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Arch Manning is the talk of college football entering the 2025 season.
After 2 seasons of nonstop attention as the Texas backup, Manning gets the keys to Steve Sarkisian’s offensive Lamborghini this year. Given what he showed in spot starts and garbage time last year, expectations are through the roof. Per the latest Heisman Trophy odds, Manning is considered the favorite. At DraftKings, he’s the favorite to go No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft. In a number of preseason quarterback rankings, Manning is a top-10 guy.
Greg McElroy isn’t quite ready to go that far yet.
“I love Arch Manning’s skillset, I love the pedigree, I love some of the tape last year. I love how he was utilized and how he’s been developed by Steve Sarkisian and the staff. I think he is poised to have an amazingly successful career,” McElroy said this week on his show, the Always College Football podcast. “Whether that’s a 1-year career, 2 years, 3 years, however long he’s in Austin — assuming he’s there his whole career — I think he’s absolutely positioned to be tremendously successful.”
But…
You know that saying? How everything before the word “but” is pointless?
McElroy did not include Manning among his top 10 quarterbacks for 2025. Instead, he has the third-year Texas man in the honorable mention category.
“It’s very hard for me to ever justify putting a first-year starter ahead of guys who have actually done it when the bullets are flying,” McElroy said. “A vast majority of his stats from last season were achieved against UTSA, … against Louisiana-Monroe, … and against Mississippi State.”
Manning threw for 939 yards and 9 touchdowns with 2 interceptions last season. He also ran for 108 yards and 4 scores. But he didn’t have to face the heavy-hitters in the SEC. The 2 defenses that knew to prepare for Manning ranked 80th (ULM) and 127th (Mississippi State) nationally in adjusted EPA per play, per Game on Paper. UTSA also ranked 57th in EPA per dropback allowed.
The 2025 season will throw Manning to the fire right away. Texas faces Ohio State on the road in Week 1. The SEC opener is on the road against Florida, and Manning will make his Red River debut a week later.
Texas has some of the most favorable odds to make the Playoff of any team in America. The Longhorns are loaded with talent. Can Manning help Texas reach its full potential?
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
