Predicting 5 upsets for Week 11 of the college football season
By Adam Spencer
Published:
There have been upsets aplenty this year in college football. Just last week, this column went 3-2 in upset picks, correctly choosing Alabama over LSU, Vanderbilt over Mississippi State and Oregon over Ohio State.
As we hit the stretch run, teams are going to continue to feel the pressure to rack up as many wins as possible. And as we’ve seen time and time again, November upsets are relatively commonplace.
So with no further ado, let’s try to predict 5 more upsets for Week 11 of the college football season:
No. 18 USC over No. 9 Indiana
When you’re trying to predict an upset, what you want to do is pick an underdog that can get the game to the 4th quarter tied or at least within one score. I like USC’s chances of doing just that on Saturday in Bloomington. The Trojans are coming off a bye week (as are the Hoosiers). Last time out, USC dominated Ohio State, while Indiana needed overtime to take down Minnesota.
Indiana, meanwhile, has had 5 of its 6 Big Ten games decided by one score. Expect this game to be close. Then all you need for the upset to hit is for a couple of bounces to go USC’s way.
Pick: USC to win (29% on Kalshi)
No. 6 Texas over No. 21 LSU
When I saw the LSU Tigers favored over the Texas Longhorns, even at home, I rushed to get in on the Texas side. The Longhorns are hitting their stride down the stretch (sound familiar?), while the Tigers were just handed a brutal loss by a rival (sound familiar?).
This should be a tight, hard-fought battle, so the fact that Texas is at 39% on Kalshi seems a few percentage points too low to me. Give me Arch Manning and the Longhorns to continue their Playoff push.
Pick: Texas to win (39% on Kalshi)
No. 12 Texas Tech over No. 25 Oklahoma State
Drew Mestemaker has been great at QB for the Cowboys, but much like Texas being an underdog on the road at LSU, I’m not buying that Texas Tech should be the underdog in Stillwater. The Red Raiders have the more-talented overall roster. The Cowboys are undefeated at home this year, but this is a team that just lost to Iowa State on the road a couple of weeks ago. Give me Texas Tech to pull off the road “upset”.
Pick: Texas Tech to win (41% on Kalshi)
San Diego State over Utah State
Utah State has yet to win a road game this year. Now, the Aggies’ road slate has been much tougher than its road slate, but this is also a team that lost to Idaho State to start the year. Yikes. Meanwhile, San Diego State is 4-1 at home, with its 1 loss coming by 2 scores to a solid James Madison squad. I think this market is slightly mis-priced.
Pick: San Diego State to win (44% on Kalshi)
Northwestern over No. 20 Ohio State
Northwestern OC Chip Kelly is quite familiar with Ohio State head coach Ryan Day, having won a national title with the Buckeyes back in 2024. The Buckeyes are at home in this one, but they’re still going to be without QB Julian Sayin.
Northwestern might also be without its star QB, Aidan Chiles, who continues to deal with an upper-body injury. He missed last week’s loss to Iowa, but now that Kelly has had a week to figure out what Nicco Marchiol can and can’t do, he should have a better game plan.
The Wildcats are desperate, while the Buckeyes might be feeling down on themselves in what increasingly looks like a lost season. The price is right for me to take a small flyer on the Wildcats.
Pick: Northwestern to win (21% on Kalshi)
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
