There are two ranked-on-ranked matchups in the SEC this weekend. Alabama-Mississippi State has the country’s attention, but the Florida Gators‘ trip to the Missouri Tigers can’t be overlooked, even if the two programs have drastically different perceptions through four weeks.
Entering play, Florida (4-0, 2-0 SEC) is everyone’s darling. The Gators have scored 53.5 points per game and are up to No. 8 in the country. Meanwhile, Mizzou (3-1, 0-1 SEC) is clinging to a No. 25 ranking that folks believe it doesn’t deserve. Greg McElroy thinks there’s a recipe for the Tigers to pull an upset, but them toppling Florida.
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“For Missouri, this is ‘got to have it’ mode,” McElroy said on his Always College Football podcast. “[But] I’m taking Florida to win the game, 31-24. Jon Sumrall is 36-1 when his team makes more red zone trips than the opponent… Missouri’s red zone issues [are] difficult to overcome in this game.”
McElroy believes Mizzou will have a shot to win if it can force the Gators to rely upon quarterback Aaron Philo instead of the rushing attack.
“[Jadan] Baugh against Missouri’s front, that’s the heavyweight fight… Missouri’s best unit against Florida’s best player,” McElroy said. “The biggest mismatch might actually be Missouri’s passing attack against Florida’s questionable secondary that has yet to be tested, at least in… a throw-a-thon.”
Florida has thrown the ball just 104 times this year, second-fewest in the SEC. Philo has been effective when passing, but has not had to shoulder the offensive load for the Gators yet. Until he does so, we won’t know if he’s capable or not. Florida and Missouri play at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday (ABC).
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