The first 3 weeks of the 2026 season are in the rearview mirror, so it’s a good time to take stock of the race for the College Football Playoff.
By looking at CFP qualification odds on Kalshi from the preseason to now, we can measure which teams have increased — or decreased — their postseason chances the most through 3 weeks.
At the end, we’ll also look at where each of the major conferences stands in terms of expected CFP berths entering Week 4.
Biggest risers in CFP odds since preseason
Let’s dive in:
Ole Miss
Preseason odds: 39%
After Week 3 odds: 56%
Ole Miss has seen the biggest increase in CFP qualification equity to this point in the season, which shouldn’t be much of a surprise. The Rebels have easily the best pair of wins in the nation after 3 weeks as they’ve already beaten Louisville and LSU.
Despite those victories, Ole Miss is hardly better than a coin flip to make the CFP according to Kalshi’s current odds. That’s because Ole Miss still has to play a difficult schedule that includes Florida, Texas and Georgia, among other tests.
Kalshi’s win total projection for Ole Miss has the Rebels getting to 10+ wins just 39% of the time, suggesting there’s a good chance they could reach the CFP with a 9-3 record.
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Florida
Preseason odds: 23%
After Week 3 odds: 35%
Florida has also seen a steep increase in CFP equity, though the Gators don’t yet have a top-25 win on their résumé. I’d venture the market’s optimism for UF comes from other mechanisms.
First, Florida’s on-field performance has been better than expected. The Gators are 2-0 against the spread vs. FBS opponents and quarterback Aaron Philo has been exceptional. Philo is currently 8th nationally in passer efficiency rating, ahead of every SEC quarterback not named Gunner Stockton or Kamario Taylor.
Second, Florida’s schedule already looks weaker than it did on paper back in the preseason. South Carolina, Oklahoma and Florida State have all been disappointing to start the year. UF does still have to face Texas and Georgia away from home, but 9-3 may be enough to get the Gators into the field. The odds of that happening have been increasing with each passing week.
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Biggest fallers
Here’s a breakdown of the biggest fallers so far:
Oregon
Preseason odds: 75%
After Week 3 odds: 35%
Oregon has been by far the biggest faller in CFP odds so far this season. The Ducks were slightly disappointing in a win over Boise State in Week 1 before getting roughed up by Oklahoma State in stunning fashion in Week 2.
A Week 3 blowout win over Portland State did little to improve Oregon’s postseason odds. Oregon’s offense is currently in the 20th percentile in EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. That’s despite returning Dante Moore and a host of other highly-touted playmakers and linemen.
Oregon still has to play at Columbus later this season, so the bulk of its CFP hopes are likely on the line in Week 4 as it goes on the road to face USC.
Texas A&M
Preseason odds: 40%
After Week 3 odds: 13%
There were plenty of analysts sounding the alarm on Texas A&M entering the season, but I’m not sure many were expecting the disaster the Aggies put on the field to open SEC play against Kentucky. Not only did UK pull off the outright upset, the Wildcats were thoroughly dominant.
That loss — plus the implications that come with losing in that fashion to one of the worst teams on your schedule — has caused A&M’s Playoff hopes to plummet.
A&M is expected to pick up its second loss this weekend in Baton Rouge, which means its margin for error could be gone before the end of September. The Aggies still have 5 ranked opponents on their 2026 schedule and that doesn’t include a road trip to Norman in late November.
Shift in conference outlooks
Although there’s been some movement with individual teams, most conferences are still expected to produce roughly the same number of Playoff teams as they were at the beginning of the season.
One caveat: Kalshi’s market lists odds for 50 teams, so it’s not inclusive of all power-conference programs. Mississippi State is excluded, as are 9 teams from the Big Ten, 6 teams from the ACC and 6 teams from the Big 12.
Perhaps excluded programs like Mississippi State, UCLA, Nebraska, and West Virginia will be added in the coming weeks if they continue to make progress. But for now, any CFP equity they may have is completely excluded from this exercise.
The SEC is expected to produce about 4.35 Playoff teams, down slightly from a preseason expectation of 4.52. While Florida and Ole Miss have seen their odds increase significantly, there’s been some give-back with Texas A&M, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Auburn.
The Big Ten is also in a similar boat — now at 3.24 expected Playoff teams after landing at 3.54 in late August. Oregon’s collapse has been the biggest consequence for the Big Ten, though Washington has been disappointing. Ohio State’s loss to Texas has had virtually no impact on its CFP odds — the Buckeyes have the same 74% chance they had to make the CFP as they did in the preseason, per Kalshi.
The ACC and the Big 12 both have a chance to be 2-bid leagues, per Kalshi’s odds. The ACC currently has 1.86 expected Playoff teams while the Big 12 sits at 1.94.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
