Georgia will host Texas on Saturday night in a rematch of last season’s SEC Championship Game.
Both of these teams are ranked in the top-10 of the latest College Football Playoff rankings, so this game is loaded with postseason implications. Texas may need to win to keep its Playoff hopes alive while Georgia can’t afford another loss if it wants a shot at another SEC title.
Georgia vs. Texas preview
Here’s what you need to know about both of these teams:
Texas football notes
- Texas lost 3 games during the 2024-25 season — 2 of them were to Georgia. The Longhorns lost in Austin during the regular season and then again in the SEC Championship Game.
- Georgia played with Gunner Stockton under center for most of the second half of last year’s SEC title game. The Texas defense held Stockton to just 71 passing yards on 16 attempts. The Longhorns also recorded an interception.
- Texas will have a rest advantage in this game. The Longhorns are coming out of an idle week and haven’t played since their win over Vanderbilt on Nov. 1.
- Arch Manning has shown improvement in recent weeks. Over his last 2 games, he’s completed 68% of his passes and is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.
- The Texas offense has still graded out as mediocre so far this season. The Longhorns are 91st in passing success rate and 83rd in rushing success rate, per Game on Paper.
- Defensively, Texas has been among the best in the nation this season. That’s been particularly true in the run game — UT ranks 4th in EPA-per-rush allowed.
- The Texas secondary has been a bit more vulnerable this season. The Longhorns have conceded positive EPA-per-pass in 3 consecutive games against Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. The Commodores game was particularly troublesome as Diego Pavia threw for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns on 38 attempts.
- One potential reason for Texas’s struggles has been the absence of star safety Michael Taaffe, who hasn’t played since the Kentucky game. Taaffe is expected to return to the lineup against the Bulldogs.
Georgia football notes
- Georgia is coming off of perhaps its most complete game of the season. The Bulldogs beat Mississippi State 41-21 last week in Starkville.
- Gunner Stockton threw for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 attempts. For the season, Stockton is up to No. 31 nationally in passer efficiency rating and No. 30 in EPA-per-dropback (per Game on Paper).
- UGA’s rushing attack was excellent against Mississippi State and now has solid season-long numbers as well. Georgia ranks 30th in rushing success rate and 42nd in EPA-per-rush.
- The defense has been a much bigger concern for the Bulldogs, particularly up front. Even after a strong game vs. Mississippi State, Georgia still only has 11 sacks on the season (122nd nationally in sacks per game).
- The lack of disruption up front has led to an ineffective secondary. The Bulldogs are 100th nationally in EPA-per-pass allowed, according to Game on Paper.
- Per PFF, Georgia’s highest-graded defensive players are CJ Allen, defensive lineman Christen Miller and safety KJ Bolden. Linebacker Raylen Wilson leads the team in pressures (17) and hurries (14).
Georgia vs. Texas predictions
Here are 2 picks for this game:
Gunner Stockton lower than 224.5 passing yards
This projection comes from Dabble. Although the Texas pass defense has struggled in recent weeks, the return of safety Michael Taaffe should have a big impact on what the Bulldogs are able to do offensively. I don’t think Stockton will be anywhere close to the 8.5+ yards per attempt he posted in his last couple home games against Kentucky and Ole Miss. The Longhorns should be able to get some pressure this week, which could result in a more run-heavy approach for the Bulldogs. Georgia is also down one of its top receivers in Colbie Young.
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Arch Manning lower than 18.5 rushing yards
This pick comes from Underdog. Manning hasn’t come anywhere near this projection in any of his last 3 games. The Texas offensive line has struggled mightily at times this season and it should be noted that sacks count against a quarterback’s rushing total at the college level. So even if Manning gets loose for a couple of medium-sized runs, we could see his rushing yardage still go lower than 18.5 yards. Inclusive of sacks, he has 9 rushing yards on 22 attempts in his last 3 games. Even if you exclude sacks, Manning is averaging under 20 rushing yards per game over his last 3 outings.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
