Hayes: Midseason mea culpa: My 6 worst preseason SEC predictions
By Matt Hayes
Published:
Never underestimate the power of the pen (or laptop). Doctors bury their mistakes, columnists’ mistakes live forever.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t ask for absolution every now and then.
It’s time for the dumb and disastrous midseason review of preseason declarations.
LSU will win the national title
May as well suck it up, and address this right out of the gate.
Those national title hopes took a hit with the season opening unmasking at the hands of Florida State. The Noles’ 28-point run in the 2nd half was the most impressive statement yet this season.
I could save face by declaring LSU isn’t out of it yet, but that’s going to take nothing short of an act of God. Or winning out, and no unbeaten teams after Championship Weekend — and FSU with 2 losses.
The bigger issue is the LSU defense (30.3 ppg.), and it underscores the true unknown of the transfer portal. It’s not just adding players and assuming they’ll smoothly assimilate into your culture and thrive.
It’s finding true impact players, not guys who left other schools because they weren’t playing or were playing at the FCS level. Moving stud edge Harold Perkins all over the front 7 hasn’t helped, either.
Where would this team be without the remarkable half season of QB Jayden Daniels: 2,809 total yards (515 rush), 26 TDs (4 rush)?
Graham Mertz is the worst QB in the SEC
One game does not a season make. However, Mertz has done at Florida what he couldn’t do at Wisconsin: protect the ball and steer clear of damaging decisions in big games.
The entire Mertz analysis must be analyzed through the lens of Florida coach Billy Napier’s offense — and where it heads in the 2nd half of the season.
Napier’s conservative play-calling, and lack of 2nd and 3rd level throws over the first 6 games of the season made Mertz a check-down quarterback. Short throws, high completion percentage rate, but significant struggles on key 3rd down conversions.
Against South Carolina — which has the worst pass defense in the SEC — throws moved to the 2nd and 3rd levels and Mertz had success. So much success, in fact, that he had a career game.
The question: Was Mertz’s check-down philosophy over the first 6 weeks of the season because he was reined in by Napier, who felt as though the best opportunity to win is playing conservatively?
Or was Mertz simply not trusting — take your pick — protection and receivers gaining separation and making difficult catches (which they did in the South Carolina game). Or a combination of both?
Napier said 2 weeks ago that Mertz had to start taking more chances in the offense and make tight window throws. Maybe that gives us an idea of where Mertz was the first 6 weeks of the season.
Mertz averaged 7.4 yards per attempt in 4 previous games against Power 5 teams. Against South Carolina, he averaged 8.8 yards per attempt, and had 11 completions of 15+ yards.
Maybe Mertz is now playing with confidence after the South Carolina game. Maybe we’ll see more of those tight-window throws, and the pass game further develop heading into the most difficult stretch of the season.
Then watch how high he moves in my QB rankings.
If QB Jalen Milroe were good enough to start, Alabama wouldn’t have added Tyler Buchner from the spring portal
Not only is Milroe the best quarterback on the roster, it’s not remotely close.
Not only is Milroe the only quarterback on the roster who could win critical SEC games, he’s getting better week after week — and has become the most important player on the offense.
It doesn’t look fluid and smooth like Bryce Young. It doesn’t look prolific and accurate like Tua Tagovailoa or Mac Jones.
But the results are undeniable. Since the Texas loss, Milroe is completing 64% of his passes for 948 yards and 9 TDs (3 rush).
He has always been an accurate deep ball thrower, but he’s improving each week on 1st and 2nd level throws — both accuracy and anticipation.
“He’s doing a lot better,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said this week.
That’s underselling it. Milroe is the reason Alabama beat Ole Miss and Texas A&M, which both loaded the line of scrimmage and forced Alabama to win with the passing game. Which it did.
He’ll be the reason Alabama beats Tennessee and LSU, too.
In fact, if Alabama and Texas were to play again — or even meeting in a New Year’s 6 bowl or the Playoff — the Tide would be favored because of Milroe and his rapid improvement.
Joe Milton III will play in 2023 like he did against Clemson in the Orange Bowl
I made this declaration based entirely on Vols coach Josh Heupel’s quarterbacks of the past, and their prolific seasons.
Hendon Hooker, Dillon Gabriel, McKenzie Milton, Drew Lock, Landry Jones. All with bloated numbers and record-setting seasons playing quarterback under Heupel.
But maybe Milton is what he has always been: a solid quarterback who hovers around completing 60% of his passes, with a history of uneven play in big games.
In Tennessee’s 2 biggest games of the season against Florida and Texas A&M, Milton completed 55% of his passes for 387 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs. The Vols lost to Florida and beat Texas A&M — despite Milton completing 50% of his passes and throwing for 100 yards.
The Vols still have games at Alabama, Kentucky and Missouri, and get Georgia in Knoxville. That’s 4 of the top defenses in the SEC, and a difficult lift for a quarterback completing 55% of his passes in big games.
Arkansas will return to the upper half of the SEC
This was based on a team that lost 4 1-possession games and a program that had developed a winning personality under coach Sam Pittman.
We’re halfway through the season, and Arkansas already has 4 more 1-possession losses. That’s 8 in 2 seasons, and much like last year, the Hogs were 3-to-4 plays away from winning all 4 games.
“I know to the outside world, it doesn’t look like we’ve got a good football team, but we do,” Pittman said last week. “We just have to close out these games.”
The problem for Hogs fans: Before it went south in 2018-19 with back-to-back winless SEC seasons under Chad Morris, coach Bret Bielema’s Hogs teams played in 21 1-possession games. Bielema, like Pittman, was the perfect fit for the program, loved Arkansas and Arkansas loved him back.
The problem in the here and now for Pittman and the Hogs: They’re wasting 2 seasons of a rare career from QB KJ Jefferson. In the past 2 seasons alone (18 games), Jefferson has 48 TDs (10 rush), and 82 for his career (20 rush).
To be fair to Pittman (and Bielema), that’s the road in the brutal SEC West — especially when you’re playing with a roster that’s likely the 5th or 6th best in the division.
The Kentucky offense will be elite
I’m not the only one sideways about this. So are Kentucky coach Mark Stoops and OC Liam Coen.
So, too, is QB Devin Leary.
What seemed like a perfect fit has devolved into mounting weekly frustration at an offense that can’t efficiently throw the ball because of poor play from the most important position on the field.
Leary transferred from NC State, where, when healthy, he was the best quarterback in the ACC. That’s not the case this season, despite Kentucky surrounding Leary with every possible advantage.
Stoops convinced Coen to leave the NFL’s Rams to return to the Commonwealth. He rebuilt a leaky offensive line through the transfer portal, and UK returned an elite receiving corps that simply needed an accurate, confident quarterback.
Leary has thrown more interceptions (7) than any other season in his 5-year career, and his completion percentage (54.4) is nearly 11 points lower than his best season in 2021 (65.7).
“Those throws need to be made, those completions need to be made,” Leary said after an ugly loss to Missouri. “Honestly, there’s no excuse for it to be one step off or 1 yard away from a catch.”
Honorable mention preseason misses:
— Missouri will finish 4-8. The Tigers are 6-1, and on pace for 10 wins.
— No matter the quarterback at Auburn, he will be among the most efficient in the SEC under coach Hugh Freeze. Payton Thorne has the worst pass efficiency rating in the SEC (118.61).
— Ole Miss will play as many as 3 quarterbacks (Jaxson Dart, Spencer Sanders, Walker Howard). Dart is the unquestioned starter; Sanders has played mostly mop up time.
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
