LSU will make the trip to Tuscaloosa on Saturday to face off against rival Alabama in a major SEC showdown.
This game isn’t as nationally relevant as it usually is — LSU has lost 3 games already this season and is out of the College Football Playoff picture entering Week 11. However, there are still plenty of stakes for both teams as they prepare to take the field on Saturday night.
LSU Alabama odds
Here’s a look at the latest college football odds for this game:
LSU football notes
- LSU will be playing its first game since firing Brian Kelly on Saturday. The Tigers are coming off of an embarrassing home loss to Texas A&M. Frank Wilson is the interim head coach.
- Garrett Nussmeier has shown little signs of improvement throughout the season. Statistically, Nussmeier has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the SEC this season. He ranks 12th in passer efficiency rating during league play and has a 7-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio.
- LSU has one of the worst rushing attacks in the country. The Tigers rank 130th in rushing success rate, per Game on Paper.
- However, it’s worth noting LSU also fired offensive coordinator Joe Sloan one day after it fired Kelly. LSU does have an experienced offensive coordinator on staff in offensive line coach Alex Atkins. He previously served as OC at Florida State (2022-24) and Charlotte (2019).
- LSU’s defense had its worst game of the season last time out against the Aggies. The Tigers gave up 7 yards per play and 4 rushing touchdowns in that loss.
- LSU linebacker Whit Weeks is arguably the Tigers’ best overall player. He’s missed the last 2 games due to injury and is considered doubtful for this game against the Crimson Tide.
- LSU’s defense ranks 28th in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjust EPA-per-play metric.
Alabama football notes
- Like LSU, Alabama is coming off of an idle week and should be well-rested for this matchup against the Tigers.
- The Crimson Tide have won 7 straight games, with 4 of those victories coming against ranked opponents.
- However, underlying data suggests Alabama has been fortunate to not pick up an additional loss over the last few months. Per Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy metric, Alabama has been the third-luckiest team in the country. That metric gives Alabama an estimated 5.18 wins so far this season.
- Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is a top candidate for this year’s Heisman Trophy. The latest Heisman betting odds have Simpson running in third place behind Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza.
- Alabama’s running game has been a big problem this season. The Crimson Tide are 121st nationally in rushing success rate, per Game on Paper.
- Defensively, Alabama’s strength is its secondary. According to CFB-Graphs, Alabama has held opponents to a negative EPA-per-pass in 7 consecutive games.
- Alabama does have a bit of an injury crisis worth monitoring up until kickoff. Linebackers Qua Russaw, Cayden Jones and Jah-Marien Latham as well as defensive lineman Jeremiah Bearman are listed as out due to injury. Additionally, reserve defensive back Dre Kirkpatrick is suspended for this matchup due to a recent arrest. Finally, tight end Danny Lewis is listed as “questionable” while star receiver Ryan Williams is “probable” for the LSU game.
LSU vs. Alabama picks
We hit on a Trey’Dez Green anytime TD prop earlier this season and I’m going back to the well. Green is LSU’s best red zone threat at 6-7. He also moves remarkably well for his size. Alabama has some injury concerns this week on defense, but its cornerbacks are strong. I think LSU will be looking for Green to make some plays. Green is responsible for almost half of all LSU receptions inside the 10-yard line this season. He also leads the team in red-zone catches entering Week 11.
Pick: Trey’Dez Green anytime TD (+225 on DraftKings)
I think Alabama’s listed team total is too high. The Crimson Tide really haven’t been all that special on offense in recent weeks. Per CFB-Graphs, they actually had an EPA-per-play that was below-average in their win over South Carolina last time out. I also expect LSU to play well in its first game under interim coach Frank Wilson. The Tigers’ defense has slipped in recent weeks, but I’m banking on a rejuvenated unit showing up in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.
Pick: Alabama team total under 29.5 (-102 on BetMGM)
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Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Tuscaloosa.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
