Another week, a little more clarity.
Florida’s shocking run and Mississippi State’s impressive start both took sideways turns. But no matter what unexpected things happen, we stay on the same course: making our best guess at how the squads of the SEC will finish the 2026 regular season.
With October football underway, here’s how we see things ending up:
Alabama (5-0, beat Mississippi State 56-23): 10-2
Alabama absolutely took care of business and played its best game of the season. It’s a good time, because Georgia has generally looked like the best team in the conference, if not the nation as a whole. Survive the Bulldogs and we could jump to 12-0 on the Tide. But for now, the road trips to Tennessee and LSU give enough cause of concern to be safe at 10-2…. but that could all change on Saturday.
Check out our comparison of Kalshi vs. Polymarket ahead of Week 6 of the college football season.
Arkansas (2-3, lost to Texas A&M 34-7): 2-10
Arkansas consistently looks like the worst team in the conference. Until that changes, the prediction has to be for a slate full of losses.
Auburn (3-2, lost to Tennessee 24-14): 5-7
Auburn is a better team than this record prediction would suggest. But the game at Tennessee was actually one of the better shots toward a sixth win. Taking out likely victories over Arkansas and Samford, bowl eligibility requires a win at Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, or Bama, or a home win over LSU. That looks like 5 losses.
Florida (4-1, lost to Missouri 45-17): 9-3
Florida was the clear disappointment of the week. The defense was awful, Baugh never got going, and the end result was brutal. There was strong consideration of dropping UF to 8-4, but other than Georgia and Texas, the Gators will be favored in their other games, and clearly have the ability to take care of business. But another stinker of a game like this and we’re talking about 8-4 or even 7-5.
Georgia (5-0, beat Vanderbilt 38-14): 11-1
Georgia had a fairly unfocused performance — and won by 24. The matchup with Alabama is one the nation will watch. Don’t take the prediction of a loss as being particularly reflected in Saturday’s game — it just feels like a 12-0 prediction is a lot to bite off with a 9-game schedule in this SEC. The Dawgs remain the top team in the league, and Saturday will show how close that is (or isn’t).
Kentucky (4-1, beat South Carolina 35-34): 7-5
Kentucky dug out of a 17-0 hole and found a way to win on the road. Beating LSU could jump Kentucky into actual CFP consideration. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Depth will affect the Wildcats down the back end of the season, but Will Stein is delivering an outstanding opening act in his tenure in Lexington.
LSU (4-1, beat McNeese 63-14): 9-3
LSU probably will make or break its season in November. The October slate is pretty manageable and could well place the Tigers at 7-1 heading into the last 4 games. But even if it does, Alabama, Texas, and at Tennessee looks like a tough stretch. 10-2 is certainly not outside of the realm of possibility, but LSU hasn’t really beaten a good team yet, so let’s call for 9-3 and pump the brakes a bit.
Mississippi State (4-1, lost to Alabama 56-23): 8-4
Mississippi State finally seemed to hit is ceiling against Bama. No shame there — even if the Bulldogs lose at LSU and Texas, they can very plausibly hit the Egg Bowl at 8-3. This year’s rendition of that classic matchup is already looking like one for the ages.
Missouri (4-1, beat Florida 45-17): 8-4
Mizzou hopped back into the CFP discussion by thumping Florida. The game to watch is the October 17 trip to Ole Miss. Win there, and the Tigers are a legit hopeful. But with a home game with Texas and a trip to Georgia opening November, it’s a must-win to keep Missouri hopeful of a Playoff spot. The good news is that another effort like Week 5 would put the Tigers in good shape.
Oklahoma (2-2, off): 5-7
Oklahoma remains in rough shape. An upcoming battle with Texas leaves a home game with Kentucky on October 17 looking critical. A 2-4 start would leave OU too deep of a hole to reach a bowl game. Even with a win over Kentucky, road trips to Mississippi State, Florida, and Mizzou all look challenging. Add in a home game with Ole Miss and it’s not hard to see a 5-7 season.
Ole Miss (3-1, off): 9-3
Ole Miss still has a very tangible CFP path. Come off this break and beat Vandy on the road and Missouri at home to get to 5-1 and it all flows from there, despite a road trip to Texas and hosting Georgia. But lose that Missouri game and things get a little interesting. That one could springboard the Tigers ahead of the Rebels in the CFP race. Ole Miss hosts the Egg Bowl and that may well end up playing a role in Playoff picking.
South Carolina (2-3, lost to Kentucky 35-34): 5-7
South Carolina apparently can’t fire Shane Beamer, but the Gamecocks can limp through a season that makes them wish they could. With Florida and a trip to Knoxville on deck, a 2-5 start is likely, and it’s easier to see this team ending up 4-8 than 6-6 right now.
Tennessee (4-1, beat Auburn 24-14): 9-3
Tennessee may have ended the Faizon Brandon experiment, at least for the moment. The back end of the schedule is most notable for Alabama and LSU coming to Knoxville. The road trips are not imposing, and the Vols could end up anywhere between 8-4 and 10-2 depending on how things turn out down the stretch. We’ll stick with the midpoint for a 9-3 mark.
Texas (4-0, off): 10-2
Texas was off and nothing much changes. The road trips to Missouri and to LSU both look stout, but Texas feels closer to 11-1 than to 9-3. That said, the October home games with Florida, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State all carry potential danger. We’ll stick with 10-2 for Texas.
Texas A&M (3-2, beat Arkansas 34-7): 6-6
Texas A&M has a clear path to 6 wins. Beat The Citadel, win at South Carolina, and take down Oklahoma on the road. The trips to Missouri and Alabama feel out of reach and the home games with Tennessee and Texas look tough. It may come down to whether Aggies or Sooners are more motivated on November 21.
Vanderbilt (3-2, lost to Georgia 38-14): 4-8
Vanderbilt still has a pulse and is still our pick to beat Arkansas at home.
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Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.
