Of course it’s a long shot, but here’s how No. 7 LSU can still make the CFP
By Les East
Published:
LSU isn’t out of the College Football Playoff picture yet.
It’s close to being out and it will be out if it doesn’t get a lot of help.
But the Tigers have gotten a lot of help in the past.
They got it in 2003 when they jumped past USC and into the BCS Championship Game because Syracuse routed Notre Dame and Boise State routed Hawaii. (Don’t ask.)
They got it in 2007 when they lost to Arkansas the day after Thanksgiving and still jumped from No. 7 into the BCS Championship Game on the final weekend.
Yeah, yeah, this is the CFP and not the BCS, but the point is there is plenty of precedent for a series of unlikely outcomes to happen and turn the college football championship picture inside out.
Especially when LSU is involved.
And this LSU team already has clawed its way from No. 25 in the preseason poll to No. 7 in the latest CFP rankings. It got as high as No. 3 and fell just four spots after the 29-0 drubbing at the hands of No. 1 Alabama two weeks ago.
So the Tigers are lurking still, even after a ho-hum win at Arkansas last week, and here’s how they still can get into the College Football Playoff:
Beat Rice and Texas A&M
If the Tigers don’t take care of business the next two weeks, nothing else matters. Beating Rice shouldn’t be a problem, beating A&M could be. But if you’re a team that’s going to surge into the CFP at the last minute, then you’re a team that’s going to win in College Station.
No. 1 Alabama beats No. 5 Georgia
The Tigers need three teams in front of them to lose and Georgia is the best candidate. An Alabama loss doesn’t do any good because a one-loss Crimson Tide team would be in the Playoff anyway. (By the way the same goes for No. 2 Clemson, so LSU needs to focus on Nos. 3-6).
Georgia is only two spots ahead of LSU and LSU beat Georgia decisively, so the Tigers will leap past the Bulldogs if Georgia loses in the SEC Championship. An upset loss to Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale likely would accomplish the same thing.
Two of these teams lose: No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 4 Michigan or No. 6 Oklahoma
The Irish will be favored against their last two opponents – No. 12 Syracuse and USC. But strange things happen to championship aspirants in November.
Besides, Syracuse knocked off Clemson last year and gave it a fight this year.
If the Orange don’t come through, the Trojans could. They have been up and down and are coming off a down with their loss to California last week, but it’s Notre Dame and USC so anything can happen. And the game is in L.A.
The Michigan scenario is simple. The Tigers can’t catch the Wolverines unless the Wolverines lose, and Ohio State is very capable of beating Michigan (in Columbus) and ending its most bitter rival’s championship hopes.
Oklahoma is rolling on offense, but it’s beatable. The Sooners have to visit No. 9 West Virginia in the regular-season finale, or they could lose in the Big 12 Championship, perhaps in a rematch with the Mountaineers.
Get lucky
OK, LSU has to be really lucky to get this far, and it’s going to need more luck beyond just having the right teams above it get upset.
The Tigers have 2 losses, they can’t win their division, let alone their conference, and even if they win their last two games they won’t be outcomes that will wow the committee.
Perhaps Michigan or Oklahoma, maybe even Notre Dame, could be impressive in a very narrow loss and stay in front of an LSU team that doesn’t appear CFP-worthy in beating Rice and Texas A&M.
Or even if the Tigers roll over their last two opponents, someone could jump past them. What if No. 10 Ohio State (one loss, albeit a blowout one at Purdue) blasts Michigan or West Virginia blasts Oklahoma? What if No. 8 Washington State rolls through the rest of its schedule, including an Apple Cup win vs. No. 18 Washington and a win in the Pac 12 title game?
The Buckeyes, the Mountaineers or the Cougars could move in front of LSU, so the Tigers can’t just be looking for teams above them to fall, they also have to keep an eye over their shoulder.
LSU’s best hope, in a nutshell, is to look extremely impressive in winning its final two games and watch Alabama knock off Georgia, have two teams out of Notre Dame, Michigan and Oklahoma lose and preferably lose while looking kind of bad without the team they lose to, e.g. Ohio State or West Virginia, looking too good in beating them, and have Washington State lose or just not be too impressive in winning.
Surely, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for LSU to get into the CFP.
In 2003 and 2007 things fell just right for LSU to get into the national championship game in the Sugar Bowl.
In 2018 there’s a very slim chance things could fall right for the Tigers to get into the CFP Championship Game.
But if history from ’03 and ’07 is going to repeat itself, it’s far more likely to come in the form of LSU winding up in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Les East is a New Orleans-based football writer who covers LSU for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @Les_East.
