Kentucky will go on the road to face Auburn in a top-25 matchup between 2 of the best teams in the SEC.Â
The Wildcats have struggled lately, losing 5 of their last 10. Meanwhile, Auburn is 9-3 in SEC play and undefeated at home this season. The Tigers are still firmly in the mix for the SEC regular season title.
Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:
Kentucky vs. Auburn Betting Odds
Spread: Auburn -8.5 (DraftKings)
Total: Over/Under 165.5 points (DraftKings)
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Betting trends to know for Kentucky
Kentucky is…
- 14-10 against the spread
- 3-1 against the spread as an underdog
- 4-2 against the spread on the road
- 6-5 against the spread in SEC games
- 4-6 against the spread in its last 10 games
Betting trends to know for Auburn
Auburn is…
- 16-9 against the spread
- 16-8 against the spread as a favorite
- 9-4 against the spread at home
- 9-3 against the spread in SEC games
3 notes for the game
Auburn’s home court advantage
Auburn has been one of college basketball’s best teams at home so far in 2023-24. The Tigers have an undefeated record at Neville Arena and have been dominant in that building during SEC play. Here are Auburn’s margins of victory at home in SEC play: 40, 18, 27, 23, 15 and 11. That stretch includes wins over NCAA Tournament hopefuls in Alabama, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
Auburn’s dominance on its home floor has translated to its record against the spread. The Tigers are 9-4 ATS at home this season, and their last home loss against the number came all the way back on Jan. 2 against Penn (by a half point). Auburn is covering SEC home games by an average of 11 points per game. The 40-point win over South Carolina skews that somewhat, but Auburn has beaten the number by double digits in 4 of its 6 SEC home games so far this season.
Kentucky’s defense is a big issue
After a strong to start to the year, Kentucky has faltered in recent weeks. The Wildcats enter this game having lost 5 of their last 10 contests following a 12-2 start to 2023-24. Kentucky’s inconsistent big rotation and a deep stable of freshman guards has kept it from establishing a clear identity on that end.Â
For the season, Kentucky’s defense ranks 104th nationally in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. During this recent stretch of poor play, Kentucky has given up 89 to Gonzaga, 103 to Tennessee, 94 to Florida and 97 to Texas A&M. There’s reason to believe UK’s issues on defense are getting worse, not better. Since Jan. 12, Kentucky’s defense ranks No. 150 nationally in adjusted efficiency according to BartTorvik.
It is worth noting that Kentucky did play better on the defensive end of the floor in its most recent game against Ole Miss. The Wildcats were able to control the paint thanks to a 10-block performance from center Ugonna Onyenso. His rim protection helped limit Ole Miss to just 0.88 points per possession. That marked the first time a team failed to score at least 1 point per possession against Kentucky since the Arkansas game on Jan. 27.
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Kentucky’s offense vs. Auburn’s defenseÂ
This is the matchup most fans will be tuning in to see. While UK’s defense has struggled this year, the offense is truly elite. The same could be said for Auburn’s defense, which ranks inside the top 5 nationally in adjusted efficiency per KenPom. However, there’s evidence that the Wildcats could have an edge on this end of the floor.Â
Auburn’s defense has not been quite as effective over it last few games. The Tigers gave up more than 1 point per possession in 3 of their last 4 contests, with the lone exception being against a pedestrian South Carolina offense in their most recent game. ShotQuality is also forecasting some regression for Auburn’s defensive results. The Tigers’ defense ranks just 47th nationally, per ShotQuality’s defensive metrics.
ShotQuality is also expecting some regression for Kentucky’s offense, for what it’s worth. The Wildcats’ offense ranks No. 7 on KenPom and No. 64 on ShotQuality entering Saturday’s slate. However, ShotQuality’s model has been expecting a regression for Kentucky offensively for weeks and it hasn’t happened yet. The Wildcats do rely on some incredible shotmaking from freshman guards Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. Antonio Reeves is also having a career-best season while shooting more than his fair-share of low-percentage mid-range jumpers. Regression for Kentucky’s offense is always possible, but I’m also open to the idea that UK’s shot-makers are elite and could continue to out-perform ShotQuality’s model.
1 pick for this game
Auburn -8.5. I went back and forth on whether to take Auburn or the over, but I’m going with the Tigers. I just don’t trust this Kentucky team to get stops and the Wildcats’ shot-makers may struggle a bit more with the atmosphere inside Neville Arena (Alabama sure did last week). Auburn has covered in this spot all season and I can’t see the Tigers sleeping through a top-25 game against Kentucky as they fight for the SEC’s regular season title. If you trust UK’s shooting to translate against Auburn, I think over 165.5 is also playable.
SPORTSBOOK
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
