Welcome to Week 10 of the 2026 college football season.
Last week was another fruitful week of predicting upsets — South Carolina (36%), Iowa State (25%) and USC (30%) were all victorious.
We’ll aim to keep that momentum going in Week 10:
Week 10 upset picks
Let’s break it down:
Alabama over LSU
I see no reason to be so optimistic about LSU. The Tigers still haven’t really beaten anyone of consequence this year despite their penchant to run up the score against overmatched teams. LSU’s best win is probably a 38-17 showing last week against Auburn. The Clemson and Texas A&M victories have aged very poorly. Now LSU is favored against a battle-tested Alabama team that should be much healthier coming out of its bye week. I think the markets are power rating LSU as if it’s one of the very best teams in the nation and this week we’ll find out if that’s justified or not.
Pick: Alabama to win (33% on Kalshi)
Miami over Notre Dame
I wrote about this matchup earlier in the week — I’m concerned about Notre Dame’s lack of ability to create explosive plays against the Canes. The Fighting Irish have been good overall offensively this season, but that’s because they’ve largely stayed out of 3rd-and-long. That was not the case in Notre Dame’s lone loss of the season against BYU (7 3rd-and-long reps) and I think we’ll see the Irish struggle on early downs again this weekend. On the other side of the ball, I think the market has over-corrected with regards to the Malachi Toney situation. Not having Toney will hurt Miami’s offense, but the Canes have enough talent to absorb his absence.
Pick: Miami to win (29% on Novig)
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West Virginia over Texas Tech
This is a major long-shot play, but I think the value is there. West Virginia’s offense is excellent — the Mountaineers are in the 99th percentile in explosive play rate. Texas Tech’s defense is good, but has been more vulnerable this season with 2025 stars David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez now in the NFL. Texas Tech is in just the 49th percentile in explosive pass play allowed, per Game on Paper. Texas Tech is the more talented team overall, but WVU has an outlier offensive profile that could make things interesting if the Red Raiders’ offense struggles again. Also worth noting that WVU is coming off of a bye while Texas Tech will be playing its 4th straight game.
Pick: West Virginia to win (14% on Kalshi)
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Vanderbilt over Mississippi State
This is mostly a bet against a Mississippi State team that has really struggled without a healthy Kamario Taylor. The Bulldogs have posted negative EPA-per-play numbers in 4 consecutive games. Defensively, Mississippi State doesn’t do anything particularly well — even Oklahoma averaged almost 7 yards per play in Starkville a couple of weeks ago. Vanderbilt has had a down season, but its offense is capable of producing explosive plays, especially through the air. I think Vandy gets this one.
Pick: Vanderbilt to win (42% on Kalshi)
Oregon over Ohio State
This isn’t the matchup we all thought we’d get at the beginning of the season. Oregon is likely out of the CFP hunt and Dante Moore is done for the year. Julian Sayin might be, too. I thought the Ducks showed some signs of life last week against a pretty good Northwestern team — they were dominant in the second half and are clearly a different offensive team when their top wide receivers are healthy. Ohio State, on the other hand, still looks lost without Sayin to steady things under center. Given Ohio State’s QB situation, I think this is more of a toss-up than the markets are currently indicating.
Pick: Oregon to win (28% on Novig)
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
