Welcome to Week 6 of the 2025 season.
As usual, this story will seek to predict 5 outright upsets for the weekend to come. Last week, we went 2-3 but still had a profitable week overall thanks to outright wins from Alabama (+130) and Virginia (+220).
Upset predictions for Week 6
Here are 5 upset picks for this week:
Mississippi State over Texas A&M
What would this line be if Tennessee hadn’t scored 2 defensive touchdowns last week against Mississippi State? This Bulldogs team has looked awesome under Jeff Lebby so far this season and I think Texas A&M might be a touch overrated. The Aggies have played Utah State, UTSA, Notre Dame and Auburn. All 4 of those schools rank outside of the top 75 in pass defense efficiency rating. Mississippi State ranks 25th entering this week. A&M’s offense has largely survived thanks to explosive passing plays — what if those dry up vs. Mississippi State? On the other side of the ball, I like Mississippi State’s chances to run the ball efficiently on Texas A&M.
Pick: Mississippi State +450 on bet365
Florida State over Miami
This was a slightly-better price earlier in the week but I think there’s still enough value on betting the Noles following their upset loss to Virginia on Friday. Florida State has an extra day to prepare and coaches will certainly have their players’ attention in practice this week. We saw FSU’s coaching staff completely dominate Alabama in Week 1 — I think it could pull off a similar feat this weekend. Florida State’s offense is clearly excellent (if not elite) and I’m sure the defense will have a plan for Carson Beck, Malachi Toney and Co. In a rivalry game where talent is similar, getting +160 or better feels like a gift.
Pick: Florida State +164 on DraftKings
Wake Forest over Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech beat NC State last weekend in its first game since firing Brent Pry. It was a pretty surprising result, all things considered, particularly since the game was played in Raleigh. With that being said, I think it’s a good time to sell high on a Hokies team that may have benefitted from the notorious “new coach bump” in Week 1 under interim Philip Montgomery. I also like the way Wake Forest has played on defense this season. The Demon Deacons are 32nd nationally in schedule-adjusted EPA per play defense, according to Game on Paper. Wake was a 2-point conversion away from upsetting undefeated Georgia Tech this past weekend and I think we’ll see another good effort from the Deacs in this game.
Pick: Wake Forest +205 on DraftKings
Boston College over Pittsburgh
This bet basically asks a simple question: What if Pittsburgh is really bad? The Panthers have lost their only power-conference games this season, albeit both in relatively close affairs to Louisville and West Virginia. The problem on defense for Pitt has been its secondary (72nd in passing EPA-per-play allowed). That’s not a good matchup against this Boston College team that might have the most underrated passing attack in the country led by former Alabama quarterback Dylan Lonergan. This Boston College offense isn’t perfect — it wasn’t enough to beat Stanford a couple of weeks ago — but it adds enough variance into the equation that I think a money line bet on the Eagles is worthwhile.
Pick: Boston College +200 on BetMGM
Cal over Duke
I’ve been wrong about Duke most weeks (in either direction) but I think now is the right time to fade the Blue Devils. Coming off back-to-back wins, Duke will now travel all the way across the country to take on Cal in a 9:30 p.m. local time kickoff. I also remain a fan of Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele despite his increase in turnovers since the start of ACC play. Duke enters Week 6 ranked 107th nationally in pass defense efficiency rating.
Pick: Cal +130 on bet365
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
