mismanage, and I’m worried that’s going to bite the Tigers yet again on Saturday. Give me the Gators to cover. PICK: Florida -5.5
Ethan Stone: Florida has Jadan Baugh and Mizzou doesn’t. Mizzou’s secondary has also been disappointing this season, so I don’t really know where the Tigers have an advantage to stop the Gators. I think Florida scores 40 for the 5th straight game to open the Jon Sumrall era and blows this spread out of the water, something around 42-24. PICK: Florida -5.5
Ohio State (-14.5) at Iowa
Spenser Davis: Michigan win aside, I don’t think Iowa is very good at all. The offense is still among the worst P4 attacks and the defense is good but far from elite. Ohio State can probably name its final score here. The Buckeyes have run it up the last couple times these teams have met in Columbus, winning those games by a combined margin of 99-17. I don’t see why this game would be much different. PICK: Ohio State -14.5
Andy Olson: I’m thinking Ohio State got most of its poor play out of its system with the epic collapse at Texas. Enjoy the 4-0 start, Hawkeyes. The fun likely stops when College GameDay wraps for the day. PICK: Ohio State -14.5
Adam Spencer: Do the Buckeyes still have Jeremiah Smith on their roster? They do? And is he healthy? He is? Give me Ohio State to win big. PICK: Ohio State -14.5
Ethan Stone: Ohio State has played 1 bad quarter of football this year. The Buckeyes have also mopped the floor with Iowa teams similar to this one, and according to this guy, Iowa is 0-7 against the spread as double-digit underdogs. PICK: Ohio State -14.5
Auburn at Tennessee (-7)
Spenser Davis: Both of these quarterbacks have been pretty disappointing to start the season. I think Faizon Brandon could still have a great career, but I’d rather have Byrum Brown and his depth of experience (this will be his 37th start in college football) in this matchup. PICK: Auburn +7
Andy Olson: Auburn isn’t Texas (this expert-level analysis is why they pay me the big medium bucks, y’all!), but I’m struggling to get over how the Tennessee offense looked last week. It might take some garbage-time scoring (like the Florida game), but the Alex Golesh factor has me liking an Auburn cover on Rocky Top. PICK: Auburn +7
Adam Spencer: Texas made life difficult on Tennessee by stopping the run. Well, against a less-than-stellar group of running backs (Florida’s Jadan Baugh aside), Auburn’s run defense has struggled in 2026. Faizon Brandon can’t function at a high level when there’s too much pressure on his shoulders. Fortunately for him, DeSean Bishop should be much better this weekend. Give me the Vols by 10. PICK: Tennessee -7
Ethan Stone: It is going to be very tough for Tennessee’s offense to look any worse than it did last week, and the Vols were still 3 points from beating the nation’s No. 1 team. I’d be kidding myself if I said the Vols’ offensive line isn’t a dumpster fire right now, but I think Tennessee is going to come out with something to prove this time around. PICK: Tennessee -7
Miami (-16.5) at Clemson
Spenser Davis: Miami is much more talented than Clemson, but I think this spread is too high. Mario Cristobal has not done a good job of covering numbers this high against ACC opponents. He’s 3-12 ATS when favored by between 7 and 21 points in conference play. PICK: Clemson +16.5
Andy Olson: As much as it pains me to praise the Miami Hurricanes, they’ve got a powerhouse down in Coral Gables. I’d describe Miami as an SEC-caliber program – as a compliment. Mario Cristobal would be quick to remind me that his team is on a winning streak against SEC teams (and he’d make sure to work in a dig at my alma mater in the process). We saw how Clemson fared against a truly stacked LSU roster. I don’t think homefield advantage will make up for the difference in talent and coaching. PICK: Miami -16.5
Adam Spencer: I’m still out on this Clemson team and the Dabo Swinney era, despite recent wins over North Carolina and Cal. Neither of those programs has a QB who has more TD passes than incompletions. Give me Darian Mensah and the Canes to dominate from the opening kickoff. PICK: Miami -16.5
Ethan Stone: I made a rule for myself last year: No more picking Clemson to cover. It’s worked out pretty well so far. PICK: Miami -16.5
Subscribe to the Saturday Football Newsletter — Get the latest news and updates on your team, your conference, and the college football nation straight to your inbox.
Having trouble seeing the signup form? Some privacy or ad-blocking tools can prevent it from loading. You can subscribe directly here.
Ethan Stone is a Saturday Down South News Editor and an advocate for the return of the Seattle Supersonics.
