Incredible stat shows just how rare Vanderbilt’s dramatic win over NC State is
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Incredible was 1 word to describe what happened on Saturday afternoon in Nashville.
There were many others that could be picked, but somehow, some way, through good fortune for Vanderbilt and horrible execution for NC State, the Commodores ran off with a 35-31 victory after recovering a fumble by Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey in the end zone during the final, frantic seconds.
It was something not to be believed, the kind of ending that comes along, well, almost never. But it will go down as 1 of the craziest endings to a college football game in the sport’s history, and it happened in the Music City in Week 3 of the 2026 season.
How unlikely was Vandy’s ridiculous victory on Saturday?
According to ESPN, teams over the past 20 seasons when leading with the ball in the final 10 seconds of regulation were 1,046-1 going into the scenario that unfolded in Nashville.
Make that 1,046-2 after NC State literally fumbled away a victory in the final seconds, and Vandy was happy to recover the ball and realize that it had just pulled off the stunner of all stunners.
Vandy got the gift of all gifts on Saturday, but contending for an SEC title is going to take a whole lot of fortune for the Commodores this season. Here is what the Kalshi market is currently saying about the top teams’ odds to capture the conference crown:
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
