Kentucky Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Wildcats in 2026
By Adam Spencer
Published:
The Kentucky Wildcats are yet another SEC squad entering the first year of a new coaching regime.
Out is longtime stalwart Mark Stoops, who led the program to heights it hadn’t achieved in decades, but whose teams had grown stale in recent years. In is young dynamo Will Stein, who has already raised eyebrows with his work in the transfer portal and his brash style.
He’s been brought in to fix a stagnant offense, so we’ll see how he fares in 2026 and beyond.
But first, check out the Crystal Ball predictions we’ve covered thus far:
Now let’s dive into the 2026 forecast for the Kentucky Wildcats.
One Big Question: How good can this offense be?
Kentucky finished 8th in total offense under OC Liam Coen in 2021. Coen obviously then went back to the NFL ranks and has risen all the way up the coaching ladder to where he is now — the head coach of the suddenly capable Jacksonville Jaguars.
Following Coen’s departure, Kentucky’s offense has, frankly, stunk. That’s a big reason Stoops is no longer the head coach. The Wildcats finished 14th in total offense in 2022 (out of 14 SEC teams at the time), 11th (out of 14) in 2023, 15th (out of 16) in 2024 and 14th in 2025.
Kentucky won 10 games in 2021 with the Coen/Stoops combo. The records since then? Well, not so great — 7-6 in 2022, 7-6 in 2023, 4-8 in 2024 and 5-7 in 2025.
Basically, the formula seems to be this — put together a competent offense and you’ll compete for bowl berths in Lexington. That’s Will Stein’s specialty.
Stein’s Oregon offenses were 2nd in the Big Ten in 2025, 1st in the B1G in 2024 and 1st in the Pac-12 in 2023 in yards per game.
I don’t expect Stein to put together a top 5 SEC offense in Year 1. Heck, I don’t even think this Kentucky team will be a top-half SEC offense this year (though I like QB Kenny Minchey, RB CJ Baxter, WR Nic Anderson and some of the offensive linemen the Wildcats added through the portal). But if he can show some improvement this fall on the offensive side of the ball, it’ll attract more talent in the portal in the coming years.
Kentucky’s Projected Wins Total
Here’s what Kalshi has to say about Kentucky’s projected win total:
- Kentucky to win 5 or more games: 56%
- Kentucky to win 4 or fewer games: 48%
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Game-by-Game Predictions
Here’s how I see the 2026 season going for the Kentucky Wildcats:
Week 1: vs. Youngstown State (W)
I don’t think I need to spend much time on this one. The Will Stein era gets off to a solid start with an easy home win over an inferior opponent.
Week 2: vs. Alabama (L)
Welcome to the SEC, Mr. Stein! Our first SEC matchup of the year takes place at Kroger Field and pits the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Wildcats. Kalen DeBoer absolutely cannot afford to lose this game, and he won’t. Bama rolls.
Week 3: at Texas A&M (L)
Oh, you thought opening with a home game against Alabama was rough? Well how about heading to Kyle Field to face the Texas A&M Aggies as the first SEC road game for Will Stein? Yeah, it doesn’t get much tougher than that for a 2-game start to the SEC schedule.
Week 4: South Alabama (W)
Fortunately, the Cats get a reprieve here. They absolutely should not underestimate this team, but they should pick up another win.
Week 5: at South Carolina (L)
If this game was in Lexington, I’d probably pick the Wildcats. But it isn’t, so I’m not. South Carolina gets Kentucky at Williams-Brice and Shane Beamer gets a win that will help him attempt to save his job.
Week 6: vs. LSU (L)
Lane Kiffin comes to town in Week 6 with his LSU Tigers. He is the Portal King for a reason, having brought in another elite class. Stein did good work in the portal, too, but it pales in comparison to what Kiffin built in Baton Rouge. The Bayou Bengals win big.
Week 7: at Oklahoma (L)
This is another tough back-to-back with potential Playoff teams. Oklahoma‘s defense is elite. The offense is solid when QB John Mateer is healthy. Going to Norman is another tough ask for Stein and the Cats.
Week 8: vs. Vanderbilt (W)
Fear not, Kentucky fans! This season won’t be a winless one in the SEC for the Wildcats. Kentucky pulls off a win over a rebuilding Vanderbilt squad to give the Kroger Field fans something to cheer about.
Week 9: OFF
Just when the Wildcats have finally picked up a conference win, the bye week hits.
Week 10: at Tennessee (L)
The Tennessee Volunteers just named Faizon Brandon as the starting QB. He’s a true freshman, so there will be some growing pains. But by Week 10, he’ll have settled into his role. I have questions about Kentucky’s defense, especially with Alex Afari no longer practicing with the team. The freshman quarterback, a stout offensive line and elite RB DeSean Bishop lead the Vols to a win on Rocky Top.
Week 11: vs. Florida (L)
The bright point of Kentucky’s season in 2025 was thumping rival Florida 38-7 in Lexington. That was the best the Wildcats played all year. But in 2026, they have to go to The Swamp, where Jon Sumrall has ushered in a new era for the Gators. Florida struggles early, but Jadan Baugh breaks off a big run late to give the Gators the home win.
Week 12: at Mizzou (L)
I have questions about the Kentucky run defense, as I mentioned in the Tennessee section. On the road at Faurot Field, at a point in time when Ahmad Hardy should be back at full strength, Mizzou‘s rushing attack wears down the Wildcats in the second half.
Week 13: vs. Louisville (L)
Spoiler alert for my Ole Miss column coming up in a few days: I have Louisville losing the opener to the Rebels in Nashville. I believe the Cardinals will regroup after that, though. They have a favorable schedule and avoid the ACC’s top teams. Therefore, I think they’ll enter this rivalry game with 1 or 2 losses, needing a win to potentially punch a ticket to the Playoff. Louisville buckles down and wins convincingly (though not by nearly as many points as last year).
2026 Projection: 3-9 (1-8)
Five of Kentucky’s 7 losses last year came by 20+ points. The lowest point was a 41-0 massacre against rival Louisville on the road to end the season. That won’t happen again this year, but Kentucky still has a lot of work to do to become a competitive SEC squad like it was during the heights of the Stoops era.
12-Team Playoff Berth? No
Just to reiterate here… I’m still bullish on the Will Stein era in Lexington. But the first season will pass without a bowl berth and without a trip to the Playoff. Expect bigger things in 2027 and beyond, though.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
