So before we get elbows deep in debating the decision, it clearly looks as though Spencer Rattler has already made it.
The NFL or college football for the suddenly hot (again) South Carolina quarterback?
“The least I could do is play in the bowl game,” Rattler said earlier this month when asked about his football future heading into the Gator Bowl against Notre Dame.
He spoke of his love and respect for South Carolina coach Shane Beamer, and how much he has grown through 1 season in Columbia — and that he “had to do it” for Beamer and his teammates.
That doesn’t sound like a guy who’s returning to the college game.
The only question: what could possibly keep him at South Carolina for the 2023 season?
How about the 2024 Draft?
“There’s a big difference between this year’s quarterback class and 2024,” an NFL scout told me. “You’ve got Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in 2024, and that’s about it. Everyone else is a project, or hasn’t consistently proven it.”
That leaves Rattler — who also could be considered a “project” who has yet to prove it consistently — in position to work all the way back to where he was at Oklahoma prior to the 2021 season. Scouts were infatuated with his arm and his ability to make throws off schedule and off platform with different arm angles and with a clean or dirty pocket.
Then it got ugly in the Texas game, and Rattler was replaced by Williams and never played a significant down again at OU. Rattler transferred to South Carolina and tried this season to regain the 2020 form that made scouts project him among the top players in the draft.
It is here we we hit the fork in the road, and where the decision comes into play.
Before back-to-back big games this season in wins over Tennessee and Clemson, the idea of Rattler leaving for the NFL was laughable. He showed the ability to play like he did in 2020, but much of the season was avoiding pressure, forcing throws — and looking nothing like a guy who should leave early for the NFL.
But the performances in those 2 upset wins — when Rattler threw for 798 yards, 8 TDs and completed 72 percent of his passes, and drove the ball accurately on intermediate and deep throws — has both Rattler and NFL scouts thinking differently about his future.
There are still some in the league who believe Rattler should stay another season, and build on those 2 games — and potentially a 3rd against a solid Notre Dame defense in the Gator Bowl. Refine his craft, stack strong games and improve his draft stock — and pick up a few NIL checks in the process.
The reality is Rattler had 8 TDs against Tennessee and Clemson — and 8 TDs in the remaining 10 games. And there were some ugly clunkers among those 10, too.
There are others in the league who believe if Rattler puts together 3 straight big games, there’s nothing left to prove. The only reason to stay is to work his way into the 1st round and make more money on his first contract.
“But then you’re completely ignoring the value of getting on a roster, developing here and you’re an injury away from playing,” another NFL scout told me. “Instead of being an injury away from damaging your draft stock if you stay.”
The perfect world for Rattler is another big game against Notre Dame, and then using the Combine and his Pro Day at South Carolina to change the narrative of a player whose resume is a 2- or 3-game season.
Both NFL scouts I spoke to believe he’s currently a late Day 2 (2nd and 3rd rounds) or early Day 3 (4th-7th rounds) pick no matter what happens against Notre Dame. Any critical upward movement (or drop) for Rattler will come after team interviews and individual workouts.
“The South Carolina offensive line was a mess for much of the season,” a scout said. “They kind of figured it out in the last month of the season, and he played with more confidence and then everything looks better. There were people comparing him to (Patrick) Mahomes 2 years ago. All it takes is 1 (team).”
Notre Dame has the 21st-ranked pass defense in the nation and is 22nd in sacks (35). There will be pressure, and there will be tight coverage.
There will also be another opportunity for Rattler to show the turn he made in the month of November isn’t an anomaly in a sea of average.
It’s more of what NFL scouts saw in 2020, and what many believed he could be as a top prospect of the 2022 Draft.
“We’ve got guys that are experienced here, that wanted to finish this thing out right,” Rattler said. “So, you know, we’re excited about the opportunity.”
No one has more to gain than Rattler.
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
