Hayes: Who’s the best SEC QB in the NFL Draft? The debate rages on among scouts
By Matt Hayes
Published:
The contrived show is over. The cameras are gone, and the whirl of the social media circus has subsided.
Now the Panthers have to make a pick. So do the Texans and Colts and maybe a few others in the hunt for a quarterback.
There’s no more important position in football — and no greater question in this year’s NFL Draft: Bryce Young, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson or CJ Stroud?
All 4 likely will be selected in the top 10 of next month’s draft, and 3 of the 4 (Young, Levis, Richardson) could make SEC history: 3 SEC quarterbacks selected in the top 10 in the same draft.
We’re a month from the NFL Draft, and league scouts and personnel departments will eventually find their way back to their comfortable home: game tape.
For all the hype and hoopla of the Combine and Pro Day workouts — a masterful marketing ploy by the NFL that keeps the league in the media focus — they essentially mean nothing. The top 4 quarterbacks will visit with teams over the next 4 weeks, and those interviews will hold more weight than anything that happened during the underwear Olympics.
That, and game tape.
Saturday Down South spoke to 3 NFL scouts about the 3 SEC quarterbacks who could be selected in the top 10, and how the last 3 months have either changed their minds — or strengthened their resolve.
Who goes No.1 overall?
Scout 1: “If you’re comfortable with the history of under 6-foot quarterbacks in our league — there are many more misses than hits — Young is the cleanest of the group. He’s so much further ahead of the others as far understanding the passing game concepts, throwing on time and seeing the field.”
Scout 2: “I would go with Young, but everything I’ve heard is the Panthers are torn over Young and Stroud. If I’m sitting there at 1, it would be difficult to ignore Richardson with all of those skills — especially if you’re convinced it’s mechanics and other tweaks that can fix his faults.”
Scout 3: “There are some teams who have Levis at (1). I know for a fact that at least a few think he’s Josh Allen. The position is so important, and you can’t miss on it unless you’re set up to miss. The 49ers could miss because structurally, the roster was set. They missed on a guy that they traded 3 picks in the top 100 for — 2 in the first round — to wind up going with the last guy (Brock Purdy) selected in last year’s draft.”
What is your greatest concern about Richardson’s ability to transition to the NFL?
Scout 1: “Accuracy, and there are any number of ways to fix it. There are some flaws mechanically, but more than anything, he doesn’t play with confidence. That’s an accuracy killer. He doesn’t play with confidence because he doesn’t see the field well. A lot of that can be taught.”
Scout 2: “Where do I begin? He’s inconsistent week to week, and that’s all about preparation. So is that coaching and scheme, or is that a guy that’s not fully invested? There are so many little things that need to be addressed, but the one that stands out is the difference between the guy who played his best game against a really good Texas A&M defense, and the guy who played his worst game against USF. That’s confidence and preparation.”
Scout 3: “He has played 13 games. Think about that. The last guy picked in the Top 5 who played 1 season and 1 (other start) of college football was Trey Lance. Very similar player. A rare athlete, and a guy who needed a lot of work as a thrower. And the 49ers just said they’re moving forward with Purdy.”
Who has the highest ceiling?
Scout 1: “Levis. All day long. And really, that’s only because I just don’t know if Young is going to be able to absorb the punishment. He’s not a big guy. He played in the high 180s (pounds) last year, and he’s not a muscular guy. He’s not Kyler Murray, who has already started breaking down. Levis has the frame and the arm talent and just needs to be coached. There are just too many unknowns with Richardson.”
Scout 2: “Young. We’re a league based on knowing where to go with the ball, and getting it there accurately. And if you can move in the pocket to avoid pressure, if you can escape and throw accurately off schedule, you’re going to have success. I know Young can do that consistently. I’m not sure the other 2 can.”
Scout 3: “I’d love to say Richardson, because if he can be fixed, my gosh, heaven help all of us. But Young is the easy answer. Sometimes we just overanalyze everything. Watch the tape. He’s a pure thrower. That’s what our league is all about.”
The greatest negative for each that will be emphasized as teams jockey for position
Scout 1: “Young’s size and his ability to see and throw over the line of scrimmage. And the really poor throws both Levis and Richardson made over last season — which leads to seeing the field narrative. Frankly, it’s a fair criticism.”
Scout 2: “Believe it or not, most teams realize both Levis and Richardson are projects. Richardson isn’t alone on that island. Accuracy is the big issue for both of them. We’re a quarterback league. It’s a vertical passing league. You can’t miss a majority of intermediate and deep throws. If these 3 guys were in the 2020 or 2021 draft, it’s a different story. Young goes in the first 10, but Levis and Richardson probably don’t go until late 1st.”
Scout 3: “Young’s size will be scrutinized over and over. Hell, if he were 6-0 or 6-1, it would be the same. The height doesn’t bother me. He has to get bigger and stronger. Everybody sees Josh Allen in Levis and Richardson. Allen was a huge project in college. Didn’t really throw it much at Wyoming, but the talent was obvious. It’s similar now, but if you watch the tape, there are times when I have no idea what Levis and Richardson are seeing. And that’s a concern.”
Best guess of order selected, and why
Scout 1: “The Panthers aren’t devoid of talent. They’re not that far away. Whoever they pick will more than likely play right now. There are 2 guys who are ready to play Day 1: Young and Stroud. I like (Young), who has proven over the last 2 years that he can play at a high level behind a shaky offensive line. Pressure is everything, as is how the quarterback responds to it. I’ll go Young, Richardson, Levis, and all 3 in the Top 10.”
Scout 2: “Young is the first SEC quarterback selected, but I’m not sure it’s 1 overall. He’s the most polished of the 3 SEC quarterbacks, and frankly, he’s the only one I’d feel comfortable picking in the top 10. Richardson will go in the Top 5, and Levis more than likely will be selected in the first 10.”
Scout 3: “Richardson. I think the Panthers are going to pull the trigger. They’ve got (Andy) Dalton there to play early on, and Richardson can sit for half a season while he gets individual instruction day after day. I’ve never seen a greater chasm between what various personnel departments believe. From the next Cam Newton, to out of the league in 5 years. Then I’d go with Young to the Texans — which is a good spot for him to sit for a bit behind Davis Mills — and Levis to the Raiders.”
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
