Time to kick off a tradition unlike any other. While the preseason picks are already looking stale after Week 1, we get an eternal mulligan here at Saturday Down South.
The assignment is this — after each week, how does the SEC slate to come stack up? Where do we see the teams of the SEC finishing the regular season given what has gone before?
Here’s our first shot at predicting every team’s final record and, even if not too many things have changed from the preseason, we do have a few clues as to who might be for real and who might not.
Alabama (1-0, beat East Carolina 48-10): 9-3
The Alabama Crimson Tide looked solid on the whole in Week 1. The challenging run of the schedule remains the 4-game October/November grouping of: Georgia, at Tennessee, Texas A&M, and at LSU. Anything better than 2-2 there probably puts the Tide straight into the CFP. But the first 5 weeks might not tell us much about how those games will go.
Arkansas (1-0, beat North Alabama 31-14): 3-9
That wasn’t a pretty Week 1 and at the moment beating Tulsa and picking up one mystery win over the course of the SEC slate looks like the likely result. Long way to go for Ryan Silverfield‘s team.
Auburn (1-0, beat Baylor 17-16): 6-6
The Tigers really almost had to win this game and they barely did. Auburn could manage to start 4-0, but the October run of at Tennessee, at Georgia, LSU, and at Ole Miss looks likely to be an 0-4 run. With Alabama still ahead on the schedule, it’s hard to call for more than 6 wins.
Florida (1-0, beat FAU 66-21): 7-5
The Florida Gators have a relatively doable schedule, although 3 in a row with Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma doesn’t look too comforting. The Gator defense was a little sloppy, but on the whole, this is still a team trending upward.
Georgia (1-0, beat Tennessee State 63-3): 11-1
With the exception of a trip to Alabama, nothing jumps to mind as a game that presents a significant difficulty for the Georgia Bulldogs. Could somebody else trip them up? Sure, but after Week 1, it’s hard to see who.
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Kentucky (1-0, beat Youngstown State 45-13): 5-7
Alabama could bring a dash of cold reality to Kentucky‘s improvement plans. The Wildcats still seem likely to best Vanderbilt, South Alabama, and could spring a pair of SEC upsets or one plus a win over in-state rival Louisville, whose defense didn’t shine too brightly in Week 1.
LSU (1-0, beat Clemson 51-10): 10-2
Was I skeptical about LSU? At least a bit. But at this point, a 3-0 start looks highly likely, and the biggest challenges are a trio of home games with Texas A&M, Alabama, and Texas. A 10-2 season seems pretty attainable… although it could help that Clemson is absolutely awful.
Mississippi State (1-0, beat UL-Monroe 62-13): 5-7
The key for the Mississippi State Bulldogs is the rest of September. Road trips to Minnesota and South Carolina and a home game with Missouri should frame the rest of the slate. If State can go 2-1 over those 3 games, 6 wins is not out of the question. But with an October slate of Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, and Texas ahead, MSU really needs to be better than 2-2 in September to have a bowl season.
Missouri (1-0, beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14): 6-6
The Missouri Tigers likewise need to make hay early. At Kansas, home vs. Troy and at Mississippi State present a real shot at 4-0. But it’s pretty challenging from there, with a road trip to Arkansas and a home game against Kentucky the best shots at 2 more relatively easy wins. The Tigers need to be at least 3-1 if not 4-0 in September or it’ll be a long season.
Oklahoma (1-0, beat UTEP 51-0): 8-4
Michigan on the road looks more like an opportunity than a problem. With a first 2 conference games of at Georgia and against Texas, Oklahoma needs to grab a big early win to keep hopes of a CFP berth alive. While we’re not quite that optimistic yet, it could still very much be in the card.
Ole Miss (1-0, beat Louisville 41-38): 7-5
The defense was awful, Kewan Lacy is banged up, and the SEC slate looks a little more challenging than it did out of the gate. Home games with LSU and Georgia and road trips to Texas and Oklahoma could all be out of reach if the Ole Miss Rebels don’t shape up in a hurry.
South Carolina (1-0, beat Kent State 57-0): 7-5
The South Carolina Gamecocks played well but look to have an up-and-down schedule ahead. Games at Alabama and Oklahoma look tough and home battles with Texas A&M and Georgia would have to be slated as potential losses as well. There’s a possible upside for more, but the late-September game with Alabama is a good measuring stick on that front.
Tennessee (1-0, beat Furman 56-9): 8-4
The Tennessee Volunteers started out well and definitely have some upside, but have to be alert against a desperate Georgia Tech team in Week 2. Home games with Texas, Alabama, and LSU figure to be challenging, as does a trip to A&M. For the moment, put the Vols just outside CFP range… but that could change before the end of September.
Texas (1-0, beat Texas State 59-7): 10-2
Here’s the rub — beat Ohio State in Week 2 and write your CFP ticket. Yes, it’s still a tough SEC schedule, but teams like Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Missouri shouldn’t challenge the Texas Longhorns. The November road games at LSU and A&M could be stumbling blocks, but a focused Texas team is a dangerous Texas team and it could make a massive statement in Week 2.
Texas A&M (1-0, beat Missouri State 50-0): 9-3
The Texas A&M Aggies didn’t hurt themselves in Week 1. The home slate ahead looks pretty favorable, with Tennessee and Texas the most dangerous visitors. The road schedule does include LSU and Oklahoma, but a 2-2 mark in those 4 games seems plausible and would likely leave A&M right on the fringe of the CFP picture.
Vanderbilt (1-0, beat Austin Peay 28-9): 4-8
The last 2 years felt about a million miles away for Vanderbilt. The Commodores need to sweep the nonconference slate because about half of the league games look like no-chance situations. Sweep Delaware and NC State, handle Arkansas at home, and Kentucky and Mississippi State on the road and 6 wins can be had. But after a week, it doesn’t look very likely.
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Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
