The pick is, without question, the worst decision in the history of the NFL Draft.
The Chicago Bears not only selected Mitch Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 NFL Draft, they traded up to get Trubisky — instead of taking one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the league. Eventually, maybe the greatest.
Just in case that isn’t sobering enough, consider this: The 49ers (with Brian Hoyer as their starting quarterback), Jaguars (Blake Bortles), Titans (Marcus Mariota), Jets (Josh McCown) and Bengals (Andy Dalton) passed on Mahomes, too.
The draft isn’t an exact science, but it’s also not as difficult as it seems. Every week until the first day of the draft (April 25), we’ll compare 2 players at the same position in a Take Your Pick scenario — with expert analysis from 2 NFL scouts.
This week: USC QB Caleb Williams vs. North Carolina QB Drake Maye.
Maye (6-4, 230 pounds)
2023: 3,608 pass yards, 63.3 completion percentage, 24 TDs, 9 INTs, 8.5 yards per attempt; 449 rush yards, 9 TDs.
Career: 8,018 pass yards, 64.9 completion percentage, 63 TDs, 16 INTs, 8.7 yards per attempt; 1,209 rush yards, 16 TDs.
Record as a starter: 17-9 (1-3 vs. ranked teams).
NFL comparison: Trevor Lawrence.
Williams (6-1, 215 pounds)
2023: 3,633 pass yards, 68.6 completion percentage, 30 TDs, 5 INTs, 9.4 yards per attempt; 136 rush yards, 11 TD.
Career: 10,082 pass yards, 66.8 completion percentage, 93 TDs, 14 INTs, 9.2 average per attempt; 960 rush yards, 27 TDs.
Record as a starter: 23-10 (3-9 vs. ranked teams).
NFL comparison: Russell Wilson.
We start with Williams vs. Maye even though both scouts who spoke to Saturday Down South say Jaylen Daniels could move higher. How much higher?
“The first pick,” one scout said. “He has improved that much, his ceiling is high, high, and there’s bound to be a team or 2 that falls in love with him.”
Knowing that, we’ll stick with Williams — widely projected at the No. 1 overall pick — vs. Maye.
Both were high volume throwers, running systems built toward their dual-threat ability. Both pulled back some in the run game in 2023, but that was more about sharpening the throwing game and limiting opportunities to absorb big hits in their final season of college football.
The Hardware on Williams
Scout 1: “He’s not going to wow you with his size, that’s for sure. Then you watch him throw, and see the ball just jump off his hand. It’s a quick, tight motion and the ball explodes. He’s a thick guy, too. He’s not easy to bring him down back there, and he clearly can make things happen off schedule. You have to constantly be aware of that ability to take off and make a play, which makes that hesitation as a defender — or in some cases, the over-pursuit — another part of (Williams’) game.”
Scout 2: “Size is overrated. I’ve always believed that. Would you like to have a guy who’s 6-3 or 6-4? Sure. But if you have a guy who knows where to go with the ball, and can get it there quickly and accurately, who cares if he’s 6-1? Besides, this kid is a rock. Have you seen his thighs? He’s a lot like (Jalen) Hurts in that sense, but he’s a more polished thrower at this point in his career. He has proven to be durable in an offense where he takes plenty of hits — and avoids many others.”
The Hardware on Maye
Scout 1: “He’s that ‘stand tall in the pocket, find your guy and get it there’ thrower. A Matt Stafford or Justin Herbert, who can just stand back there and effortlessly fling it all over the place. A big guy who is more athletic than you’d think. He can run. He’s a long strider, and he’s got a little want-to in him — you know, he doesn’t want to go down, he wants to deliver a blow. Physically, he’s everything you could ask for. He doesn’t have a Stafford or Herbert arm — who else does? — but he can make all the throws on all 3 levels.”
Scout 2: “Last year we had the definition of the dream scenario quarterback with (Anthony) Richardson. If you could dream up a size/speed/athletic ability/arm strength combination for your starting quarterback, Richardson was it. Maye isn’t there because he’s not a 4.4 40 guy, but he’s pretty darn close. He’s a big, thick guy. And the game wears on you as a quarterback. You need a guy who can withstand the wear and tear and be available every week.”
The Software on Williams
Scout 1: “If I were out there running a defense, he’d scare the hell out of me. He can wreck your defense every single play. It’s throwing off platform, it’s the variety of release points, it’s the accuracy off schedule. What more do you need? Yeah, he also can go 30-40 (yards) with his legs. He so good at moving in the pocket and finding another second or 2 to extend plays, and then so accurate at throwing guys open.”
Scout 2: “It’s the release points, the 3/4, the sidearm, the quick flips, that makes those wow plays. We always talk about how guys are when facing pressure, and that’s a fair assessment. He’s high production against pressure. But watch his tape when protection doesn’t break down — and it broke down a lot in his 3 seasons — and watch how good he is. It’s scary how accurate and productive he is. Way too many times in our league the protection is there, but the throw isn’t.”
The Software on Maye
Scout 1: “Love the way he moves and buys time. He has this innate feeling for pressure on both sides. He knows when to take something off it, and when to drive it. If there’s one criticism, I would say that his mechanics sometimes fade a bit. Even in clean pockets, he falls off throws. But that’s a simple fix. He’s a tough guy who shows it on the field, and I love that in a quarterback. So do teammates.”
Scout 2: “Every time I watched him play, I learned something new. I saw something I didn’t see the time before. I say that both positively and negatively — but the negatives almost always were base adjustments. Nothing flawed. The positives far outweighed. You’re talking about a kid who’s going to blow away teams at the Combine with his knowledge of the game.”
The Choice
Scout 1: “I’d go with Williams. There’s too much to like about what he can do off schedule, and how dangerous he becomes. It’s a quarterback league, and it’s a pressure the quarterback league. You better have someone who can make the other guy pay for trying to pressure. It’s not that Maye can’t or won’t, I just think Williams is the better of the 2 in those specific situations.”
Scout 2: “I don’t think you can go wrong. This isn’t a Bears question, because they could easily trade the pick. I fall on the side of these 2 guys are a lot closer than anyone thinks. If (Justin) Herbert and (Joe) Burrow came out in the same draft, who are you taking? I’d probably say Williams, but I could easily be talked into Maye.”
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
