Oklahoma will make the trip to Knoxville this weekend for what is being billed as a College Football Playoff eliminator between SEC programs with 2 losses apiece.
The Sooners are coming off of a tough home loss to Ole Miss this past weekend. On the other side, Tennessee had one of its best offensive games of the season in a blowout victory over Kentucky in Week 9.
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee spread
Here’s a look at the up-to-the-minute betting odds for this game:
Here’s what you should know about the Sooners and Vols before placing a bet on this game:
Oklahoma football notes
- Oklahoma is coming off of a home loss to Ole Miss. The Sooners led after 3 quarters, but were dominated by Ole Miss in the final stanza.
- OU’s offense has struggled in recent weeks, particularly since John Mateer injured his thumb against Auburn. Over his last 3 starts, Mateer is averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt and has more interceptions (3) than touchdown passes (2).Â
- Mateer’s rushing efficiency has also fallen off a cliff in SEC play. Over his last 3 starts, Mateer has just 36 yards on 35 rush attempts.
- Running the ball in general has been a problem for OU. Freshman Tory Blaylock has emerged as Oklahoma’s lead running back, but even he has a success rate of just 42%, per Game on Paper.
- Isaiah Sategna and Deion Burks are OU’s leaders in the passing game. Sategna is more of a downfield threat and leads the team with over 600 yards so far this season.
- Oklahoma’s defense is among the best in the country, although the Sooners are coming off of their worst game of the season vs. Ole Miss. Still, OU ranks 1st in defensive success rate and 1st in EPA-per-play allowed, according to Game on Paper.
- OU’s strength is its defensive line. The Sooners have multiple potential NFL prospects along their defensive line, led by R Mason Thomas.
- Cornerback has been a concern for OU at times this season, particularly against Auburn and Ole Miss. Elite wide receivers have proven to be problematic for OU’s secondary.
Tennessee football notes
- Tennessee is coming off of a blowout win over Kentucky that saw Joey Aguilar have one of the most efficient games of the year for an SEC quarterback. He threw for 396 yards on 26 attempts against the Wildcats.
- Tennessee’s offense is up to the 39th percentile in explosive play rate this season, per Game on Paper. Aguilar has been much better at finding big passing plays than Nico Iamaleava or Joe Milton were in 2023 and 2024. Aguilar has 17 completions of 30+ yards so far this season, which is tied for second among SEC quarterbacks.
- Chris Brazzell and Braylon Staley are Tennessee’s top receivers. Both have more than 40 catches this season. Brazzell leads all SEC receivers with 740 yards and 8 touchdowns so far this year.
- However, Staley has been the hot hand of late. He has 3 straight games of 90+ receiving yards. Brazzell had a couple of down games in a row before exploding for 134 yards last week against Kentucky.
- Tennessee’s defense has fallen short of any and all possible expectations this season. Perhaps the biggest red flag yet is Kentucky was able to gain 6.5 yards per play over the weekend. UK hadn’t reached that threshold in an SEC game since the 2023 season when current Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen was its offensive coordinator.
- Cornerback injuries continue to be a huge storyline for the Vols. Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III remain out with their respective injuries. However, cornerback Colton Hood is not listed on the injury report this week despite leaving the game against Kentucky. With McCoy and Gibson out, Hood has been Tennessee’s top cornerback this season so his availability is a big break for the Vols.
- The Vols have been dreadful against the run. They rank 115th nationally in defensive rushing success rate entering this week, per Game on Paper.
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee picks
Here are a couple of best bets for this game:
I’ll take the Oklahoma money line here. Tennessee won this matchup in Norman last season, but Brent Venables acquitted himself very well against Josh Heupel‘s offensive system. The Vols averaged under 5 yards per play and were ultimately fortunate to get the win. OU had multiple red zone turnovers and couldn’t muster 3.5 yards per play on offense. Tennessee’s defense has been horrendous all season. Some advanced metrics, like Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA allowed statistic, have the Vols ranked 125th nationally. The only power-conference teams ranked lower are Illinois, Arkansas, Virginia Tech and Rutgers. I could see this game going in a variety of directions, but I think the value is on the Sooners to win outright.
Pick: Oklahoma money line +135 (via bet365)
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Tennessee has been torched by slot receivers this season. Per PFF, safety Jalen McMurray has given up 199 yards and 3 touchdowns on 24 targets when defending the slot. It’s been even worse for cornerback Boo Carter — 219 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18 targets. Oklahoma’s best receiver is Isaiah Sategna, who lines up almost exclusively in the slot. John Mateer loves to hit Sategna on crossing routes and other horizontal actions where he can get some separation with his elite speed. Sategna is averaging almost 100 receiving yards per game in SEC play and now gets to face arguably the worst secondary on OU’s schedule.
Pick: Isaiah Sategna over 75.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
