The race for the 2025 Heisman Trophy is almost over.
The Heisman winner will be announced on Saturday evening during a ceremony in New York City. The top contenders following conference championship weekend are Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia.Â
Other contenders such as Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love appear to be out of the running as of Monday morning.
Heisman Trophy race
Thanks to prediction markets like Kalshi, we can make a highly-educated guess at who will ultimately take home the hardware this week.Â
Per the current Kalshi marketplace, Mendoza is a huge favorite to win the Heisman Trophy but Pavia still retains some hope of earning college football’s top individual prize.Â
Here’s a live look at Kalshi’s Heisman Trophy marketplace:
Interested in making predictions of your own on Kalshi? Here’s a Kalshi promo code to help you get started!Â
Heisman Trophy breakdown
Mendoza was neck-and-neck with Pavia and Sayin for much of Saturday, but pulled ahead after he led the Hoosiers to an upset win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
For the season, Mendoza has a passer efficiency rating of 181.4, which is 2nd nationally behind Sayin. Mendoza is also top 3 among qualified quarterbacks in yards per attempt and has a 33-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio.
Pavia also has a strong statistical case. He’s 4th nationally in passer efficiency rating and helped lead Vanderbilt to its best-ever regular season despite facing a loaded SEC schedule. Vandy’s strength-of-schedule ranks 25th this season, per ESPN’s Football Power Index (IU’s SOS ranks just a few spots lower at No. 29).
Regardless of who wins, either Indiana or Vanderbilt will be taking home the first Heisman Trophy in program history. Indiana’s last top-3 finisher in Heisman voting was Anthony Thompson in 1989. Vandy has never produced a top-3 vote-getter in the Heisman.Â
Heisman Trophy finalists will be announced on Monday evening.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
