Hayes: Is Lane Kiffin too good to stay at Ole Miss? We’ll find out soon enough
By Matt Hayes
Published:
They’re not going to like it, but they better prepare for it.
At some point, Ole Miss won’t be able to keep coach Lane Kiffin. No matter the money they’ll throw at him, no matter the odd yet wildly successful fit.
Because this looming coaching loss, more than anything, is about geography.
You win national championships by recruiting elite high school players, an organic process that works 1 of 2 ways: geographic location, or historic prominence.
Ole Miss has neither.
That’s not to say Kiffin can’t win at Ole Miss, because a 17-7 win over rival Mississippi State on Thanksgiving night gave the Rebels their 2nd 10-win season in the past 3 years under Kiffin.
How significant is that?
Since 1972, Ole Miss has won 10 games 4 times — 2 by Kiffin. If the Rebels win a bowl game (maybe even a New Year’s 6 bowl), those 11 wins will be the most since they began playing football in 1902.
No amount of money that Ole Miss can throw at Kiffin — he currently makes $7.35 million annually — will change that reality. No amount of love and support and commitment to be more like Alabama and Georgia can change the fact that Ole Miss will never be Alabama and Georgia.
Ole Miss doesn’t have the historical significance of Alabama (and therefore, the draw for elite high school players), and doesn’t have the recruiting footprint of Georgia. The state of Georgia is 1 of the top 4 states for high school recruits.
The 3 in front of Georgia: Texas, Florida and California. Kiffin already had his shot at the best job in California at USC, and any number of reasons — including a loss of 30 scholarships over 3 seasons because of NCAA violations from the Pete Carrol era — led to an infamous firing on the tarmac at LAX after a loss at Arizona State (he really wasn’t fired on the tarmac, but it’s legend now, so roll with it).
Let’s just say the state of Mississippi — while underrated as a producer of elite high school talent — isn’t near the top 4 states for recruiting.
That point hit home earlier this month when Ole Miss rolled into Georgia, and lost by 35 to the 2-time defending national champions.
“I’m very realistic,” Kiffin said after that game. “That was not a Playoff-looking team at all that we put out there. We’ve got to recruit at a higher level. I’m not blaming. We’ve got to coach better. At some point, whatever those stats are … we’ve singed 1 5-star (recruit), they signed 24.
“It kind of does show up at some point. We would have to recruit at a better level.”
That’s not happening at Ole Miss.
If Kiffin stays in Oxford, recruiting will no doubt improve. He’ll get more 5-star players. He won’t get 24.
If he’s the coach at, say, Texas A&M or Florida — in the heart of those talent-rich states — he at least has the ability to get those 24. And getting players and building organically is how nearly every national title in the past 3 decades has been won.
Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Florida State, Ohio State, USC, Miami. See the common denominator?
Kiffin can only work so much transfer portal magic year after year, and more than likely can’t do enough to get Ole Miss beyond its current ceiling. He could get the Rebels to the 12-team Playoff beginning in 2024, but how far does it go after that?
A 1st-round win or a quarterfinal loss? In the best-case scenario.
It may or may not be this offseason — heck, this coming week, with Texas A&M — but it’s coming. It’s the nature of the coaching business.
If you want to move to the top, and want to coach at a program set up to win national titles, you have to strike when you’re hot. Kiffin isn’t going to get much hotter than double-digit win seasons in 2 of the past 3 years.
Or maybe he’ll do it again in 2024, and maybe the Florida job then opens up — and that jewel of a job that can’t seem to get it right fits with Kiffin.
Again, this won’t be about money. Whatever Ole Miss offers Kiffin to stay, he’ll get more from a program that has the ability to procure elite players at a higher level than Ole Miss.
Texas A&M or Florida, or yep, even Alabama when Nick Saban decides he has had enough. At this point, with so much new heading into the 2024 season, anything is possible.
Brian Kelly left Notre Dame. Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma. Nothing should shock anyone, anymore.
And it shouldn’t shock Ole Miss when Kiffin finally does leave for a bigger job.
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
