Only 2 weeks remain in the SEC season… but there’s still plenty to figure moving ahead.
Next week might be “Cupcake Week,” but then we get to Rivalry Week, where the 2 spots in the SEC Championship Game will be decided.
As usual, here’s our weekly look at where the teams of the SEC current stand and where we still them each finishing the regular season. It’s go time.
Alabama (8-2, 10-2)
Alabama took a rare home loss to Oklahoma, but should have more than enough gas still in the tank to outlast FCS Eastern Illinois and then defeat Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The CFP path is still very much a secure one for the Tide.
Arkansas (2-8, 2-10)
Arkansas had another close, but not quite, moment in Week 12. The Razorbacks have been phenomenally unlucky and there’s no reason to expect that to change with Texas away and Missouri at home still left on the schedule.
Auburn (4-6, 5-7)
Auburn was off this week, but nothing changes in the big picture. Mercer should be a win and Alabama seems just about impossible. The Tigers will take their Iron Bowl shot, but barring an upset, it’s time to talk about a new coach for the Tigers.
Florida (3-7, 4-8)
Florida keeps competing, even if the end result isn’t what it’d like. After being dreadful against Kentucky, Florida pushed Ole Miss well into the fourth quarter before falling. Based on that, we’ll see a UF win in the annual game with Florida State. But that’s about the only good news to be had.
Georgia (9-1, 11-1)
Georgia had a second straight very complete performance. Charlotte will be an easy win and while Georgia Tech is tenacious, they very nearly lost to a Boston College team that has just one win on the season. The Bulldogs’ 7-1 league mark leaves them having already finished conference play in the thick of the SEC title game hunt.
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Kentucky (5-5, 6-6)
Kentucky won its third game in a row and will get the tentative nod to a bowl in our projections. Vandy is beatable, but it’s a suddenly mediocre Louisville team that’s the more likely shot for Kentucky to grab a sixth win. Mark Stoops has seemingly come back from the dead after turning a 2-5 start into a position of some reasonable postseason hope.
LSU (6-4, 7-5)
LSU could still surprise, but as it stands, we see a win over WKU and a loss on the road at Oklahoma. Much as with Florida, the sooner it all ends, the sooner it is on to a new coaching era.
Ole Miss (10-1, 11-1)
Ole Miss is down to a week off and then the Egg Bowl. Ole Miss has allowed some mediocre teams to hang around, but surely the Rebels will be alert for this big battle.
Mississippi State (5-6, 5-7)
Mississippi State also gets a week off. With postseason play on the line, State will have motivation, but its defense was pretty awful against Missouri. Accordingly, we’ve got to stick with 5 wins for the Bulldogs.
Missouri (7-3, 8-4)
Mizzou is another team that we’re sticking at our previous prediction. The Tigers are unlikely to win on the road at Oklahoma, but should be fine at Arkansas to close the regular season.
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Oklahoma (8-2, 10-2)
Oklahoma gets a nice boost with the upset of Alabama. While both teams have the talent, it’s unlikely that either Missouri or LSU (both playing at Oklahoma) have a stout enough team to challenge the Sooners, in which case a 10-2 mark probably leaves Oklahoma in the CFP.
South Carolina (3-7, 4-8)
South Carolina had a great half and an awful half. The end result takes the Gamecocks out of bowl contention. A team that blows a 27-point lead hasn’t done enough to merit a win over Clemson. That game feels like a rock fight, but even if Carolina outlasts Coastal Carolina, there’s no shot at postseason play.
Tennessee (7-3, 9-3)
Tennessee got an easy win, but now has to replicate it against Florida and Vanderbilt. It really is wild to think a CFP spot might be on the line for the Tennessee/Vanderbilt matchup, but that’s probably the world we are living in.
Texas (7-3, 8-4)
Texas was in the spotlight against Georgia and the Horns missed the chance to shore up their fading CFP prospects. They’ll probably best Arkansas, but A&M looks worlds better than UT.
Texas A&M (10-0, 12-0)
The Aggies didn’t quit and, after falling down 30-3, stormed back for a memorable win. Texas A&M should certainly take care of Samford and seems like a solid favorite over Texas to complete a perfect season.
Vanderbilt (8-2, 9-3)
Vanderbilt had a week off, but our prediction won’t change. The 8-2 Commodores will be a solid favorite over Kentucky, but then will have to win in Knoxville to make a final CFP claim. The first is certainly doable, but the second feels very, very difficult.
Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
