Hayes: Hope isn’t a plan, but it’s about all Jimbo Fisher has at this point
By Matt Hayes
Published:
Trouble is on the horizon, everyone. What could’ve been at Texas A&M could sharply arrive this weekend at what is.
Way too early.
It’s no longer about elite recruiting classes, or a controversial offensive coordinator hire, or the biggest egos in college football learning to play nice.
It’s survival now for Jimbo Fisher.
“Mature teams play well on the road,” Fisher said at his weekly press conference. “Mature teams that are confident, trust in things and believe in themselves.”
The question is, does Texas A&M still believe in Fisher?
We can talk about big-money buyouts and tens of millions of dollars until we’re maroon in the face. We can talk about injuries and player development and somebody’s gotta make a play.
We can talk about Texas and Oklahoma arriving hot into the SEC in 2024, and how the difficultly to recruit and win at an elite level will only get tougher for a coach who has proven he can do the former, and has stumbled all over himself with the latter.
The only thing that matters is Fisher and the Aggies are at a crossroads moment Saturday afternoon at Tennessee. Lose to the Vols, and 3 losses in the first 7 games — all 3 prove-it games — will continue the rapid realization that it’s not working.
Beat the Vols, and survive for another week.
“Man, our kids have character,” Fisher said. “They have heart. I think they’re going to play their tails off.”
The problem is, there’s no empirical evidence to back that up. Texas A&M has lost its past 7 true road games under Fisher, and it gets more disturbing when you analyze true crossroads games — home or away — of the past 3 seasons.
The Miami game in September was a big moment for the program, for the roll out of offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino and a deep and talented team with Playoff hopes. The Aggies lost by 15.
Alabama last week was a seminal moment in the season. Here’s where the Aggies show their potential — at home, against wounded Alabama, with the chance to take a huge step toward changing the Fisher/Texas A&M narrative.
Alabama won by 6, and Texas A&M scored 3 points in the 2nd half.
Last year, the Aggies began the season 3-1 before losing at Mississippi State — a clearly inferior (based on talent) team — by 18. Then A&M lost 5 in a row to tank the season.
In 2021, Texas A&M began the SEC season with back-to-back losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State — leaving a shocking win over Alabama all but meaningless.
How much longer do we hang onto the 2020 COVID season? How much longer do we hold firm and point to a strange and truncated season — where teams played games with diminished rosters from the pandemic — as what could be?
Instead of looking at what it is: the outlier.
How much longer do we see the product on the field, game after game, and assume Fisher — with all that talent from all those elite recruiting classes — is close to turning Texas A&M into Florida State of 2013?
I don’t want to hear about an injury to starting quarterback Conner Weigman. His backup — and “backup” is a relative term here — Max Johnson has played 4 seasons in the SEC and been part of some big games and moments.
He has a career TD/INT ratio of 45/9. If you can’t find ways to win 10 games with that quarterback (and the talent on the Texas A&M roster), it’s time to stop cashing that bi-monthly $416,666 to lose to Mississippi State and Arkansas and Ole Miss and Auburn and South Carolina.
If you can’t get a team ready to play a vulnerable and beatable Alabama team — that was struggling to throw the ball and still figuring it out offensively — in an absolute line in the sand game, why should anyone expect anything more down the road?
If Texas A&M rolls into Neyland Stadium on Saturday and drops another road game — where, again, it has the better roster — what makes anyone think this season isn’t headed toward another 7- or 8-win product?
You can bang your head against the wall all you want, desperately trying to convince yourself that things will change and it only takes 1 game to turn a season. In theory, Texas A&M can win out and those 10 wins will sure feel good — just like those 9 wins in 2020.
It’s not real, everyone. At some point, you have believe what you see.
You have to look at Texas A&M folding in nearly every game of significance under Fisher outside that funky 2020 season that almost wasn’t. Take away the 2020 outlier season, and Texas A&M is 17-18 in SEC games under Fisher.
Seventeen and eighteen.
We’re 6 years into this experiment, and the evidence is clear and incontrovertible. It has nothing to do with a young team lacking maturity or an injured quarterback.
It has everything to do with the product and results on the field, and the 1 guy in charge of it.
“When you’re on the road, it’s hard. Tennessee is one of those hard places,” Fisher said. “But hopefully your maturity and leadership — and we are a little bit older this year — hopefully those things will help.”
Hope isn’t a plan.
Nor is week-to-week survival.
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
