Well, that was something.
Top 25 Mississippi State? Kentucky beating a top 10 foe on the road? Vanderbilt winning in arguably the weirdest way ever?
Of course, we had that all on our preseason Bingo cards…. or not. But the beauty of living Saturday to Saturday is we’ll go back to the drawing board and try again.
After a wild Week 3, where do we see the teams of the SEC ending up the regular season? Glad you asked…
Alabama (3-0, beat Florida State 50-36): 10-2
Alabama again kind of played with its food before they ate in a fairly uninspiring win over Florida State, particularly defensively speaking. There was genuine consideration of moving the Tide down a game here, but then, if you recall, the critical run of the season ahead is Georgia, at Tennessee, Texas A&M, and at LSU. The back end of that run suddenly looks considerably easier. So we’ll stick with the Tide to get that 10th win and be solidly in the College Football Playoff picture.
Arkansas (1-2, lost to Georgia 45-17): 2-10
This game wasn’t even as close as the score. Probably the biggest story of the remainder of the season for Arkansas will be how Ryan Silverfield gels with what looks virtually certain to be a new hire in the athletic director position. Short term, even as bad as the Hogs are, Silverfield is a first-year guy who will get his shot. Long term, the shot might get a bit more condensed if Arkansas doesn’t turn a corner in the relatively near future.
Auburn (2-1, lost to Florida 44-39): 5-7
Yes, some of this drop is attributable to Auburn. Josh Pate suggested that Kentucky might be the team that Auburn was expected to be — good enough on defense, but more explosive on offense. The Tigers weren’t good enough on defense against Florida. And while Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and Samford look like solid wins, the 2 most likely sixth-win opportunities suggested last week were Florida and Mississippi State. Not so much anymore. It’s just too hard to find a sixth win for this team at the moment.
Florida (3-0, beat Auburn 44-39): 8-4
Florida might be getting even a little more credit than deserved off the Auburn win. Being favored, even at home, against Ole Miss seems a little optimistic. That said, there’s a solid 8 wins here and a win over either Ole Miss or at Missouri the next week makes a 9-3 mark and a CFP discussion a reality. Florida has answered every question so far, but the competition does make a jump in the next 2 weeks.
Georgia (3-0, beat Arkansas 45-17): 11-1
Nothing changes for the Georgia Bulldogs. Honestly, the best argument against 12-0 is just that, in an SEC this competitive, somebody’s going to upset UGA at some point. But the Bulldogs could well be favored in all 12 games, and stranger things than a 12-0 season have certainly happened.
Kentucky (2-1, beat Texas A&M 31-21): 6-6
Kentucky played for 4 quarters like it did for 2.5 against Alabama. It seemed like the final quarter and a half from Alabama was the real Kentucky, but at this point, it looks like the one that beats A&M and leads Alabama might just be the real Kentucky. This schedule is still brutal, but win over South Alabama this week and beat South Carolina next week and a bowl becomes likely — and an 8-4 type season isn’t out of the question.
LSU (2-1, lost to Ole Miss 32-24): 9-3
LSU at 8-4 seems almost likely given the early struggles against Ole Miss. Texas A&M could definitely send Lane Kiffin into the 7-5, 8-4 trajectory, but for the moment, we’ll keep the Tigers at 9 wins and on the fringes of the CFP situation… but the margin for error ends here.
Mississippi State (3-0, beat South Carolina 41-34): 7-5
Mississippi State grabbed the win that was needed to make a bowl viable. That said, top 25 ranking aside, I still think the run of Alabama, at LSU, Oklahoma, and at Texas in October will be brutal. Win at home against Missouri, though, and a bowl becomes academic, and a 7-5 season becomes the likely outcome, with 8-4 even in play.
Missouri (3-0, beat Troy 27-17): 7-5
The Missouri Tigers were not particularly impressive in Week 3 and can’t afford to keep that trend up. The 2 upcoming games of at Mississippi State and home against Florida suddenly look pretty definitive. Split those and 7-5 looks about right. But lose both and 6 wins suddenly looks optimistic. On the other hand, win both and the Tigers do have a shot to be a Playoff sleeper as A&M and Ole Miss up next both look a little more vulnerable than before.
Oklahoma (2-1, beat New Mexico 14-6): 7-5
At this point, we might start calling Oklahoma “Klahma” because there’s no O involved. Georgia is likely to deliver a beatdown and with Texas next, a 2-3 start makes 6-6 about as likely as even 8-4. The Sooners look like one of the disappointments of the season and Brent Venables‘ pattern of bad-good-bad-good is going to potentially deliver a third awful season in 5 years.
Ole Miss (3-0, LSU 32-24): 9-3
A few things have become clear in regard to the Ole Miss Rebels. Louisville genuinely is very good and having Trinidad Chambliss figures to be a massive weapon in close games. A week ago, we said that if Ole Miss won, the Rebels are a 10-2 team. They might be, but that’s getting walked back just a step… because Ole Miss is now an underdog at Florida. Take care of that game and we’ll go to 10-2. But the Rebs and the CFP may be destined for each other.
South Carolina (2-1, lost to Mississippi State 41-34): 6-6
The South Carolina Gamecocks could be in big trouble. Alabama on the road is a likely loss and Florida on October 10 on the road suddenly looks much tougher. The situation is this: the October 3 home game with Kentucky looks pivotal — not just to the season, but to Shane Beamer‘s job. Lose 4 in a row and there’s no path to 6 wins (and probably no way Beamer stays employed).
Tennessee (3-0, beat Kennesaw State 42-9): 8-4
Tennessee hasn’t had much of a challenge through 3 weeks, but everything changes this week. Beat Texas and likely start 6-0 and the Vols to the CFP discussion gets serious. Lose and it’s going to be another good-not-great season with 1 pivotal loss that probably keeps UT out of the Playoff picture.
Texas (3-0, beat UTSA 30-6): 10-2
Texas has an excellent shot to start 6-0 if the Horns can win in Knoxville. They’re legitimate CFP hopefuls even with a loss, but an 11-1 or 12-0 type season could be in play with a victory. The back end of the schedule still looks strong, so the prediction stays put at 10-2.
Texas A&M (2-1, lost to Kentucky 31-21): 7-5
Texas A&M disappeared from the CFP discussion with a home loss to Kentucky. With a road game at LSU next, this could be a brutal stretch. A home game with Arkansas should provide some relief, but Missouri on the road is no gimme. A&M could bounce back, but last week certainly destroyed any margin for error and showcased some significant weaknesses.
Vanderbilt (3-0, beat NC State 35-31): 4-8
Vanderbilt switched quarterbacks and pulled out a miracle win. But now the SEC is here and with the exception of a home game with Arkansas, there’s not a ton of room for optimism here. Road trips to Kentucky and Mississippi State look a lot tougher than they did coming into Week 3.
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Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
